Missouri at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Missouri logo Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (4:15 PM EST)
Missouri -9.5 (58.0) (-355)  Open: -6.5
Missouri 39 - Mississippi State: 20  (SEC)

 
Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 20 (25 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MIZ 2nd straight Road Game
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri -17.5   (SP+ MIZ -18)

Projected Score: MIZ: 38 - MSST: 20 (55)
MIZ Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
MIZ Travel: 427 miles
Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Missouri vs Murray State-50.562.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Missouri vs Buffalo-34.553.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Missouri vs Boston College-14.551.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.552.0W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Missouri at Texas A&M+3.047.5L 10 - 41ON
Sat 10/12 Missouri at Massachusetts-27.054.0W 45 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Missouri vs Auburn-3.549.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 10/26 Missouri at Alabama+16.051.5L 0 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.541.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 11/16 Missouri at South Carolina+10.542.5L 30 - 34OY
Sat 11/23 Missouri at Mississippi State-9.558.0W 39 - 20OY
Sat 11/30 Missouri vs Arkansas-3.551.5W 28 - 21UY
Mon 12/30 Missouri vs Iowa-1.041.0W 27 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30UN
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39ON
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26UY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIZ#21 (.29)46% (26)28.945% (48)3.06 (82)17248% (13)2614.51 (22)#47 (.15)37% (19)20.435% (13)39% (30)3.93 (81)54.20.71.5
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)25.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)34.142% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIZ Offense1328.924.846.1%4.510.7224331722614.554%46%45%48%13%.29
MSST Defense1234.134.942.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIZ Defense1320.426.436.8%3.931.5 - - - - - 46%54%35%39%19%.15
MSST Offense1225.830.735.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri1330:2421.543%73%7.254.20.71.56.12.8128.6
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense1354% (40)45% (48)38.2171.84.525 (37).18 (50)3.06 (82)75% (52)9% (46)0.97 (84)
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense1346% (18)35% (13) - - - - .08 (33)2.74 (17)71% (56)13% (11)1.06 (97)
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense1346% (93)48% (13)1928.9261.2913.723 (51)7 (21).44 (18)1.7 (42)31% (46)36% (21).46 (29)5% (16)2 (69)
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense1354% (118)39% (30) - - - - - - 9 (87).23 (46)1.6 (58)36% (21)25% (15).18 (12)6% (64)1.9 (19)
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 11.81 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 846.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 11.81   Mississippi State: -4.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 14.0   Mississippi State: -4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Missouri Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 38
Mississippi State 20


Projected Total Points: 55
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Mississippi State20Missouri39MissouriMissouri -9.5Missouri58.0Over
202012/19Mississippi State51Missouri32Mississippi StateMissouri -1.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201511/05Missouri13Mississippi State31Mississippi StateMississippi State -7.5Mississippi State41.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State223 Overs
Missouri110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#26) Missouri Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.81 #26
Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20
Talent Rating: 846.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #23
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Missouri Notes
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
Missouri     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #26
#101
Off #55
#100
Def #33
#130
Talent #22
#43
SP+ #19
#88
SP+ Off #23
#82
SP+ Def #20
#98

Rematch from Week 13
Missouri 9.5 (58.0)
Missouri won at Mississippi State this year (39-20)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Mississippi State last year (39-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61°

Team Information
Injuries: MIZ | MSST
Depth Chart: MIZ | MSST
Rosters: MIZ | MSST
(#101) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy


  
Missouri's OC Kirby Moore
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)498260%391334.8
Marquis Johnson010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Noel (Tr)16381835.064
Marcus Carroll (Tr)140595124.335
Jamal Roberts5321634.114
Kewan Lacy2310404.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquis Johnson25352114.149
Brett Norfleet2623529.036
Joshua Manning13192114.863
Daniel Blood881010.121

View Missouri's Full Roster
Missouri's DC Corey Batoon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Flagg Jr.815110
Triston Newson727241
Marvin Burks Jr.662002
Daylan Carnell515006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Young (Tr)416353
Chris McClellan (Tr)396332
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)123220
Jahkai Lang122200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daylan Carnell515006
Nicholas Deloach Jr.231004
Toriano Pride220004

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.14025655%18861177.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)7410869%974819.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth (Tr)15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Keyvone Lee2914014.818
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)25391215.649
Mario Craver17368321.672

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakari Tillman304412
Branden Jennings565242
Ty Cooper292110
Kalvin Dinkins21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brice Pollock481007
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123