Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field - Fayetteville, AR (SEC)
Bulldogs (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (34 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (34 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
ARK 3rd straight Home Game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas -4 (SP+ ARK -5)
Projected Score: MSST: 27 - ARK: 31 (58)
ARK Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas -4 (SP+ ARK -5)
Projected Score: MSST: 27 - ARK: 31 (58)
ARK Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
Razorbacks (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 48 - 21 (52 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 48 - 21 (52 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
| Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Mississippi State at Southern Miss | -11.5 | 59.5 | W 34 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Mississippi State vs Arizona State | +6.0 | 58.5 | W 24 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | Mississippi State vs Alcorn State | -42.5 | 56.5 | W 63 - 0 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois | -21.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee | +5.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | +11 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Mississippi State at Florida | +5.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Mississippi State vs Texas | +7 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Mississippi State at Arkansas | +4 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Mississippi State vs Georgia | +9.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Mississippi State at Missouri | +12 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Mississippi State vs Ole Miss | +6 | |||||
Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Arkansas's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas vs Alabama A&M | -45.5 | 62.5 | W 52 - 7 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas vs Arkansas State | -23.5 | 62.0 | W 56 - 14 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +3.5 | 60.5 | L 35 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas at Memphis | -7.0 | 63.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas vs Notre Dame | +0 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Arkansas at Tennessee | +9 | |||||
| Sat 10/18 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +4.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas vs Auburn | +6 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -4 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Arkansas at LSU | +10 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Arkansas at Texas | +11 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +6 | |||||
Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | #26 (.36) | 50% (33) | 40.3 | 56% (18) | 3.14 (53) | 179 | 44% (62) | 263 | 4.94 (33) | #32 (.02) | 38% (57) | 12.3 | 43% (87) | 32% (29) | 3.4 (65) | 84.7 | 0.7 | 2 |
| ARK | #5 (.55) | 56% (12) | 47.7 | 58% (12) | 3.98 (3) | 245 | 56% (13) | 324 | 5.55 (11) | #108 (.22) | 49% (122) | 20.7 | 57% (133) | 42% (82) | 3.93 (86) | 54 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | #78 (.17) | 39% (109) | 40% (105) | 2.9 (93) | 139 | 38% (104) | 239 | 3.75 (86) | #130 (.32) | 50% (133) | 47% (108) | 55% (134) | 4.32 (113) | 60.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | ||
| ARK | #27 (.25) | 48% (13) | 52% (5) | 3.23 (38) | 168 | 44% (41) | 248 | 3.95 (64) | #45 (.13) | 42% (66) | 39% (32) | 44% (100) | 3.31 (22) | 56.3 | 1.7 | 1 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Offense | 3 | 40.3 | 34 | 49.7% | 4.94 | 0.7 | 21 | 441 | 179 | 263 | 5 | 50% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 15% | .36 |
| ARK Defense | 3 | 20.7 | 7 | 48.7% | 3.93 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 46% | 54% | 57% | 42% | 19% | .22 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Defense | 3 | 12.3 | 17 | 37.7% | 3.4 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 58% | 42% | 43% | 32% | 18% | .02 |
| ARK Offense | 3 | 47.7 | 52 | 56.5% | 5.55 | 1 | 29 | 569 | 245 | 324 | 6.9 | 47% | 52% | 58% | 56% | 11% | .55 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 3 | 23:05 | 21 | 55% | 50% | 10 | 84.7 | 0.7 | 2 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | 34.5 |
| Arkansas | 3 | 29:57 | 29 | 72% | 0% | 6 | 54 | 1 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0 | 27.1 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Offense | 3 | 50% (74) | 56% (18) | 36 | 178.7 | 5 | 9 (17) | .26 (36) | 3.14 (53) | 57% (114) | 7% (32) | 0.95 (72) |
| ARK Defense | 3 | 46% (40) | 57% (133) | - | - | - | - | .16 (104) | 2.78 (69) | 76% (96) | 11% (51) | 0.71 (18) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Defense | 3 | 58% (119) | 43% (87) | - | - | - | - | -.02 (41) | 3.03 (93) | 58% (32) | 9% (79) | 0.75 (25) |
| ARK Offense | 3 | 47% (89) | 58% (12) | 35.3 | 245.3 | 6.9 | 8 (26) | .51 (3) | 3.98 (3) | 100% (1) | 5% (10) | 1.24 (24) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Offense | 3 | 50% (64) | 44% (62) | 19.7 | 29.3 | 262.7 | 9 | 13.4 | 7 (23) | 2 (60) | .46 (33) | 1.8 (13) | 29% (59) | 38% (33) | .72 (16) | 8% (120) | 2.7 (4) |
| ARK Defense | 3 | 54% (99) | 42% (82) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 (56) | .28 (91) | 1.6 (91) | 27% (123) | 37% (118) | .46 (109) | 8% (26) | 1.9 (62) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST Defense | 3 | 42% (18) | 32% (29) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (12) | .09 (34) | 1.5 (63) | 32% (84) | 21% (30) | .07 (27) | 9% (16) | 2 (66) |
| ARK Offense | 3 | 52% (49) | 56% (13) | 22.7 | 33.3 | 324 | 9.7 | 14.3 | 12 (3) | 2 (60) | .63 (13) | 1.7 (30) | 28% (48) | 52% (2) | .84 (6) | 6% (96) | 2.2 (47) |
Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 20.59 Arkansas: 18.475
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.7 Arkansas: 13.9
Mississippi State: 20.59 Arkansas: 18.475
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.7 Arkansas: 13.9
Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 18.475 #34
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Arkansas's Power Rating: 18.475 #34
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 17
Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 17
Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 31
Mississippi State 27
Total Points: 58
Arkansas 31
Mississippi State 27
Total Points: 58
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 7
Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 7
Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/26 | Mississippi State | 25 | Arkansas | 58 | Arkansas | Arkansas -7.5 | Arkansas | 55.0 | Over |
| 2023 | 10/21 | Arkansas | 3 | Mississippi State | 7 | Mississippi State | Arkansas -6.5 | Mississippi State | 46.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 10/08 | Mississippi State | 40 | Arkansas | 17 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -8 | Mississippi State | 55.5 | Over |
| 2021 | 11/06 | Arkansas | 31 | Mississippi State | 28 | Arkansas | Arkansas -4 | Mississippi State | 54.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/03 | Mississippi State | 14 | Arkansas | 21 | Arkansas | Mississippi State -16.5 | Arkansas | 68.0 | Under |
| 2019 | 11/02 | Arkansas | 24 | Mississippi State | 54 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -7 | Mississippi State | 59.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 11/17 | Mississippi State | 52 | Arkansas | 6 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -22.5 | Mississippi State | 49.0 | Over |
| 2017 | 11/18 | Arkansas | 21 | Mississippi State | 28 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -14 | Arkansas | 56.0 | Under |
| 2016 | 11/19 | Mississippi State | 42 | Arkansas | 58 | Arkansas | Mississippi State -1 | Arkansas | 57.5 | Over |
| 2015 | 11/21 | Arkansas | 50 | Mississippi State | 51 | Mississippi State | Arkansas -3 | Mississippi State | 59.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/01 | Mississippi State | 17 | Arkansas | 10 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -14 | Arkansas | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/23 | Arkansas | 17 | Mississippi State | 24 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State -3 | Mississippi State | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/17 | Mississippi State | 45 | Arkansas | 14 | Mississippi State | ||||
| 2011 | 11/19 | Arkansas | 44 | Mississippi State | 17 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2010 | 11/20 | Mississippi State | 31 | Arkansas | 38 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2009 | 11/21 | Arkansas | 42 | Mississippi State | 21 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2008 | 11/22 | Mississippi State | 31 | Arkansas | 28 | Mississippi State | ||||
| 2007 | 11/17 | Arkansas | 45 | Mississippi State | 31 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2006 | 11/18 | Mississippi State | 14 | Arkansas | 28 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2005 | 11/19 | Arkansas | 44 | Mississippi State | 10 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2004 | 11/20 | Mississippi State | 21 | Arkansas | 24 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2003 | 11/22 | Arkansas | 52 | Mississippi State | 6 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2001 | 11/17 | Arkansas | 24 | Mississippi State | 21 | Arkansas | ||||
| 2000 | 11/17 | Mississippi State | 10 | Arkansas | 17 | Arkansas |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 14 | 5 | 7 Overs |
| Mississippi State | 10 | 7 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 12 - 12 | 3 - 9 | 2 - 6 | 1 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 12 - 12 | 9 - 3 | 3 - 1 | 6 - 2 |
(#28) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Mississippi State has lost 5 straight
Mississippi State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated
Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Mississippi State has lost 5 straight
Mississippi State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated
Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | ARK | MSST |
| OverallOver | #17 | #38 |
| OffenseOff | #15 | #46 |
| DefenseDef | #39 | #38 |
| Special TeamsST | #34 | #84 |
| PassingPass | #20 | #28 |
| RushingRush | #6 | #13 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #52 | #79 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #14 | #46 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #38 | #65 |
| TacklingTkl | #16 | #39 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #61 | #36 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #16 | #75 |
| Coverage DefCov | #36 | #20 |
Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: MSST | ARK
Depth Chart: MSST | ARK
Rosters: MSST | ARK
(#34) Arkansas Info
Power Rating: 18.475 #34
Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.55 PPO
Great Run Success 58%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 57%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas has lost 6 straight
Arkansas has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Arkansas Notes
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's
Arkansas Highlights
Arkansas is Undefeated at Home
Arkansas has Really Good Running Game (#8)
Arkansas offense is efficent (#12)
Arkansas offense is explosive (#15)
Arkansas has a top Offensive Line (#3)
Arkansas offense is good in red zone (#11)
Arkansas offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)
Arkansas Secondary is very good (#26)
Arkansas Deficiencies
Arkansas has a bad defense (#122)
Power Rating: 18.475 #34
Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.55 PPO
Great Run Success 58%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 57%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas has lost 6 straight
Arkansas has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Arkansas Notes
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's
Arkansas Highlights
Arkansas is Undefeated at Home
Arkansas has Really Good Running Game (#8)
Arkansas offense is efficent (#12)
Arkansas offense is explosive (#15)
Arkansas has a top Offensive Line (#3)
Arkansas offense is good in red zone (#11)
Arkansas offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)
Arkansas Secondary is very good (#26)
Arkansas Deficiencies
Arkansas has a bad defense (#122)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Shapen | 55 | 81 | 68% | 722 | 6 | 2 | 8.9 |
| Luke Kromenhoek (Tr) | 2 | 4 | 50% | 20 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluff Bothwell (Tr) | 30 | 170 | 4 | 5.7 | 25 |
| Davon Booth | 27 | 126 | 1 | 4.7 | 16 |
| Xavier Gayten | 4 | 50 | 1 | 12.5 | 25 |
| Johnnie Daniels | 9 | 44 | 0 | 4.9 | 13 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenen Thompson (Tr) | 15 | 278 | 3 | 18.5 | 58 |
| Anthony Evans III (Tr) | 17 | 210 | 2 | 12.4 | 48 |
| Jordan Mosley | 3 | 94 | 1 | 31.3 | 75 |
| Seydou Traore | 5 | 77 | 1 | 15.4 | 55 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Smith | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nic Mitchell | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Gullette (Tr) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahron Manning (Tr) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Whitson (Tr) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Anderson | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darron Reed Jr. (Tr) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Joseph Head Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelley Jones | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| DeAgo Brumfeld | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylen Green | 63 | 92 | 69% | 866 | 11 | 2 | 9.4 |
| KJ Jackson | 5 | 7 | 71% | 106 | 1 | 0 | 15.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylen Green | 32 | 307 | 2 | 9.6 | 64 |
| Michael Washington | 31 | 260 | 3 | 8.4 | 53 |
| Braylen Russell | 25 | 103 | 2 | 4.1 | 8 |
| Rodney Hill | 7 | 37 | 0 | 5.3 | 18 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Mega Blake (Tr) | 18 | 266 | 3 | 14.8 | 30 |
| Jalen Brown (Tr) | 10 | 114 | 2 | 11.4 | 29 |
| CJ Brown | 9 | 111 | 2 | 12.3 | 26 |
| Raylen Sharpe (Tr) | 7 | 107 | 2 | 15.3 | 37 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavian Sorey Jr. | 23 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Stephen Dix Jr. | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Neal (Tr) | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Caleb Wooden (Tr) | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Rhodes Jr. | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Phillip Lee (Tr) | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Miguel Mitchell | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shakur Smalls (Tr) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Neal (Tr) | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kani Walker (Tr) | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Keshawn Davila | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |