Mississippi State at Arkansas - 2025 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, November 1st 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -5.5 (66.5) (-205) Open: -3.5
Mississippi State 38 - Arkansas: 35 (SEC)

Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

ARK 3rd straight Home Game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas -2 (SP+ ARK -1)
Projected Score: MSST: 31 - ARK: 33 (64)
ARK Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 355 miles

Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-11.5	59.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+6.0	58.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-42.5	56.5	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+7.5	63.5	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+17.5	57.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+9.5	50.5	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+8.5	48.5	L 38 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+5.5	66.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+9.5	56.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+7.5	50.5	L 27 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+7.5	62.5	L 19 - 38	U	N
Fri 1/2	Mississippi State vs Wake Forest	-3.0	52.5	L 29 - 43	O	N

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas vs Alabama A&M	-45.5	62.5	W 52 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Arkansas vs Arkansas State	-23.5	62.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+3.5	60.5	L 35 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Arkansas at Memphis	-7.0	59.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas vs Notre Dame	+5.5	64.5	L 13 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arkansas at Tennessee	+10.0	68.5	L 31 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+7.5	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	55.5	L 24 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/1	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-5.5	66.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arkansas at LSU	+4.0	58.5	L 22 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Arkansas at Texas	+10.5	57.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/29	Arkansas vs Missouri	+4.5	54.5	L 17 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	30.4	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	30.2	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)	32.9	52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)	33.8	39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	30.4	25.8	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
ARK Defense	13	33.8	35	41.5%	3.31	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	44%	14%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	30.2	31	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
ARK Offense	13	32.9	30.5	48.2%	3.95	1.7	23	416	168	248	4.9	51%	48%	52%	44%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Arkansas	13	28:07	22.6	43%	59%	6.4	56.3	1.7	1	4.4	1.9	0	27.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
ARK Defense	13	50% (64)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.84 (42)	79% (104)	8% (123)	0.82 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)
ARK Offense	13	51% (64)	52% (5)	34.4	167.9	4.9	32 (14)	.21 (29)	3.23 (38)	82% (13)	12% (109)	0.97 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
ARK Defense	13	50% (70)	44% (100)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.28 (92)	1.5 (43)	33% (48)	27% (23)	.2 (25)	7% (45)	1.9 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
ARK Offense	13	48% (71)	44% (41)	18.8	30.2	248.4	8.2	13.2	14 (108)	9 (48)	.3 (46)	1.6 (42)	32% (72)	37% (17)	.43 (25)	7% (106)	2.2 (25)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 11.40 #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94 #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 11.40 Arkansas: 9.605

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1 Arkansas: 5.1

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 9.605 #43
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.32 #14
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 15.21 #80
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #53
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas 33
Mississippi State 31

Projected Total Points: 64

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Arkansas	35	Mississippi State	38	Arkansas -5.5	Mississippi State	66.5	Over
2024	10/26	Mississippi State	25	Arkansas	58	Arkansas -7.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2023	10/21	Arkansas	3	Mississippi State	7	Arkansas -6.5	Mississippi State	46.5	Under
2022	10/08	Mississippi State	40	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State -8	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2021	11/06	Arkansas	31	Mississippi State	28	Arkansas -4	Mississippi State	54.0	Over
2020	10/03	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State -16.5	Arkansas	68.0	Under
2019	11/02	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	54	Mississippi State -7	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2018	11/17	Mississippi State	52	Arkansas	6	Mississippi State -22.5	Mississippi State	49.0	Over
2017	11/18	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	56.0	Under
2016	11/19	Mississippi State	42	Arkansas	58	Mississippi State -1	Arkansas	57.5	Over
2015	11/21	Arkansas	50	Mississippi State	51	Arkansas -3	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2014	11/01	Mississippi State	17	Arkansas	10	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State	24	Mississippi State -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/17	Mississippi State	45	Arkansas	14
2011	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	17
2010	11/20	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	38
2009	11/21	Arkansas	42	Mississippi State	21
2008	11/22	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	28
2007	11/17	Arkansas	45	Mississippi State	31
2006	11/18	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	28
2005	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	10
2004	11/20	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas	24
2003	11/22	Arkansas	52	Mississippi State	6
2001	11/17	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	21
2000	11/17	Mississippi State	10	Arkansas	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	14	5	8 Overs
Mississippi State	11	8	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	3 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	10 - 3	3 - 1	7 - 2

(#38) MSST at (#43) ARK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	ARK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#38	#43
SP+SP+	#58	#53
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#77
OffenseOff	#84	#42
DefenseDef	#119	#112
Spec TeamsST	#77	#116
TalentTal	#40	#48
Blue ChipsBC%	#27	#33

Mississippi State Notes(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report

Arkansas Notes(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#112
SuccessSuc	#109	#66
ExplosiveExp	#6	#29
PPAPPA	#78	#45
PowerPwr	#24	#80
SP+SP+	#39	#99
Pts POPPO	#86	#22
HavocHav	#127	#101

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#68	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#32
Run ExplRExp	#28	#8
PPAExp	#92	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#42
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#112
TackleTak	-	#19

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#100
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#43
PPAExp	#76	#92
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#69
F7 HavocF7	#122	#123
DB HavocDB	#116	#45

Arkansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#42	#119
SuccessSuc	#13	#133
ExplosiveExp	#80	#18
PPAPPA	#27	#130
PowerPwr	#14	#43
SP+SP+	#16	#84
Pts POPPO	#64	#113
HavocHav	#114	#134

Arkansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#2	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#5	#108
Run ExplRExp	#67	#13
PPAExp	#29	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#70	-
OL YdsOLY	#38	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#114
TackleTak	-	#96

Arkansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#67	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#48
PPAExp	#46	#134
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#132
F7 HavocF7	#109	#133
DB HavocDB	#106	#123

Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 59° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Arkansas -5.5 (66.5)
Mississippi State won at Arkansas this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arkansas last year (38-35)
Arkansas beat Mississippi State in 2024 (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	195	304	64%	2436	15	8	8.0
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	142	677	6	4.8	43
Davon Booth	136	552	7	4.1	22
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)	57	1054	6	18.5	58
Anthony Evans III (Tr)	67	831	4	12.4	57
Seydou Traore	35	372	5	10.6	55
Ayden Williams (Tr)	21	252	0	12.0	49

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahron Manning (Tr)	91	4	0	0	5
Nic Mitchell	78	5	3	2	0
Brylan Lanier	67	3	1	0	2
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Mitchell	78	5	3	2	0
Will Whitson (Tr)	8	5	2	0	0
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)	21	2	2	3	1
Malick Sylla (Tr)	33	7	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Jahron Manning (Tr)	91	4	0	5
DeAgo Brumfeld	36	1	1	4

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	198	326	61%	2714	19	11	8.3
KJ Jackson	33	54	61%	441	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Washington	168	1068	8	6.4	57
Taylen Green	138	779	8	5.6	64
Braylen Russell	55	286	5	5.2	23
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	6	54	0	9.0	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	57	760	5	13.3	36
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	41	592	3	14.4	58
Rohan Jones (Tr)	19	519	4	27.3	62
CJ Brown	28	319	3	11.4	26

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr.	81	8	3	3	3
Stephen Dix Jr.	79	4	1	0	0
Larry Worth	64	1	0	0	1
Caleb Wooden (Tr)	59	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.	43	16	8	6	0
Phillip Lee (Tr)	31	6	4	4	0
Xavian Sorey Jr.	81	8	3	3	3
Bradley Shaw	50	5	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kani Walker (Tr)	52	3	1	0	11
Julian Neal (Tr)	55	2	0	0	10
Jordan Young (Tr)	28	0	0	1	6