Mississippi State at Arkansas Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field - Fayetteville, AR  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
ARK 3rd straight Home Game
ARK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas -10.5   (SP+ ARK -8)
Projected Score: MSST: 22 - ARK: 33 (58)
ARK Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
Razorbacks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (24 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-14.00.0
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+11
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-25
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-14.5
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+13.5
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+23
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+20.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+24.5
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+10.5
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+23.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+14

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-33
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+11.5
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-5
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.5
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+10
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn+5
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+18.5
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+21.5
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+1

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)30.952% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)2539% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
ARK Defense132528.741.5%3.311 - - - - - 50%50%39%44%14%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13350.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
ARK Offense1330.923.748.2%3.951.7234161682484.951%48%52%44%19%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Arkansas1328:0722.643%59%6.456.31.714.41.9027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
ARK Defense1350% (64)39% (32) - - - - -.01 (11)2.84 (42)79% (104)8% (123)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
ARK Offense1351% (64)52% (5)34.4167.94.932 (14).21 (29)3.23 (38)82% (13)12% (109)0.97 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
ARK Defense1350% (70)44% (100) - - - - - - 8 (93).28 (92)1.5 (43)33% (48)27% (23).2 (25)7% (45)1.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
ARK Offense1348% (71)44% (41)18.830.2248.48.213.214 (108)9 (48).3 (46)1.6 (42)32% (72)37% (17).43 (25)7% (106)2.2 (25)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.30   Arkansas: 11.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -1.4   Arkansas: 7.0




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 11.92 #29
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 21.75 #28
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 9.91 #37
2025 Talent Rating: 806.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0 #38
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #40

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 33
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 58
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Mississippi State25Arkansas58ArkansasArkansas -7.5Arkansas55.0Over
202310/21Arkansas3Mississippi State7Mississippi StateArkansas -6.5Mississippi State46.5Under
202210/08Mississippi State40Arkansas17Mississippi StateMississippi State -8Mississippi State55.5Over
202111/06Arkansas31Mississippi State28ArkansasArkansas -4Mississippi State54.0Over
202010/03Mississippi State14Arkansas21ArkansasMississippi State -16.5Arkansas68.0Under
201911/02Arkansas24Mississippi State54Mississippi StateMississippi State -7Mississippi State59.0Over
201811/17Mississippi State52Arkansas6Mississippi StateMississippi State -22.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201711/18Arkansas21Mississippi State28Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas56.0Under
201611/19Mississippi State42Arkansas58ArkansasMississippi State -1Arkansas57.5Over
201511/21Arkansas50Mississippi State51Mississippi StateArkansas -3Mississippi State59.0Over
201411/01Mississippi State17Arkansas10Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas0
201311/23Arkansas17Mississippi State24Mississippi StateMississippi State -3Mississippi State0
201211/17Mississippi State45Arkansas14Mississippi State
201111/19Arkansas44Mississippi State17Arkansas
201011/20Mississippi State31Arkansas38Arkansas
200911/21Arkansas42Mississippi State21Arkansas
200811/22Mississippi State31Arkansas28Mississippi State
200711/17Arkansas45Mississippi State31Arkansas
200611/18Mississippi State14Arkansas28Arkansas
200511/19Arkansas44Mississippi State10Arkansas
200411/20Mississippi State21Arkansas24Arkansas
200311/22Arkansas52Mississippi State6Arkansas
200111/17Arkansas24Mississippi State21Arkansas
200011/17Mississippi State10Arkansas17Arkansas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas1457 Overs
Mississippi State1073 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#55) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72
Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Mississippi State Notes
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
(3/18) OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
(3/18) Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?
Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Arkansas
Power #55
#29
Off #38
#28
Def #71
#37
Talent #48
#47
SP+ #71
#38
SP+ Off #60
#37
SP+ Def #72
#40

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | ARK
Depth Chart: MSST | ARK
Rosters: MSST | ARK
(#29) Arkansas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.92 #29
Offense Rating: 21.75 #28
Defense Rating: 9.91 #37
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #40
Talent Rating: 806.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.95 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 42%
Great in Scoring Position 3.31 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Arkansas Notes
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/23) Def front 7 biggest issue, DL 5 portal adds
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's
(3/18) HC Pittman hotseat again. Petrino stab coming?


  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)448452%502326.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)112834137.459
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Markus Allen (Tr)42636315.178
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Cam Thompson (Tr)27388314.454
Seydou Traore34361110.632

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning (Tr)856103
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)85520
Zakari Tillman304412
Will Whitson (Tr)204220
Raishein Thomas (Tr)122201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayven Williams (Tr)292214
Jahron Manning (Tr)856103
Isaac Smith1272003

Arkansas's OC Bobby Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green23038160%31531598.3
KJ Jackson44100%590014.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington15871384.547
Taylen Green15660283.941
Braylen Russell6735435.375
Rodney Hill2818426.670
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)32795924.875
Kameran Shanks62656610.667
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Ismael Cisse (Tr)2624129.325

View Arkansas's Full Roster
Arkansas's DC Travis Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.9910231
Stephen Dix Jr.703231
Quentavius Scandrett (Tr)540012
Larry Worth532102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee (Tr)3011571
Xavian Sorey Jr.9910231
Stephen Dix Jr.703231
Ken Talley (Tr)62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)242006
Jordan Young (Tr)351005
Julian Neal (Tr)324104