Kentucky at Mississippi State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo   Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Mississippi State logo
Saturday, October 30th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -1 (47.0)
Mississippi State 31 - Kentucky: 17  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mark Stoops (52 - 50)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UK coming off BYE
Our Line: -1  (SP+ UK -3)
Projected Score: UK: 23 - MSST: 30 (53)
MSST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Kentucky vs UL Monroe-31.054.0W 45 - 10OY
Sat 9/11 Kentucky vs Missouri-5.556.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 9/18 Kentucky vs Chattanooga-33.548.0W 28 - 23ON
Sat 9/25 Kentucky at South Carolina-4.549.0W 16 - 10UY
Sat 10/2 Kentucky vs Florida+7.556.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/9 Kentucky vs LSU-2.050.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 10/16 Kentucky at Georgia+21.544.5L 13 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Kentucky at Mississippi State+1.047.0L 17 - 31ON
Sat 11/6 Kentucky vs Tennessee+1.057.5L 42 - 45ON
Sat 11/13 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-21.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 11/20 Kentucky vs New Mexico State-35.561.0W 56 - 16OY
Sat 11/27 Kentucky at Louisville+3.058.0W 52 - 21OY
Sat 1/1 Kentucky vs Iowa-3.043.5W 20 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech-20.552.5W 35 - 34ON
Sat 9/11 Mississippi State vs NC State+1.555.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/18 Mississippi State at Memphis-3.063.0L 29 - 31UN
Sat 9/25 Mississippi State vs LSU+1.554.5L 25 - 28UN
Sat 10/2 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+7.045.5W 26 - 22OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Mississippi State vs Alabama+17.559.5L 9 - 49UN
Sat 10/23 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt-21.053.0W 45 - 6UY
Sat 10/30 Mississippi State vs Kentucky-1.047.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/6 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4.054.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 11/13 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.051.0W 43 - 34OY
Sat 11/20 Mississippi State vs Tennessee State-44.056.5W 55 - 10OY
Thu 11/25 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-2.565.0L 21 - 31UN
Tue 12/28 Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK.1243%2349%3.0719635%1223.33.1345%26.444%46%3.57561.12
MSST.0541%30.447%34440%2962.9.1141%30.242%40%3.1860.22.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense112310.843.4%3.331.1173181961224.961%38%49%35%14%.12
MSST Defense1130.227.941.1%3.181.5 - - - - - 47%53%42%40%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1126.431.845.3%3.572 - - - - - 50%50%44%46%14%.13
MSST Offense1130.433.941.2%2.92.319340442962.423%77%47%40%20%.05

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1131:0017.337%47%5.7561.124.91.4327.7
Mississippi State1130:5418.832%57%6.560.22.31.55.52.3227.6
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1161%49%39.8196.44.919.183.0775%9%0.94
MSST Defense1147%42% - - - - .042.8165%9%0.85
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1150%44% - - - - .052.8659%9%0.83
MSST Offense1123%47%18.544.12.48.06374%9%0.76

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1138%35%1321.9121.85.69.475.041.328%22%.155%1.9
MSST Defense1153%40% - - - - - - 10.181.730%31%.347%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1150%46% - - - - - - 16.211.428%36%.395%1.9
MSST Offense1177%40%33.950.6296.35.98.71718.051.231%28%.2311%2.2

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: NR
Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Kentucky's 2021 Expected Record: -
Kentucky's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #21
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3  #35

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky:    Mississippi State: 7.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 13.4   Mississippi State: 10.5




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 7.75 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 30
Kentucky 23

Projected Total Points: 53
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Mississippi State3Kentucky24Kentucky -5.5Kentucky44.5Under
202210/15Kentucky27Mississippi State17Mississippi State -3.5Kentucky50.5Under
202110/30Mississippi State31Kentucky17Mississippi State -1Mississippi State47.0Over
202010/10Kentucky24Mississippi State2Kentucky -3.5Kentucky57.5Under
201909/21Mississippi State28Kentucky13Mississippi State -5.5Mississippi State48.0Under
201809/22Kentucky28Mississippi State7Mississippi State -9.5Kentucky56.0Under
201710/21Mississippi State45Kentucky7Mississippi State -14Mississippi State54.5Under
201610/22Kentucky40Mississippi State38Mississippi State -1.5Kentucky54.5Over
201510/24Mississippi State42Kentucky16Mississippi State -11.5Mississippi State59.0Under
201410/25Kentucky31Mississippi State45Mississippi State -13Mississippi State0
201310/24Mississippi State28Kentucky22Mississippi State -11Kentucky0
201210/06Kentucky14Mississippi State27
201110/29Kentucky16Mississippi State28
201010/30Mississippi State24Kentucky17
200910/31Kentucky24Mississippi State31
200811/01Mississippi State13Kentucky14
200710/27Kentucky14Mississippi State31
200610/28Mississippi State31Kentucky34
200510/29Kentucky13Mississippi State7
200410/30Mississippi State22Kentucky7
200310/25Kentucky42Mississippi State17
200211/02Mississippi State24Kentucky45
200111/03Mississippi State17Kentucky14
200011/03Kentucky17Mississippi State35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1452 Overs
Kentucky1067 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 108 - 35 - 13 - 2
Road Teams10 - 143 - 82 - 31 - 5

(#) UK at (#) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #23 #34
Perf GradeGrade #18 #65
OffenseOff #4 #65
DefenseDef #71 #64
Spec TeamsST #60 #75
TalentTal #30 #29
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Kentucky on Offense
CategoryCat
UK OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #4 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #21 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Kentucky Run Game
CategoryCat
UK OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #18 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #10 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Kentucky Pass Game
CategoryCat
UK OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #22 #46
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #14 #89
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCatMSST OffUK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #65 #71
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #35
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffUK Def
Run GameRun #119 #66
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCatMSST OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #9 #76
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #5 #73
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

UK 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Mississippi State -1.0 (47.0)
Mississippi State won vs Kentucky this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)

  
UK's OC Liam Coen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD