Massachusetts at Mississippi State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -19.5 (59.5) (-1200) Open: -22.5
Mississippi State 45 - Massachusetts: 20

Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 3rd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Mississippi State -14.5 (SP+ MSST -18)
Projected Score: UMASS: 22 - MSST: 37 (59)
MSST Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
UMASS Travel: 1077 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	-2.5	49.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/7	Massachusetts at Toledo	+17.5	50.5	L 23 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Massachusetts at Buffalo	+3.5	45.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/21	Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut	-19.5	52.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Massachusetts at Miami (OH)	+15.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Massachusetts at Northern Illinois	+14.0	41.0	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Massachusetts vs Missouri	+27.0	54.0	L 3 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Massachusetts vs Wagner	-23.0	48.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Massachusetts at Mississippi State	+19.5	59.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+17.0	53.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Massachusetts at Georgia	+42.5	55.5	L 21 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Massachusetts vs UConn	+9.5	49.5	L 42 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)	22.5	43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)	35.5	51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	17.8	40.8%	3.73	0.8	20	346	164	182	4.1	56%	44%	43%	38%	17%	.19
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	38.8	46.3%	4.66	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	40%	14%	.26
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	32:19	19.7	38%	58%	7.3	63.2	0.8	0.8	4.1	1.3	1	25.4
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (78)	40.2	164	4.1	18 (78)	.16 (53)	3.1 (50)	74% (62)	11% (95)	0.96 (68)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.25 (125)	3.51 (131)	87% (131)	8% (113)	0.95 (52)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	44% (109)	38% (110)	15.6	27.3	181.8	6.7	11.7	14 (108)	6 (10)	.23 (81)	1.7 (22)	33% (87)	32% (57)	.34 (69)	6% (80)	2 (98)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	39% (2)	40% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.29 (100)	1.7 (112)	28% (118)	28% (29)	.27 (51)	6% (72)	2.1 (89)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22 Mississippi State: -4.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Mississippi State: -4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 37
Massachusetts 22

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Massachusetts 32
Mississippi State 26

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 33
Massachusetts 27

Total Points: 60

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Mississippi State	45	Massachusetts	20	Mississippi State -19.5	Mississippi State	59.5	Over
2017	11/04	Mississippi State	34	Massachusetts	23	Mississippi State -34	Massachusetts	57.0	Push
2016	09/24	Massachusetts	35	Mississippi State	47	Mississippi State -25	Massachusetts	49.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	1	2 Overs
Massachusetts	0	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#115) UMASS at (#101) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	MSST
Power RatePwr	#115	#101
SP+SP+	#129	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#131
OffenseOff	#114	#108
DefenseDef	#117	#135
Spec TeamsST	#126	#56
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#26

Massachusetts Notes(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	#114	#135
SuccessSuc	#94	#133
ExplosiveExp	#72	#18
PPAPPA	#69	#130
PowerPwr	#69	#130
SP+SP+	#110	#98
Pts POPPO	#89	#113
HavocHav	#95	#134

Massachusetts Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#119	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#108
Run ExplRExp	#68	#13
PPAExp	#53	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Massachusetts Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#48
PPAExp	#81	#134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#57	#136
F7 HavocF7	#95	#133
DB HavocDB	#80	#123

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UMASS Def
Perf GradePerf	#108	#117
SuccessSuc	#109	#116
ExplosiveExp	#6	#41
PPAPPA	#78	#114
PowerPwr	#100	#122
SP+SP+	#82	#129
Pts POPPO	#86	#129
HavocHav	#127	#106

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#106	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#128
Run ExplRExp	#28	#52
PPAExp	#92	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#131
TackleTak	-	#14

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#112
PPAExp	#76	#100
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#86
F7 HavocF7	#122	#113
DB HavocDB	#116	#72

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Mississippi State -19.5 (59.5)
Mississippi State won vs Massachusetts this year (45-20)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Massachusetts last year (45-20)

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8
AJ Hairston	40	73	55%	480	5	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen John	111	583	5	5.3	68
C.J. Hester (Tr)	119	529	4	4.4	24
Taisun Phommachanh	107	317	3	3.0	33
Brandon Campbell (Tr)	61	233	3	3.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)	51	870	6	17.1	75
Ty Harding	18	303	5	16.8	58
Jacquon Gibson	23	270	1	11.7	39
Sterling Galban (Tr)	25	210	0	8.4	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Gerrell Johnson	74	3	1	2	2
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	0	0	3
Te'Rai Powell	52	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Louce Julien	43	7	4	1	1
Kofi Asare	30	6	3	1	1
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Christian Lebrun	22	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lake Ellis (Tr)	29	3	5
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)	27	2	3

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3