Ole Miss at Mississippi State Game Matchup

Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Thursday, November 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Ole Miss -11 (56.0) (-380) Open: -1.5
Ole Miss 17 - Mississippi State: 7 (SEC)

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (35 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 6th straight game
MISS is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -13 (SP+ MISS -16.5)
Projected Score: MISS: 35 - MSST: 22 (56)
MISS Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 76 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	.27	48%	38.6	49%	3.11	257	45%	240	4.04	.16	44%	14.4	44%	44%	3.72	63.2	1.5	2.3
MSST	.19	46%	25.8	45%	2.96	82	47%	310	4.23	.09	39%	34.1	41%	38%	3.53	60.8	1.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	38.6	34.6	47.5%	4.04	1.5	25	496	257	240	5.4	60%	40%	49%	45%	16%	.27
MSST Defense	13	34.1	34.9	39.2%	3.53	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	41%	38%	18%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	14.4	18.6	43.9%	3.72	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	44%	44%	16%	.16
MSST Offense	13	25.8	30.7	46.2%	4.23	1.5	23	393	82	310	3.6	30%	70%	45%	47%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	26:23	25.2	47%	49%	6.8	63.2	1.5	2.3	5.7	2.5	0	27.3
Mississippi State	13	29:58	22.8	39%	52%	6.3	60.8	1.5	1.9	6.4	2.4	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	60%	49%	47.2	256.5	5.4	33	.27	3.11	74%	10%	1.1
MSST Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.79	59%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	51%	44%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.22	74%	10%	0.86
MSST Offense	13	30%	45%	22.8	82.4	3.6	12	.12	2.96	60%	8%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	40%	45%	18.4	29.7	239.8	8.1	13.1	22	11	.3	1.6	29%	36%	.33	5%	1.9
MSST Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.6	34%	28%	.09	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.24	1.5	29%	30%	.22	6%	1.8
MSST Offense	13	70%	47%	32.8	48.8	310.4	6.4	9.5	36	9	.22	1.2	27%	30%	.31	8%	2

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 11.28 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 764.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 11.28 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.0 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 35
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Mississippi State	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Ole Miss	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Ole Miss	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Mississippi State	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Mississippi State	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31	Mississippi State
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27	Mississippi State
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14	Mississippi State
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14	Mississippi State
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3	Ole Miss
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31	Ole Miss
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28	Mississippi State
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30	Ole Miss

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	11	7	1 Overs
Ole Miss	13	4	10 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	3 - 8	0 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 15	8 - 3	2 - 3	6 - 0

(#18) Ole Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.28 #18
Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21
Talent Rating: 764.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #21
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Team Profile

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Ole Miss Ratings Matchup Mississippi State

Power #18

#84

Off #22

#120

Def #47

#85

Talent #34

#31

SP+ #14

#66

SP+ Off #21

#78

SP+ Def #21

#55

Rematch from Week 13
Ole Miss 11.0 (56.0)
Ole Miss won at Mississippi State this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 44°

Team Information
Injuries: MISS | MSST
Depth Chart: MISS | MSST
Rosters: MISS | MSST

(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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Ole Miss's OC John David Baker

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Caden Davis (Tr)	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	194	1060	14	5.5	86
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Zakhari Franklin (Tr)	56	658	4	11.8	44
JJ Henry	42	485	4	11.5	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Hughes	83	10	4	6	0
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
John Saunders Jr.	46	2	0	0	5
Khari Coleman	45	1	0	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Reginald Hughes	83	10	4	6	0
J.J. Pegues	42	14	4	5	0
Joshua Harris (Tr)	20	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
John Saunders Jr.	46	2	0	0	5
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	220	311	71%	2458	14	7	7.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Simeon Price	44	136	0	3.1	18
Mike Wright (Tr)	17	82	1	4.8	20
Zavion Thomas	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	47	321	0	6.8	33
Justin Robinson	16	244	3	15.3	50
Zavion Thomas	23	218	2	9.5	21
Ryland Goede (Tr)	6	70	1	11.7	25

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Will James	35	2	7
J.P. Purvis	35	0	0
Luke Evans	31	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Caleb Bryant	4	0	0
Ryland Goede (Tr)	1	0	0
Keelan Crimmins	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Will James	35	2	7
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Luke Evans	31	1	3