Ole Miss at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#6)Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Thursday, November 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Ole Miss -11 (56.0) (-380) Open: -1.5
Ole Miss 17 - Mississippi State: 7 (SEC)

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (22 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 6th straight game
MISS is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -13 (SP+ MISS -16.5)
Projected Score: MISS: 34 - MSST: 21 (54)
MISS Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 76 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	35.1	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	22.5	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	21.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	26.6	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	35.1	21.8	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28
MSST Defense	12	26.6	25.1	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	22.5	24.8	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18
MSST Offense	12	21.8	25.3	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 11.28 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 11.28 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.0 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 34
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 29
Ole Miss 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 27
Mississippi State 24

Total Points: 51

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Mississippi State	19	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -7.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Under
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	11	7	1 Overs
Ole Miss	14	5	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#18) MISS at (#84) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#18	#84
SP+SP+	#14	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#76
OffenseOff	#18	#86
DefenseDef	#60	#71
Spec TeamsST	#11	#24
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#32

Ole Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#71
SuccessSuc	#44	#71
ExplosiveExp	#26	#34
PPAPPA	#30	#61
PowerPwr	#22	#85
SP+SP+	#21	#55
Pts POPPO	#13	#115
HavocHav	#60	#80

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#7	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#64
Run ExplRExp	#44	#32
PPAExp	#60	#41
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#45
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#39
TackleTak	-	#34

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#55
PPAExp	#17	#84
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#87	#125
F7 HavocF7	#80	#51
DB HavocDB	#22	#107

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#60
SuccessSuc	#126	#62
ExplosiveExp	#58	#69
PPAPPA	#116	#68
PowerPwr	#120	#47
SP+SP+	#78	#21
Pts POPPO	#96	#55
HavocHav	#76	#33

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#62	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#74
Run ExplRExp	#55	#58
PPAExp	#113	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#105
TackleTak	-	#38

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#120	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#79
PPAExp	#115	#59
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#49	#40
F7 HavocF7	#81	#30
DB HavocDB	#65	#43

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 44°

Rematch from Week 13
Ole Miss 11.0 (56.0)
Ole Miss won at Mississippi State this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3