Mississippi State at Texas A&M - 2023 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies(#10)

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Texas A&M -16.5 (40.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas A&M 51 - Mississippi State: 10 (SEC)

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (15 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -19.5 (SP+ TA&M -16)
Projected Score: MSST: 13 - TA&M: 32 (45)
TA&M Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
MSST Travel: 484 miles

Aggies (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Elijah Robinson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (38 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 3.4 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
TA&M Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Texas A&M's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas A&M vs New Mexico	-37.5	48.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas A&M at Miami	-3.0	50.5	L 33 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/16	Texas A&M vs UL Monroe	-36.5	53.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas A&M vs Auburn	-9.5	51.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	-6.5	53.5	W 34 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas A&M vs Alabama	+2.5	45.0	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/14	Texas A&M at Tennessee	+3.0	54.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas A&M vs South Carolina	-17.0	51.5	W 30 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas A&M at Ole Miss	+3.0	52.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas A&M vs Mississippi State	-16.5	40.5	W 51 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas A&M vs Abilene Christian	-40.5	54.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	Texas A&M at LSU	+10.5	67.5	L 30 - 42	O	N
Wed 12/27	Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State	+4.0	56.0	L 23 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	21.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	26.6	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1
TA&M	#42 (.24)	43% (54)	33.3	44% (58)	3.02 (85)	136	43% (58)	271	4.15 (44)	#21 (.1)	37% (20)	22.1	34% (7)	40% (46)	2.76 (6)	45.5	1.1	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
TA&M	#54 (.21)	45% (41)		46% (38)	3.29 (27)	185	43% (58)	188	3.63 (93)	#67 (.16)	38% (23)		40% (38)	37% (22)	3.03 (9)	60.7	1	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	21.8	15	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09
TA&M Defense	13	22.1	12.3	37%	2.76	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	34%	40%	22%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	26.6	29.5	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17
TA&M Offense	13	33.3	37.9	43.2%	4.15	1.1	22	407	136	271	3.9	48%	51%	44%	43%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9
Texas A&M	13	31:24	22.1	43%	60%	5.9	45.5	1.1	1	7.4	3.2	2	35.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
TA&M Defense	13	47% (35)	34% (7)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (9)	2.46 (6)	61% (13)	15% (4)	0.99 (67)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)
TA&M Offense	13	48% (84)	44% (58)	35.1	136.2	3.9	23 (46)	.14 (76)	3.02 (85)	78% (33)	9% (50)	0.94 (97)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
TA&M Defense	13	52% (99)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (77)	1.7 (98)	38% (3)	26% (22)	.18 (11)	7% (33)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)
TA&M Offense	13	51% (48)	43% (58)	21.1	32.7	270.8	8.3	12.9	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (41)	1.7 (23)	31% (60)	33% (46)	.46 (26)	5% (31)	2.3 (17)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49 Texas A&M: 17.675

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4 Texas A&M: 15.4

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 17.675 #13
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 16.69 #63
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 0.57 #9
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75 #4
Texas A&M's 2023 Expected Record: 9.60 - 3.40
Texas A&M's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #20
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.5

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 32
Mississippi State 13

Total Points: 45

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.3

Texas A&M's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Mississippi State	24	Texas A&M	34	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -21	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2023	11/11	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	10	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -16.5	Texas A&M	40.5	Over
2022	10/01	Mississippi State	42	Texas A&M	24	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -4	Mississippi State	45.0	Over
2021	10/02	Texas A&M	22	Mississippi State	26	Mississippi State	Texas A&M -7	Mississippi State	45.5	Over
2020	10/17	Mississippi State	14	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -4.5	Texas A&M	56.0	Under
2019	10/26	Texas A&M	49	Mississippi State	30	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -10.5	Texas A&M	50.0	Over
2018	10/27	Mississippi State	28	Texas A&M	13	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -1.5	Mississippi State	42.5	Under
2017	10/28	Texas A&M	14	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -3.5	Mississippi State	55.5	Under
2016	11/05	Mississippi State	35	Texas A&M	28	Mississippi State	Texas A&M -13	Mississippi State	61.0	Over
2015	10/03	Texas A&M	30	Mississippi State	17	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -6	Texas A&M	62.5	Under
2014	10/04	Mississippi State	48	Texas A&M	31	Mississippi State	Texas A&M -1	Mississippi State	0
2013	11/09	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	41	Texas A&M	Texas A&M -19	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/03	Mississippi State	13	Texas A&M	38	Texas A&M
2000	12/30	Mississippi State	43	Texas A&M	41	Mississippi State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas A&M	7	4	6 Overs
Mississippi State	7	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	8 - 4	5 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 3	2 - 5

(#84) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State has lost 2 straight
Mississippi State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (1 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State offense is really bad (#33)
Mississippi State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#57)
Mississippi State run game is really bad (#18)
Mississippi State pass game is really bad (#62)
Mississippi State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Mississippi State has a bad red zone defense (#65)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	TA&M	MSST
OverallOver	#14	#62
OffenseOff	#29	#75
DefenseDef	#17	#57
Special TeamsST	#27	#24
PassingPass	#15	#62
RushingRush	#66	#44
Run BlockRBLK	#35	#56
Pass BlockPBLK	#82	#42
Route RunningWR Rt	#16	#84
TacklingTkl	#84	#31
Run DefenseR Def	#14	#66
Pass Rush DefPRush	#22	#92
Coverage DefCov	#39	#41

Rematch from Week 11
Texas A&M -16.5 (40.5)
Texas A&M won vs Mississippi State this year (51-10)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State last year (34-24)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2023 (51-10)
Mississippi State beat Texas A&M in 2022 (42-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | TA&M
Depth Chart: MSST | TA&M
Rosters: MSST | TA&M

(#13) Texas A&M Info
Power Rating: 17.675 #13
Offense Rating: 16.69 #63
Defense Rating: 0.57 #9
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #15
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75 #4
Expected Record: 9.60 - 3.40

Texas A&M has lost 1 straight
Texas A&M has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Texas A&M Highlights
Texas A&M does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#70)

Texas A&M Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas A&M has a really good defense (#36)
Texas A&M defense is really good in red zone (#116)
Texas A&M has a good run defense (#25)
Texas A&M Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#48)
Texas A&M Defensive Line is very good (#28)
Texas A&M Front 7 is disruptive (#38)
Texas A&M has a great TO Margin (#28)

Texas A&M Deficiencies
Texas A&M gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#124)

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3

Texas A&M's OC Bobby Petrino

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Johnson	118	190	62%	1452	9	5	7.6
Conner Weigman	82	119	69%	979	8	2	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amari Daniels	105	532	6	5.1	79
Le'Veon Moss	96	484	5	5.0	36
Rueben Owens	101	385	3	3.8	28
Jaylen Henderson (Tr)	41	104	2	2.5	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ainias Smith	53	795	2	15.0	42
Jahdae Walker (Tr)	35	590	2	16.9	40
Evan Stewart	38	514	4	13.5	44
Noah Thomas	29	359	5	12.4	34

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

Texas A&M's DC D. J. Durkin

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Edgerrin Cooper	83	19	10	9	2
Taurean York	74	9	3	5	0
Demani Richardson	59	3	1	4	3
Bryce Anderson	56	8	3	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Edgerrin Cooper	83	19	10	9	2
Shemar Turner	31	9	5	3	0
Fadil Diggs	36	11	4	6	2
Walter Nolen	36	8	4	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deuce Harmon	18	1	0	0	7
Josh DeBerry (Tr)	39	5	1	1	7
Tyreek Chappell	21	1	0	0	6