Alabama at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#17)Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -16.5 (45.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Alabama 40 - Mississippi State: 17 (SEC)

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (32 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST is playing their 5th straight game
ALA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -19.5 (SP+ ALA -24)
Projected Score: ALA: 33 - MSST: 13 (46)
ALA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
ALA Travel: 74 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	34	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	21.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	26.6	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	14	34	31.8	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29
MSST Defense	12	26.6	25.1	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	14	19	17	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11
MSST Offense	12	21.8	25.3	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 33
Mississippi State 13

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 22
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 29
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 50

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Mississippi State	17	Alabama	40	Alabama -16.5	Alabama	45.0	Over
2022	10/22	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	6	Alabama -21.5	Alabama	61.5	Under
2021	10/16	Mississippi State	9	Alabama	49	Alabama -17.5	Alabama	59.5	Under
2020	10/31	Alabama	41	Mississippi State	0	Alabama -32.0	Alabama	0
2019	11/16	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	38	Alabama -19	Alabama	61.0	Under
2018	11/10	Alabama	24	Mississippi State	0	Alabama -21.5	Alabama	50.0	Under
2017	11/11	Mississippi State	24	Alabama	31	Alabama -14.5	Mississippi State	50.0	Over
2016	11/12	Alabama	51	Mississippi State	3	Alabama -28.5	Alabama	52.5	Over
2015	11/14	Mississippi State	6	Alabama	31	Alabama -7	Alabama	51.5	Under
2014	11/15	Alabama	25	Mississippi State	20	Alabama -6.5	Mississippi State	0
2013	11/16	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	20	Alabama -24.5	Mississippi State	0
2012	10/27	Alabama	38	Mississippi State	7
2011	11/12	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	24
2010	11/13	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	10
2009	11/14	Mississippi State	3	Alabama	31
2008	11/15	Alabama	32	Mississippi State	7
2007	11/10	Mississippi State	17	Alabama	12
2006	11/04	Alabama	16	Mississippi State	24
2005	11/05	Mississippi State	0	Alabama	17
2004	11/06	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	14
2003	11/08	Mississippi State	0	Alabama	38
2002	11/09	Alabama	28	Mississippi State	14
2001	11/10	Alabama	24	Mississippi State	17
2000	11/10	Mississippi State	29	Alabama	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	3	3 Overs
Alabama	21	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 13	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4

(#9) ALA at (#84) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALA	MSST
Power RatePwr	#9	#84
SP+SP+	#7	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#76
OffenseOff	#10	#86
DefenseDef	#6	#71
Spec TeamsST	#3	#24
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#1	#32

Alabama Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#71
SuccessSuc	#39	#71
ExplosiveExp	#23	#34
PPAPPA	#20	#61
PowerPwr	#25	#85
SP+SP+	#11	#55
Pts POPPO	#17	#115
HavocHav	#51	#80

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#15	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#64
Run ExplRExp	#79	#32
PPAExp	#39	#41
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#45
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#39
TackleTak	-	#34

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#55
PPAExp	#20	#84
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#43	#125
F7 HavocF7	#91	#51
DB HavocDB	#6	#107

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
Perf GradePerf	#86	#6
SuccessSuc	#126	#12
ExplosiveExp	#58	#87
PPAPPA	#116	#26
PowerPwr	#120	#21
SP+SP+	#78	#9
Pts POPPO	#96	#73
HavocHav	#76	#16

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#62	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#28
Run ExplRExp	#55	#114
PPAExp	#113	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#108
TackleTak	-	#7

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#120	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#42
PPAExp	#115	#9
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#49	#13
F7 HavocF7	#81	#21
DB HavocDB	#65	#37

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71°

Rematch from Week 5
Alabama 16.5 (45.0)
Alabama won at Mississippi State this year (40-17)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2023 (40-17)
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2022 (30-6)

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3