Alabama at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Alabama logo   Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Mississippi State logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -16.5 (45.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Alabama 40 - Mississippi State: 17  (SEC)

 
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
ALA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -19.5  (SP+ ALA -24)
Projected Score: ALA: 35 - MSST: 16 (51)
ALA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
ALA Travel: 74 miles
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA.3347%29.546%2.9519648%2824.78.0639%19.242%36%3.4968.71.21.2
MSST.1946%30.445%2.968247%3104.23.0939%30.241%38%3.5360.81.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense1329.526.346.9%4.781.2244771962825.644%56%46%48%13%.33
MSST Defense1330.227.939.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense1319.223.738.9%3.491.2 - - - - - 47%53%42%36%18%.06
MSST Offense1330.433.946.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1329:5423.846%60%7.968.71.21.26.52.9331.2
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1344%46%35.2195.75.626.232.9573%9%1.09
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1347%42% - - - - .092.8568%11%0.94
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1356%48%21.533.7281.58.413.1378.41.730%40%.684%2.4
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 7.061.433%26%.147%1.9
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78  #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42  #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95  #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1015.43  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90%  #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7  #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78   Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555  #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46  #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96  #85
2023 Talent Rating: 746.29  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 21  #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4  #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 35
Mississippi State 16

Projected Total Points: 51
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Mississippi State17Alabama40Alabama -16.5Alabama45.0Over
202210/22Alabama30Mississippi State6Alabama -21.5Alabama61.5Under
202110/16Mississippi State9Alabama49Alabama -17.5Alabama59.5Under
202010/31Alabama41Mississippi State0Alabama -32.0Alabama0
201911/16Mississippi State7Alabama38Alabama -19Alabama61.0Under
201811/10Alabama24Mississippi State0Alabama -21.5Alabama50.0Under
201711/11Mississippi State24Alabama31Alabama -14.5Mississippi State50.0Over
201611/12Alabama51Mississippi State3Alabama -28.5Alabama52.5Over
201511/14Mississippi State6Alabama31Alabama -7Alabama51.5Under
201411/15Alabama25Mississippi State20Alabama -6.5Mississippi State0
201311/16Mississippi State7Alabama20Alabama -24.5Mississippi State0
201210/27Alabama38Mississippi State7
201111/12Mississippi State7Alabama24
201011/13Alabama30Mississippi State10
200911/14Mississippi State3Alabama31
200811/15Alabama32Mississippi State7
200711/10Mississippi State17Alabama12
200611/04Alabama16Mississippi State24
200511/05Mississippi State0Alabama17
200411/06Alabama30Mississippi State14
200311/08Mississippi State0Alabama38
200211/09Alabama28Mississippi State14
200111/10Alabama24Mississippi State17
200011/10Mississippi State29Alabama7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State333 Overs
Alabama2185 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 116 - 54 - 12 - 4
Road Teams11 - 135 - 64 - 21 - 4

(#9) ALA at (#84) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatALAMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #9 #84
SP+SP+ #7 #66
Perf GradeGrade #3 #76
OffenseOff #10 #86
DefenseDef #6 #71
Spec TeamsST #3 #24
TalentTal #1 #28
Blue ChipsBC% #1 #32
Alabama on Offense
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #10 #71
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #25 #85
SP+SP+ #11 #55
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Alabama Run Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #15 #76
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #3 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Alabama Pass Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #32 #51
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #125
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCatMSST OffALA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #86 #6
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #120 #21
SP+SP+ #78 #9
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffALA Def
Run GameRun #62 #10
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #7
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCatMSST OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #76 #2
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #49 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Alabama 16.5 (45.0)
Alabama won at Mississippi State this year (40-17)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2023 (40-17)

  
ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers14223760%16261246.9
Mike Wright (Tr)488557%453335.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks12157344.752
Seth Davis5935616.046
Mike Wright (Tr)7132434.653
Jeffery Pittman5426815.059
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)50658413.265
Zavion Thomas40503112.635
Justin Robinson21257012.230
Jo'quavious Marks2316727.332

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Decamerion Richardson791107
Corey Ellington664202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Jaden Crumedy354322
Corey Ellington664202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Decamerion Richardson791107
Deonte Anderson383114
Shawn Preston Jr.595013