Mississippi State at Ole Miss - 2026 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels

Friday, November 27th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS 2nd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 8th straight game
MSST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -16.5 (SP+ MISS -20)
Projected Score: MSST: 21 - MISS: 37 (58)
MISS Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
MSST Travel: 76 miles

Rebels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-27
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+0
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+5.5
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+8.5
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+9
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+13
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+11
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+17.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+7.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+4
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-30
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Ole Miss vs Louisville	-12.5
Sat 9/12	Ole Miss vs Charlotte	-45.5
Sat 9/19	Ole Miss vs LSU	-6
Sat 9/26	Ole Miss at Florida	-8.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	-1.5
Sat 10/17	Ole Miss vs Missouri	-6
Sat 10/24	Ole Miss at Texas	+3.5
Sat 10/31	Ole Miss vs Auburn	-10
Sat 11/7	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+3.5
Sat 11/14	Ole Miss at Oklahoma	+2
Sat 11/21	Ole Miss vs Wofford	-44
Fri 11/27	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-16.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4
MISS	#14 (.3)	48% (16)	36.9	45% (52)	2.79 (100)	177	51% (7)	313	4.44 (19)	#57 (.13)	40% (51)	21.1	43% (77)	38% (29)	3.1 (23)	52.4	0.9	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14
MISS Defense	15	21.1	15.6	40%	3.1	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	43%	38%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22
MISS Offense	15	36.9	39	47.8%	4.44	0.9	25	490	177	313	4.6	50%	49%	45%	51%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29
Ole Miss	15	28:45	25.4	43%	68%	5.5	52.4	0.9	1	5.5	2.2	0	28.1

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)
MISS Defense	15	50% (68)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.19 (116)	3.11 (105)	70% (59)	10% (57)	1.08 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)
MISS Offense	15	50% (64)	45% (52)	38.1	176.7	4.6	39 (11)	.15 (49)	2.79 (100)	78% (25)	7% (21)	0.96 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)
MISS Defense	15	48% (68)	38% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.13 (20)	1.6 (65)	33% (41)	30% (79)	.29 (67)	7% (32)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)
MISS Offense	15	49% (65)	51% (7)	22.7	34.9	313.3	9	13.8	26 (50)	8 (60)	.46 (8)	1.6 (60)	28% (19)	38% (8)	.53 (7)	6% (72)	2.2 (23)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.83 #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12 #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29 #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.83 Ole Miss: 23.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1 Ole Miss: 24.0

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 23.06 #17
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 20.26 #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.14 #19
2026 Talent Rating: 936.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Ole Miss's 2026 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0 #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4 #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 37
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 58

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Mississippi State	19	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -7.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Under
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	14	5	1 Overs
Mississippi State	11	7	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#29) MSST at (#17) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#29	#17
SP+SP+	#58	#7
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#16	#23
Blue ChipsBC%	#27	#18

Mississippi State Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#51
ExplosiveExp	#45	#96
PPAPPA	#90	#57
PowerPwr	#22	#19
SP+SP+	#39	#20
Pts POPPO	#22	#23
HavocHav	#117	#46

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#77
Run ExplRExp	#68	#120
PPAExp	#71	#116
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#83
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#65
PPAExp	#93	#20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#57
DB HavocDB	#81	#32

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#16	#102
ExplosiveExp	#42	#71
PPAPPA	#14	#110
PowerPwr	#16	#48
SP+SP+	#3	#84
Pts POPPO	#19	#69
HavocHav	#34	#110

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#124
Run ExplRExp	#66	#31
PPAExp	#49	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#124
PPAExp	#8	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#21	#121
DB HavocDB	#72	#69

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (38-19)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2024 (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Amaree Williams (Tr)	10	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trinidad Chambliss	294	445	66%	3937	22	3	8.8
Walker Howard (Tr)	18	41	44%	155	0	3	3.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Dye (Tr)	270	1660	24	6.1	92
Kewan Lacy	306	1567	24	5.1	73
Trinidad Chambliss	133	527	8	4.0	41
Makhi Frazier (Tr)	116	520	2	4.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deuce Alexander	44	684	2	15.5	88
Johntay Cook II	47	559	2	11.9	59
Darrell Gill Jr. (Tr)	32	506	5	15.8	43
Caleb Odom	19	197	2	10.4	40

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Patrick Toney (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas (Tr)	99	7	1	1	3
Luke Ferrelli (Tr)	91	5	1	1	1
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5
Kamarion Franklin	69	9	5	14	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamarion Franklin	69	9	5	14	3
William Echoles	68	12	5	6	5
Jonathan Maldonado (Tr)	38	9	5	1	4
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antonio Kite	33	0	0	0	5
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5
William Echoles	68	12	5	6	5