Arkansas at Mississippi State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:45 PM EDT)
Arkansas -7.5 (55.0) (-280) Open: -7.0 | 58.0
Arkansas 58 - Mississippi State: 25 (SEC)

Razorbacks (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (34 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas -15.5 (SP+ ARK -15)
Projected Score: ARK: 36 - MSST: 20 (56)
ARK Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 355 miles

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-50.5	60.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arkansas at Oklahoma State	+10.5	60.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Arkansas vs UAB	-23.5	60.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/21	Arkansas at Auburn	+2.5	53.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	50.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arkansas vs Tennessee	+14.0	57.5	W 19 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Arkansas vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arkansas at Mississippi State	-7.5	55.0	W 58 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Arkansas vs Ole Miss	+8.0	54.0	L 31 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Arkansas vs Texas	+13.0	57.5	L 10 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech	-23.5	48.5	W 35 - 14	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arkansas at Missouri	+3.5	51.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/27	Arkansas vs Texas Tech	+3.5	52.5	W 39 - 26	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)	30.9	52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)	25	39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	13	30.9	33.5	48.2%	3.95	1.7	23	416	168	248	4.9	51%	48%	52%	44%	19%	.25
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	13	25	26.5	41.5%	3.31	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	44%	14%	.13
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	13	28:07	22.6	43%	59%	6.4	56.3	1.7	1	4.4	1.9	0	27.3
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	13	51% (64)	52% (5)	34.4	167.9	4.9	32 (14)	.21 (29)	3.23 (38)	82% (13)	12% (109)	0.97 (67)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	13	50% (64)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.84 (42)	79% (104)	8% (123)	0.82 (8)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	13	48% (71)	44% (41)	18.8	30.2	248.4	8.2	13.2	14 (108)	9 (48)	.3 (46)	1.6 (42)	32% (72)	37% (17)	.43 (25)	7% (106)	2.2 (25)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	13	50% (70)	44% (100)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.28 (92)	1.5 (43)	33% (48)	27% (23)	.2 (25)	7% (45)	1.9 (37)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 10.16 #30
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.60 #22
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.73 #60
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Arkansas's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Arkansas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #24
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 10.16 Mississippi State: -4.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 11.0 Mississippi State: -4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.5

Arkansas's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas 36
Mississippi State 20

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas 30
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas 34
Mississippi State 27

Total Points: 61

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Arkansas	35	Mississippi State	38	Arkansas -5.5	Mississippi State	66.5	Over
2024	10/26	Mississippi State	25	Arkansas	58	Arkansas -7.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2023	10/21	Arkansas	3	Mississippi State	7	Arkansas -6.5	Mississippi State	46.5	Under
2022	10/08	Mississippi State	40	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State -8	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2021	11/06	Arkansas	31	Mississippi State	28	Arkansas -4	Mississippi State	54.0	Over
2020	10/03	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State -16.5	Arkansas	68.0	Under
2019	11/02	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	54	Mississippi State -7	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2018	11/17	Mississippi State	52	Arkansas	6	Mississippi State -22.5	Mississippi State	49.0	Over
2017	11/18	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	56.0	Under
2016	11/19	Mississippi State	42	Arkansas	58	Mississippi State -1	Arkansas	57.5	Over
2015	11/21	Arkansas	50	Mississippi State	51	Arkansas -3	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2014	11/01	Mississippi State	17	Arkansas	10	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State	24	Mississippi State -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/17	Mississippi State	45	Arkansas	14
2011	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	17
2010	11/20	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	38
2009	11/21	Arkansas	42	Mississippi State	21
2008	11/22	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	28
2007	11/17	Arkansas	45	Mississippi State	31
2006	11/18	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	28
2005	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	10
2004	11/20	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas	24
2003	11/22	Arkansas	52	Mississippi State	6
2001	11/17	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	21
2000	11/17	Mississippi State	10	Arkansas	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	11	8	8 Overs
Arkansas	14	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	3 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	10 - 3	3 - 1	7 - 2

(#30) ARK at (#101) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#101
SP+SP+	#24	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#131
OffenseOff	#29	#108
DefenseDef	#71	#135
Spec TeamsST	#75	#56
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#26

Arkansas Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#135
SuccessSuc	#13	#133
ExplosiveExp	#80	#18
PPAPPA	#27	#130
PowerPwr	#22	#130
SP+SP+	#40	#98
Pts POPPO	#64	#113
HavocHav	#114	#134

Arkansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#15	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#5	#108
Run ExplRExp	#67	#13
PPAExp	#29	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#62	-
OL YdsOLY	#38	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Arkansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#48
PPAExp	#46	#134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#81	#136
F7 HavocF7	#109	#133
DB HavocDB	#106	#123

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#71
SuccessSuc	#109	#66
ExplosiveExp	#6	#29
PPAPPA	#78	#45
PowerPwr	#100	#60
SP+SP+	#82	#33
Pts POPPO	#86	#22
HavocHav	#127	#101

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#106	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#32
Run ExplRExp	#28	#8
PPAExp	#92	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#42
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#112
TackleTak	-	#50

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#100
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#43
PPAExp	#76	#92
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#74
F7 HavocF7	#122	#123
DB HavocDB	#116	#45

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARK 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82°

Rematch from Week 9
Arkansas 7.5 (55.0)
Arkansas won at Mississippi State this year (58-25)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green (Tr)	230	381	60%	3153	15	9	8.3
Malachi Singleton	21	28	75%	358	1	0	12.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quinden Jackson (Tr)	149	790	15	5.3	46
Taylen Green (Tr)	156	602	8	3.9	41
Braylen Russell	67	354	3	5.3	75
Rashod Dubinion	56	335	2	6.0	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong	78	1140	1	14.6	43
Isaac Teslaa	28	545	3	19.5	75
Isaiah Sategna	37	490	1	13.2	58
Luke Hasz	26	324	4	12.5	43

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr. (Tr)	99	10	2	3	1
Doneiko Slaughter (Tr)	78	3	1	0	6
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	70	3	2	3	1
TJ Metcalf	56	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	49	10	7	9	3
Brad Spence	55	6	5	1	1
Eric Gregory	43	5	3	5	1
Xavian Sorey Jr. (Tr)	99	10	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Metcalf	56	1	0	7
Marquise Robinson (Tr)	35	0	0	7
Doneiko Slaughter (Tr)	78	3	1	6

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Barnes (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3