Mississippi State at Tennessee Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tennessee VolunteersTennessee logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Tennessee -26.5 (61.5) (-2800)  Open: -24.0 | 61.0
Tennessee 33 - Mississippi State: 14  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
TENN 4th straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Tennessee -28.5   (SP+ TENN -26)
Projected Score: MSST: 15 - TENN: 43 (56)
TENN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 326 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (43 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30UN
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39ON
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Tennessee vs Chattanooga-38.556.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 Tennessee vs NC State-10.060.5W 51 - 10OY
Sat 9/14 Tennessee vs Kent State-49.561.5W 71 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Tennessee at Oklahoma-6.057.0W 25 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Tennessee at Arkansas-14.057.5L 14 - 19UN
Sat 10/12 Tennessee vs Florida-13.554.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 10/19 Tennessee vs Alabama+3.557.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Tennessee vs Kentucky-17.545.5W 28 - 18ON
Sat 11/9 Tennessee vs Mississippi State-26.561.5W 33 - 14UN
Sat 11/16 Tennessee at Georgia+8.547.0L 17 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 Tennessee vs UTEP-41.554.0W 56 - 0OY
Sat 11/30 Tennessee at Vanderbilt-9.545.5W 36 - 23OY
Sat 12/21 Tennessee at Ohio State+7.547.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)25.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)34.142% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
TENN#36 (.27)46% (24)35.746% (39)3.31 (30)18747% (25)2323.56 (94)#54 (.16)39% (35)16.137% (19)41% (65)3.41 (34)65.60.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81935.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09
TENN Defense1316.19.938.9%3.411.2 - - - - - 48%52%37%41%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13342.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
TENN Offense1335.743.446.3%3.560.9204191872325.651%49%46%47%13%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Tennessee1322:3219.943%31%7.565.60.91.27.22.8430.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)
TENN Defense1348% (41)37% (19) - - - - .05 (21)2.71 (15)65% (24)13% (11)1.03 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
TENN Offense1351% (60)46% (39)33.5186.95.620 (61).22 (28)3.31 (30)72% (80)7% (16)1.05 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)
TENN Defense1352% (96)41% (65) - - - - - - 10 (67).29 (85)1.6 (85)35% (27)31% (82).36 (93)5% (100)2 (41)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
TENN Offense1349% (69)47% (25)19.330.1231.77.71221 (65)5 (6).35 (39)1.5 (110)30% (39)32% (64).38 (54)6% (68)2.1 (63)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34   Tennessee: 21.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1   Tennessee: 22.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 21.065 #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 43
Mississippi State 15

Projected Total Points: 56
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.4
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Tennessee33Mississippi State14TennesseeTennessee -26.5Mississippi State61.5Under
201910/12Tennessee20Mississippi State10TennesseeMississippi State -5Tennessee52.5Under
201210/13Mississippi State41Tennessee31Mississippi State
200810/18Tennessee34Mississippi State3Tennessee
200710/13Mississippi State21Tennessee33Tennessee
200311/15Tennessee59Mississippi State21Tennessee
200211/16Mississippi State17Tennessee35Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee610 Overs
Mississippi State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 51 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#101) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Tennessee
Power #101
#14
Off #100
#61
Def #130
#16
Talent #43
#12
SP+ #88
#9
SP+ Off #82
#23
SP+ Def #98
#6

Rematch from Week 11
Tennessee -26.5 (61.5)
Tennessee won vs Mississippi State this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Mississippi State last year (33-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | TENN
Depth Chart: MSST | TENN
Rosters: MSST | TENN
(#14) Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 21.065 #14
Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position



  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.14025655%18861177.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)7410869%974819.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth (Tr)15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Keyvone Lee2914014.818
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)25391215.649
Mario Craver17368321.672

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakari Tillman304412
Branden Jennings565242
Ty Cooper292110
Kalvin Dinkins21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brice Pollock481007
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123

Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava21333464%26161957.8
Gaston Moore162759%201227.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Nico Iamaleava10936433.331
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Cameron Seldon2311815.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Squirrel White34381211.245
Chris Brazzell II (Tr)29333211.553
Miles Kitselman (Tr)22301413.731
Holden Staes (Tr)1513118.720

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
Joshua Josephs399283
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey254250
Jayson Jenkins94200
Tyre West165220
Jaxson Moi (Tr)165201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy (Tr)441007
Arion Carter687036
Jalen Mcmurray (Tr)140004