Data as of: Jan 19, 2026 7:30pm
This page is home/away neutral. For each stat, we identify which team “won the battle” (home or away),
then show how often that team won and covered.
Totals note: In the Totals section, “above/below average” refers to the game environment metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.) — not whether the betting total itself was high or low.
Totals note: In the Totals section, “above/below average” refers to the game environment metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.) — not whether the betting total itself was high or low.
🏈 What Wins Games
When a team won this “battle,” how often did that team win the game?
| Factor | Battle Winner Win % | Games |
|---|---|---|
|
Momentum Control (CSS)
Who strung together more consecutive scoring runs
|
84.7% | 2,493 |
|
Game Control
Who controlled win probability from start to finish
|
84.6% | 3,804 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Who created more value per play overall
|
80.9% | 3,809 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Who created more value per pass
|
76.4% | 3,803 |
|
Defensive Disruption
Who created more chaos on defense
|
76.2% | 3,775 |
|
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Who stayed “on schedule” more often
|
74.4% | 3,785 |
|
Finishing Drives
Who turned trips past the 40 into points
|
71.2% | 3,729 |
|
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Who stayed on schedule before passing downs
|
67.7% | 3,790 |
|
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Who executed better in obvious passing situations
|
67.1% | 3,746 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Who created more value per run
|
62.4% | 3,803 |
|
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Who got more push up front
|
59.0% | 3,609 |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences differential. A CSS = score, force stop, score again. Win rate when winning this battle: 85.6%.
84.7%
Battle winner win rate
2,493
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
73.1%
Battle winner cover rate
2,450
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Game Control
Game Control differential — based on win probability across all plays. Measures sustained dominance, not just final score.
84.6%
Battle winner win rate
3,804
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
66.4%
Battle winner cover rate
3,719
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Overall PPA differential (similar to EPA). Adjusted for situation and field position.
80.9%
Battle winner win rate
3,809
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
66.4%
Battle winner cover rate
3,723
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Passing PPA differential. Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.
76.4%
Battle winner win rate
3,803
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
66.2%
Battle winner cover rate
3,717
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Defensive Disruption
Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).
76.2%
Battle winner win rate
3,775
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
63.9%
Battle winner cover rate
3,689
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Success Rate differential. Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.
74.4%
Battle winner win rate
3,785
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
59.9%
Battle winner cover rate
3,699
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Finishing Drives
Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.
71.2%
Battle winner win rate
3,729
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
65.2%
Battle winner cover rate
3,645
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Success Rate differential on standard downs.
67.7%
Battle winner win rate
3,790
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
56.4%
Battle winner cover rate
3,704
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).
67.1%
Battle winner win rate
3,746
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
59.3%
Battle winner cover rate
3,661
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Rushing PPA differential.
62.4%
Battle winner win rate
3,803
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
55.5%
Battle winner cover rate
3,719
ATS games used
Requires spread line
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.
59.0%
Battle winner win rate
3,609
Games used
Seasons 2021–2025, min plays 40
51.6%
Battle winner cover rate
3,532
ATS games used
Requires spread line
💰 What Beats the Spread
When a team won this “battle,” how often did that team cover?
Splits shown by the home line (favorites vs underdogs) for context.
| Factor | Battle Winner Cover % | Home Fav | Home Dog | Home Dog 7+ | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Momentum Control (CSS)
Who strung together more consecutive scoring runs
|
73.1% | 70.4% | 77.4% | 73.6% | 2,450 |
|
Game Control
Who controlled win probability from start to finish
|
66.4% | 63.7% | 71.3% | 61.5% | 3,719 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Who created more value per play overall
|
66.4% | 64.6% | 69.5% | 64.0% | 3,723 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Who created more value per pass
|
66.2% | 65.3% | 67.9% | 64.4% | 3,717 |
|
Finishing Drives
Who turned trips past the 40 into points
|
65.2% | 64.3% | 66.7% | 65.6% | 3,645 |
|
Defensive Disruption
Who created more chaos on defense
|
63.9% | 61.7% | 68.0% | 62.6% | 3,689 |
|
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Who stayed “on schedule” more often
|
59.9% | 57.9% | 63.3% | 58.7% | 3,699 |
|
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Who executed better in obvious passing situations
|
59.3% | 59.1% | 59.4% | 59.6% | 3,661 |
|
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Who stayed on schedule before passing downs
|
56.4% | 54.1% | 60.4% | 56.8% | 3,704 |
|
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Who created more value per run
|
55.5% | 54.3% | 57.7% | 58.0% | 3,719 |
|
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Who got more push up front
|
51.6% | 51.3% | 52.3% | 52.8% | 3,532 |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences differential. A CSS = score, force stop, score again. Win rate when winning this battle: 85.6%.
73.1%
Cover rate (all)
70.4%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
77.4%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
73.6%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 2,450 (all) /
1,521 (home fav) /
926 (home dog) /
469 (home dog 7+)
Game Control
Game Control differential — based on win probability across all plays. Measures sustained dominance, not just final score.
66.4%
Cover rate (all)
63.7%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
71.3%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
61.5%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,719 (all) /
2,389 (home fav) /
1,327 (home dog) /
641 (home dog 7+)
Big-Play Impact (Overall)
Overall PPA differential (similar to EPA). Adjusted for situation and field position.
66.4%
Cover rate (all)
64.6%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
69.5%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
64.0%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,723 (all) /
2,391 (home fav) /
1,329 (home dog) /
641 (home dog 7+)
Big-Play Impact (Passing)
Passing PPA differential. Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.
66.2%
Cover rate (all)
65.3%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
67.9%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
64.4%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,717 (all) /
2,386 (home fav) /
1,328 (home dog) /
641 (home dog 7+)
Finishing Drives
Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.
65.2%
Cover rate (all)
64.3%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
66.7%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
65.6%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,645 (all) /
2,345 (home fav) /
1,297 (home dog) /
628 (home dog 7+)
Defensive Disruption
Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).
63.9%
Cover rate (all)
61.7%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
68.0%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
62.6%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,689 (all) /
2,368 (home fav) /
1,318 (home dog) /
636 (home dog 7+)
Down-to-Down Efficiency
Success Rate differential. Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.
59.9%
Cover rate (all)
57.9%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
63.3%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
58.7%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,699 (all) /
2,372 (home fav) /
1,324 (home dog) /
639 (home dog 7+)
Efficiency on Passing Downs
Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).
59.3%
Cover rate (all)
59.1%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
59.4%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
59.6%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,661 (all) /
2,347 (home fav) /
1,311 (home dog) /
633 (home dog 7+)
Efficiency on Standard Downs
Success Rate differential on standard downs.
56.4%
Cover rate (all)
54.1%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
60.4%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
56.8%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,704 (all) /
2,377 (home fav) /
1,324 (home dog) /
639 (home dog 7+)
Big-Play Impact (Rushing)
Rushing PPA differential.
55.5%
Cover rate (all)
54.3%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
57.7%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
58.0%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,719 (all) /
2,388 (home fav) /
1,328 (home dog) /
641 (home dog 7+)
Line Yards (Run Blocking)
Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.
51.6%
Cover rate (all)
51.3%
Home fav subset
spread < 0
52.3%
Home dog subset
spread > 0
52.8%
Home dog 7+ subset
spread ≥ 7
Games used: 3,532 (all) /
2,275 (home fav) /
1,254 (home dog) /
606 (home dog 7+)
🎯 What Hits the Total
Totals are a game-level outcome. For each metric below, we split games into two groups:
Above-average metric vs Below-average metric, then show how often those games went Over.
| Game Environment Metric | Over% (Metric > Avg) | Games | Over% (Metric < Avg) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pace (Total Plays)
More plays = more chances to score (home plays + away plays).
Metric average (cutoff): 129
|
50.0% | 2,031 | 44.4% | 1,726 |
|
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA rate)
Adds both teams’ overall PPA (rate). Higher combined play value tends to correlate with Overs.
Metric average (cutoff): 0.347
|
68.2% | 1,845 | 27.4% | 1,912 |
|
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA total impact)
Approximates total game impact: (home PPA × home plays) + (away PPA × away plays).
Metric average (cutoff): 22.5
|
68.9% | 1,817 | 27.3% | 1,940 |
|
Combined Scoring Opportunities
Total number of drives crossing the opponent 40 (both teams). More chances = more points.
Metric average (cutoff): 11.73
|
61.7% | 1,947 | 32.1% | 1,810 |
|
Combined Explosiveness
Adds both teams’ explosiveness. Explosive games are more likely to spike totals.
Metric average (cutoff): 2.558
|
61.3% | 1,800 | 34.7% | 1,957 |
|
Combined Efficiency (Success Rate)
Adds both teams’ success rate. Efficient offenses sustain drives and scoring chances.
Metric average (cutoff): 0.839
|
61.2% | 1,854 | 34.1% | 1,903 |
“Above/Below Average” refers to the metric (pace, combined PPA, etc.), not the betting total number itself.
If you want, we can add a separate “High Total vs Low Total” split later (e.g., totals ≥ 55 vs < 55).
📘 Definitions (Plain English)
Quick glossary for the terms used on this page.
- Game Control: Measures how thoroughly a team controlled win probability from kickoff to final whistle — not just whether they led, but by how much and for how long. Based on play-level WP data. See Game Control leaderboard.
- Momentum Control (CSS): Counts Consecutive Scoring Sequences — when a team scores, forces a stop, then scores again. Win rate when winning this battle: 85.6% (2016–2025, 5,485 games). See Momentum Control leaderboard.
- Big-Play Impact (PPA-based): This is not a simple count of 10+, 15+, or 20+ yard plays. It uses Predicted Points Added (PPA), which measures how much each play changed scoring potential based on down, distance, and field position.
- PPA (Predicted Points Added): Similar to EPA. Measures play value using down, distance, and field position.
- Success Rate: % of plays that stay “on schedule” (50% yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th, or a TD).
- Passing Downs: 2nd & 7+ to go, or 3rd/4th & 5+ to go.
- Standard Downs: All downs that are not passing downs.
- Scoring Opportunities: Drives that cross the opponent’s 40-yard line.
- Points per Opportunity: Points scored per scoring opportunity (drive past the 40).
- Havoc: % of plays with a TFL, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
- Line Yards: Rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage (losses count extra, big runs count less).
- “Won the battle”: The team that had the better value in that stat (home minus away > 0 means home; < 0 means away).
These are descriptive validations (what tended to happen when one team outperformed the other). Turning this into a pregame predictor
requires season-to-date team ratings and opponent adjustment.
Last updated: Mar 28, 2026