Auburn at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Auburn logo Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS

 
Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
AUB is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Auburn -4  (SP+ AUB -7.5)
Projected Score: AUB: 30 - MSST: 26 (56)
AUB Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AUB Travel: 200 miles
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Auburn's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Auburn vs Baylor-13
Sat 9/12 Auburn vs Southern Miss-24.5
Sat 9/19 Auburn vs Florida-6
Sat 9/26 Auburn vs Vanderbilt+1.5
Sat 10/3 Auburn at Tennessee+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Auburn at Georgia+16
Sat 10/24 Auburn vs LSU+2
Sat 10/31 Auburn at Ole Miss+10
Sat 11/7 Auburn vs Arkansas-11.5
Sat 11/14 Auburn at Mississippi State-4
Sat 11/21 Auburn vs Samford-36.5
Sat 11/28 Auburn at Alabama+7.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Mississippi State vs UL Monroe-27
Sat 9/12 Mississippi State at Minnesota+0
Sat 9/19 Mississippi State at South Carolina+5.5
Sat 9/26 Mississippi State vs Missouri+8.5
Sat 10/3 Mississippi State vs Alabama+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Mississippi State at LSU+13
Sat 10/24 Mississippi State vs Oklahoma+11
Sat 10/31 Mississippi State at Texas+17.5
Sat 11/7 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt+7.5
Sat 11/14 Mississippi State vs Auburn+4
Sat 11/21 Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech-30
Fri 11/27 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#72 (.17)43% (56)26.847% (30)3.19 (23)17740% (90)1973.9 (51)#19 (.07)38% (26)20.733% (5)44% (99)3.37 (42)63.70.71.4
MSST#90 (.14)42% (86)30.444% (62)2.81 (95)15839% (102)2414.41 (22)#110 (.22)44% (102)30.248% (124)40% (56)3.68 (69)61.61.21.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Offense1226.827.243.4%3.90.7213741771974.751%48%47%40%17%.17
MSST Defense1330.227.944.2%3.681.4 - - - - - 53%46%48%40%14%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Defense1220.726.638.3%3.371.4 - - - - - 48%51%33%44%17%.07
MSST Offense1330.433.941.5%4.411.2223991582413.753%46%44%39%18%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Auburn1229:2520.839%52%7.863.70.71.46.62.6326.8
Mississippi State1328:4121.643%45%7.261.61.21.44.31.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Offense1251% (60)47% (30)37.8176.94.723 (36).24 (13)3.19 (23)80% (17)11% (116)1 (54)
MSST Defense1353% (103)48% (124) - - - - .16 (97)3.41 (135)77% (108)8% (121)0.89 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Defense1248% (44)33% (5) - - - - -.11 (2)2.25 (4)70% (59)11% (20)0.89 (29)
MSST Offense1353% (42)44% (62)42.3157.83.729 (16).11 (71)2.81 (95)72% (72)12% (125)0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Offense1248% (78)40% (90)18.430.2197.16.510.711 (121)4 (3).13 (120)1.3 (134)31% (61)27% (106).21 (105)6% (51)2 (87)
MSST Defense1346% (36)40% (56) - - - - - - 13 (6).3 (91)1.7 (124)30% (100)31% (83).38 (110)6% (69)2.3 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Defense1251% (97)44% (99) - - - - - - 11 (75).27 (80)1.6 (81)32% (54)31% (90).3 (70)5% (90)2 (59)
MSST Offense1346% (92)39% (102)18.730241.48.112.920 (75)9 (60).21 (93)1.7 (18)34% (117)28% (85).3 (71)6% (81)2.3 (7)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 14.06  #21
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.44  #28
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.38  #18
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Auburn's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 14.06   Mississippi State: 8.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 11.6   Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.965  #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12  #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29  #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 30
Mississippi State 26

Projected Total Points: 56
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Auburn27Mississippi State13Auburn -6.5Auburn40.0Push
202211/05Mississippi State39Auburn33Mississippi State -12.5Auburn50.5Over
202111/13Auburn34Mississippi State43Auburn -6Mississippi State51.0Over
202012/12Mississippi State10Auburn24Auburn -5.5Auburn50.5Under
201909/28Auburn56Mississippi State23Auburn -7.5Auburn47.0Over
201810/06Mississippi State23Auburn9Auburn -3Mississippi State45.0Under
201709/30Auburn49Mississippi State10Auburn -7.5Auburn51.5Over
201610/08Mississippi State14Auburn38Mississippi State -1.5Auburn55.0Under
201509/26Auburn9Mississippi State17Auburn -3.5Mississippi State58.5Under
201410/11Mississippi State38Auburn23Auburn -3Mississippi State0
201309/14Auburn24Mississippi State20Auburn -6Mississippi State0
201209/08Mississippi State28Auburn10
201109/10Auburn41Mississippi State34
201009/09Mississippi State14Auburn17
200909/12Auburn49Mississippi State24
200809/13Mississippi State2Auburn3
200709/15Auburn14Mississippi State19
200609/09Mississippi State0Auburn34
200509/10Auburn28Mississippi State0
200409/11Mississippi State14Auburn43
200310/18Auburn45Mississippi State13
200209/19Mississippi State14Auburn42
200110/06Auburn16Mississippi State14
200010/06Mississippi State17Auburn10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State854 Overs
Auburn1664 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 105 - 63 - 52 - 1
Road Teams10 - 146 - 51 - 25 - 3

(#21) AUB at (#29) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAUBMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #21 #29
SP+SP+ #29 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #21 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #27
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #56 #102
ExplosiveExp #131 #71
PPAPPA #72 #110
PowerPwr #28 #48
SP+SP+ #59 #84
Pts POPPO #51 #69
HavocHav #99 #110
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #124
Run ExplRExp #54 #31
PPAExp #13 #97
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #23 #135
Stuff RateStuff #20 #126
TackleTak - NR
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #56
Pass ExplPExl #134 #124
PPAExp #120 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #116 #121
DB HavocDB #51 #69
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffAUB Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #86 #26
ExplosiveExp #45 #89
PPAPPA #90 #19
PowerPwr #22 #18
SP+SP+ #39 #16
Pts POPPO #22 #42
HavocHav #117 #50
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #5
Run ExplRExp #68 #29
PPAExp #71 #2
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #95 #4
Stuff RateStuff #84 #5
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffAUB Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #99
Pass ExplPExl #18 #81
PPAExp #93 #80
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #125 #20
DB HavocDB #81 #90
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

  
AUB's OC Kodi Burns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown (Tr)22634166%31582879.3
Tristan Ti'a (Tr)375370%385327.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown (Tr)1751008145.860
Jeremiah Cobb17596955.546
Bryson Washington (Tr)15478865.141
Tae Meadows (Tr)15969564.447
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton (Tr)50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger (Tr)38597815.763
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355
Christian Neptune (Tr)3833518.843

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins8417971
Fred Gaskin (Tr)533112
Kaleb Harris502101
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins8417971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Jared Smith54210
Da'Shawn Womack (Tr)275270
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Jordan1900010
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Sylvester Smith282003

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell14267764.843
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Brinston Williams2613715.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Evans III67831412.457
Marquis Johnson (Tr)28345212.349
Ayden Williams21252012.049
Fluff Bothwell1410507.539

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith641103
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015
Jalen Smith572021
Zakari Tillman473121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr.212231
Will Whitson85200
Kalvin Dinkins273200
Amaree Williams (Tr)102210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)272005
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015