Alabama at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS  (SEC)

 
Crimson Tide (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (20 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#22)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
ALA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -12.5  (SP+ ALA -10.5)
Projected Score: ALA: 34 - MSST: 22 (56)
ALA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ALA Travel: 74 miles
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Alabama's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Alabama vs East Carolina-16
Sat 9/12 Alabama at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 9/19 Alabama vs Florida State-13.5
Sat 9/26 Alabama vs South Carolina-12.5
Sat 10/3 Alabama at Mississippi State-12.5
Sat 10/10 Alabama vs Georgia+5
Sat 10/17 Alabama at Tennessee+2
Sat 10/24 Alabama vs Texas A&M+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Alabama at LSU+2
Sat 11/14 Alabama at Vanderbilt-0.5
Sat 11/21 Alabama vs Chattanooga-42.5
Sat 11/28 Alabama vs Auburn-6.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Mississippi State vs UL Monroe-25
Sat 9/12 Mississippi State at Minnesota+4.5
Sat 9/19 Mississippi State at South Carolina+7
Sat 9/26 Mississippi State vs Missouri+12
Sat 10/3 Mississippi State vs Alabama+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Mississippi State at LSU+17
Sat 10/24 Mississippi State vs Oklahoma+15.5
Sat 10/31 Mississippi State at Texas+20.5
Sat 11/7 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt+9.5
Sat 11/14 Mississippi State vs Auburn+8.5
Sat 11/21 Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech-28
Fri 11/27 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+20.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
MSST#90 (.14)42% (86)30.444% (62)2.81 (95)15839% (102)2414.41 (22)#110 (.22)44% (102)30.248% (124)40% (56)3.68 (69)61.61.21.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense1529.526.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2
MSST Defense1330.227.944.2%3.681.4 - - - - - 53%46%48%40%14%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense1519.223.737.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
MSST Offense1330.433.941.5%4.411.2223991582413.753%46%44%39%18%.14

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Mississippi State1328:4121.643%45%7.261.61.21.44.31.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)
MSST Defense1353% (103)48% (124) - - - - .16 (97)3.41 (135)77% (108)8% (121)0.89 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
MSST Offense1353% (42)44% (62)42.3157.83.729 (16).11 (71)2.81 (95)72% (72)12% (125)0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)
MSST Defense1346% (36)40% (56) - - - - - - 13 (6).3 (91)1.7 (124)30% (100)31% (83).38 (110)6% (69)2.3 (130)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
MSST Offense1346% (92)39% (102)18.730241.48.112.920 (75)9 (60).21 (93)1.7 (18)34% (117)28% (85).3 (71)6% (81)2.3 (7)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 23.60  #15
Alabama's Offense Rating: 20.84  #19
Alabama's Defense Rating: 2.24  #12
2026 Talent Rating: 1052.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 60%  #6
Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #20
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.60   Mississippi State: 6.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 14.8   Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 6.835  #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.28  #40
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.71  #74
2026 Talent Rating: 904.00  #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 13  #30
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 34
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 56
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Mississippi State17Alabama40Alabama -16.5Alabama45.0Over
202210/22Alabama30Mississippi State6Alabama -21.5Alabama61.5Under
202110/16Mississippi State9Alabama49Alabama -17.5Alabama59.5Under
202010/31Alabama41Mississippi State0Alabama -32.0Alabama0
201911/16Mississippi State7Alabama38Alabama -19Alabama61.0Under
201811/10Alabama24Mississippi State0Alabama -21.5Alabama50.0Under
201711/11Mississippi State24Alabama31Alabama -14.5Mississippi State50.0Over
201611/12Alabama51Mississippi State3Alabama -28.5Alabama52.5Over
201511/14Mississippi State6Alabama31Alabama -7Alabama51.5Under
201411/15Alabama25Mississippi State20Alabama -6.5Mississippi State0
201311/16Mississippi State7Alabama20Alabama -24.5Mississippi State0
201210/27Alabama38Mississippi State7
201111/12Mississippi State7Alabama24
201011/13Alabama30Mississippi State10
200911/14Mississippi State3Alabama31
200811/15Alabama32Mississippi State7
200711/10Mississippi State17Alabama12
200611/04Alabama16Mississippi State24
200511/05Mississippi State0Alabama17
200411/06Alabama30Mississippi State14
200311/08Mississippi State0Alabama38
200211/09Alabama28Mississippi State14
200111/10Alabama24Mississippi State17
200011/10Mississippi State29Alabama7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State333 Overs
Alabama2185 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 116 - 54 - 12 - 4
Road Teams11 - 135 - 64 - 21 - 4

(#15) ALA at (#59) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatALAMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #15 #59
SP+SP+ #20 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #8 #34
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #30
Alabama Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Shaky, '25 finish, new reality, talent down
(3/4) DBs one of the best units in CFB, deep & talented
(2/7) Least hyped Bama team since before Saban
(1/28) Lost 19 portals that went to P4 schools
(1/28) DeBoer a really good coach, is that enough?
(1/28) QB battle? Austin Mack vs phenom Keelon Russell
(1/28) RBs bad LY, lots of talent but no portal adds?
(1/28) WR L Brooks came on LY, Williams? Rogers added
(1/28) OL only 2 clear starters, 5/6 portal adds inexp'd
(1/28) Portal on lines: IN: 2 OL+5 DL, OUT: 7 OL+6 DL
(1/28) Portaled DTs w good exp but LB's/DE's needed
Alabama Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Uneven, hopeful on Off but 1-15 in SEC
(3/5) Rumor is OT Brandon Sneh is ineligible? Big loss
(2/2) DC Arnett back (HC in '23). Good DC hire
(2/2) QB Taylor is electric, pot star. Swann has exp
(2/2) RB looks avg. Fluff decent, not sure what else
(2/2) WR has Evans and some good parts. Decent unit
(2/2) OL lost 8, added 8 via portal (2 starters). Huge ?
(2/2) DL was awful LY, added some but not enough
(2/2) LBs have exp but none played well. Don't see it
(2/2) DBs return 2 good starters, added 2. Best Def unit
Mississippi State Injury Report
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #62 #102
ExplosiveExp #50 #71
PPAPPA #48 #110
PowerPwr #19 #74
SP+SP+ #36 #84
Pts POPPO #38 #69
HavocHav #39 #110
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #124
Run ExplRExp #122 #31
PPAExp #115 #97
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #109 #135
Stuff RateStuff #109 #126
TackleTak - NR
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #56
Pass ExplPExl #54 #124
PPAExp #37 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #121
DB HavocDB #42 #69
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffALA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #86 #23
ExplosiveExp #45 #61
PPAPPA #90 #27
PowerPwr #40 #12
SP+SP+ #39 #11
Pts POPPO #22 #66
HavocHav #117 #26
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffALA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #31
Run ExplRExp #68 #91
PPAExp #71 #66
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #95 #53
Stuff RateStuff #84 #66
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffALA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #33
Pass ExplPExl #18 #50
PPAExp #93 #17
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #125 #19
DB HavocDB #81 #47
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2023 (40-17)

  
ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Keelon Russell111573%143209.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Austin Mack92212.420
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853
Noah Rogers (Tr)31413213.348
Daniel Hill2820317.341

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Caleb Woodson (Tr)573011
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Keon Sabb523213
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Devan Thompkins (Tr)307312
Brayson Hubbard745218
Keon Sabb523213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Dijon Lee Jr.325005

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell14267764.843
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Brinston Williams2613715.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Evans III67831412.457
Marquis Johnson (Tr)28345212.349
Ayden Williams21252012.049
Fluff Bothwell1410507.539

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith641103
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015
Jalen Smith572021
Zakari Tillman473121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr.212231
Will Whitson85200
Kalvin Dinkins273200
Derion Gullette382221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)272005
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015