Mississippi State at Auburn - 2023 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo   Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers  Auburn logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -6.5 (40.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Auburn 27 - Mississippi State: 13  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Road Game
AUB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Auburn -11.5  (SP+ AUB -9)
Projected Score: MSST: 18 - AUB: 29 (47)
AUB Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 200 miles
Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Auburn's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Auburn vs Massachusetts-35.052.0W 59 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Auburn at California-5.055.5W 14 - 10UN
Sat 9/16 Auburn vs Samford-37.562.0W 45 - 13UN
Sat 9/23 Auburn at Texas A&M+9.551.0L 10 - 27UN
Sat 9/30 Auburn vs Georgia+14.044.5L 20 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Auburn at LSU+11.060.0L 18 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 Auburn vs Ole Miss+6.555.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 10/28 Auburn vs Mississippi State-6.540.0W 27 - 13UY
Sat 11/4 Auburn at Vanderbilt-12.550.0W 31 - 15UY
Sat 11/11 Auburn at Arkansas+2.546.5W 48 - 10OY
Sat 11/18 Auburn vs New Mexico State-25.548.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 Auburn vs Alabama+14.048.0L 24 - 27OY
Sat 12/30 Auburn vs Maryland-4.047.5L 13 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.1946%30.445%2.968247%3104.23.0939%30.241%38%3.5360.81.51.9
AUB.239%26.843%3.0120633%1733.74.1842%20.749%36%4.5757.31.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AUB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1330.425.846.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19
AUB Defense1220.716.442.2%4.571.5 - - - - - 49%51%49%36%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1330.23139.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
AUB Offense1226.826.439%3.741.8183792061735.159%40%43%33%19%.2

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Auburn1230:1318.136%59%7.557.31.81.55.22.2129.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89
AUB Defense1249%49% - - - - .233.1476%10%1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
AUB Offense1259%43%40.7205.85.125.253.0186%13%1.24

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2
AUB Defense1251%36% - - - - - - 6.131.534%32%.356%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
AUB Offense1240%33%13.325.7172.76.713912.141.837%27%.255%2.2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49  #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46  #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96  #85
2023 Talent Rating: 746.29  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 21%  #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4  #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49   Auburn: 9.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4   Auburn: 8.1




Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 9.69  #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07  #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76  #44
2023 Talent Rating: 770.94  #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1  #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 29
Mississippi State 18

Projected Total Points: 47
Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Auburn27Mississippi State13Auburn -6.5Auburn40.0Push
202211/05Mississippi State39Auburn33Mississippi State -12.5Auburn50.5Over
202111/13Auburn34Mississippi State43Auburn -6Mississippi State51.0Over
202012/12Mississippi State10Auburn24Auburn -5.5Auburn50.5Under
201909/28Auburn56Mississippi State23Auburn -7.5Auburn47.0Over
201810/06Mississippi State23Auburn9Auburn -3Mississippi State45.0Under
201709/30Auburn49Mississippi State10Auburn -7.5Auburn51.5Over
201610/08Mississippi State14Auburn38Mississippi State -1.5Auburn55.0Under
201509/26Auburn9Mississippi State17Auburn -3.5Mississippi State58.5Under
201410/11Mississippi State38Auburn23Auburn -3Mississippi State0
201309/14Auburn24Mississippi State20Auburn -6Mississippi State0
201209/08Mississippi State28Auburn10
201109/10Auburn41Mississippi State34
201009/09Mississippi State14Auburn17
200909/12Auburn49Mississippi State24
200809/13Mississippi State2Auburn3
200709/15Auburn14Mississippi State19
200609/09Mississippi State0Auburn34
200509/10Auburn28Mississippi State0
200409/11Mississippi State14Auburn43
200310/18Auburn45Mississippi State13
200209/19Mississippi State14Auburn42
200110/06Auburn16Mississippi State14
200010/06Mississippi State17Auburn10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Auburn1664 Overs
Mississippi State854 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 105 - 63 - 52 - 1
Road Teams10 - 146 - 51 - 25 - 3

(#84) MSST at (#32) AUB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTAUB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #84 #32
SP+SP+ #66 #36
Perf GradeGrade #76 #47
OffenseOff #86 #94
DefenseDef #71 #18
Spec TeamsST #24 #46
TalentTal #28 #18
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #15
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #86 #18
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #120 #44
SP+SP+ #78 #24
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #62 #21
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #21
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #76 #16
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #81
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Auburn on Offense
CategoryCatAUB OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #94 #71
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #70 #85
SP+SP+ #65 #55
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Auburn Run Game
CategoryCat
AUB OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #46 #76
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Auburn Pass Game
CategoryCatAUB OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #91 #51
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #64 #125
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Auburn -6.5 (40.0)
Auburn won vs Mississippi State this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

  
MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers14223760%16261246.9
Mike Wright (Tr)488557%453335.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks12157344.752
Seth Davis5935616.046
Mike Wright (Tr)7132434.653
Jeffery Pittman5426815.059
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)50658413.265
Zavion Thomas40503112.635
Justin Robinson21257012.230
Jo'quavious Marks2316727.332

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Decamerion Richardson791107
Corey Ellington664202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Jaden Crumedy354322
Corey Ellington664202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Decamerion Richardson791107
Deonte Anderson383114
Shawn Preston Jr.595013

AUB's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)16226561%175516106.6
Robby Ashford142752%145225.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jarquez Hunter15990975.767
Payton Thorne (Tr)13451533.861
Damari Alston6432025.056
Brian Battie (Tr)5122714.524
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)38394610.453
Ja'Varrius Johnson19347318.345
Jay Fair31324210.536
Caleb Burton (Tr)16226014.153

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eugene Asante869551
Jalen McLeod (Tr)5011651
Larry Nixon III (Tr)503020
Keionte Scott422025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Harris4011711
Jalen McLeod (Tr)5011651
Eugene Asante869551
Cam Riley314331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D.J. James384009
Kayin Lee192016
Keionte Scott422025