Mississippi State at LSU - 2026 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersLSU logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Tiger Stadium - Baton Rouge, LA

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST coming off BYE
LSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: LSU -13  (SP+ LSU -6)
Projected Score: MSST: 19 - LSU: 32 (51)
LSU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
MSST Travel: 253 miles
Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Mississippi State vs UL Monroe-27
Sat 9/12 Mississippi State at Minnesota+0
Sat 9/19 Mississippi State at South Carolina+5.5
Sat 9/26 Mississippi State vs Missouri+8.5
Sat 10/3 Mississippi State vs Alabama+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Mississippi State at LSU+13
Sat 10/24 Mississippi State vs Oklahoma+11
Sat 10/31 Mississippi State at Texas+17.5
Sat 11/7 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt+7.5
Sat 11/14 Mississippi State vs Auburn+4
Sat 11/21 Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech-30
Fri 11/27 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
LSU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 LSU vs Clemson-11
Sat 9/12 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-25.5
Sat 9/19 LSU at Ole Miss+6
Sat 9/26 LSU vs Texas A&M+3.5
Sat 10/3 LSU vs McNeese-40.5
Sat 10/10 LSU at Kentucky-12
Sat 10/17 LSU vs Mississippi State-13
Sat 10/24 LSU at Auburn-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 LSU vs Alabama-2
Sat 11/14 LSU vs Texas+2
Sat 11/21 LSU at Tennessee+1
Sat 11/28 LSU at Arkansas-11

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#90 (.14)42% (86)30.444% (62)2.81 (95)15839% (102)2414.41 (22)#110 (.22)44% (102)30.248% (124)40% (56)3.68 (69)61.61.21.4
LSU#121 (.06)39% (108)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)10541% (84)2303.35 (104)#28 (.08)39% (30)19.839% (34)39% (44)3.25 (32)59.31.11.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1330.425.841.5%4.411.2223991582413.753%46%44%39%18%.14
LSU Defense1319.816.938.8%3.251.6 - - - - - 48%51%39%39%17%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1330.23144.2%3.681.4 - - - - - 53%46%48%40%14%.22
LSU Offense1322.825.738.9%3.351.1193341052303.742%56%37%41%18%.06

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1328:4121.643%45%7.261.61.21.44.31.6029
LSU1330:1518.837%62%759.31.11.65.22.1229.8
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1353% (42)44% (62)42.3157.83.729 (16).11 (71)2.81 (95)72% (72)12% (125)0.96 (68)
LSU Defense1348% (43)39% (34) - - - - .01 (18)2.59 (15)64% (18)9% (93)0.9 (40)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1353% (103)48% (124) - - - - .16 (97)3.41 (135)77% (108)8% (121)0.89 (31)
LSU Offense1342% (122)37% (122)28.6104.83.710 (107).01 (121)2.46 (132)64% (115)11% (116)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1346% (92)39% (102)18.730241.48.112.920 (75)9 (60).21 (93)1.7 (18)34% (117)28% (85).3 (71)6% (81)2.3 (7)
LSU Defense1351% (105)39% (44) - - - - - - 17 (22).18 (39)1.6 (71)34% (29)29% (60).22 (37)8% (11)1.9 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1346% (36)40% (56) - - - - - - 13 (6).3 (91)1.7 (124)30% (100)31% (83).38 (110)6% (69)2.3 (130)
LSU Offense1356% (14)41% (84)22.434.1229.56.710.320 (50)7 (60).18 (105)1.4 (109)36% (129)31% (69).23 (96)7% (99)1.9 (96)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.83  #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12  #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29  #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.83   LSU: 19.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1   LSU: 10.3




LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 19.69  #11
LSU's Offense Rating: 21.13  #13
LSU's Defense Rating: 2.05  #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1054.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 71  #4
LSU's 2026 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #32
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 32
Mississippi State 19

Projected Total Points: 51
LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/16Mississippi State14LSU41LSU -9.5LSU54.0Over
202209/17LSU31Mississippi State16Mississippi State -3LSU53.0Under
202109/25Mississippi State25LSU28LSU -1.5LSU54.5Under
202009/26LSU34Mississippi State44LSU -14.5Mississippi State57.0Over
201910/19Mississippi State13LSU36LSU -17.5LSU62.0Under
201810/20LSU19Mississippi State3LSU -6LSU45.5Under
201709/16Mississippi State37LSU7LSU -7.5Mississippi State53.5Under
201609/17LSU23Mississippi State20LSU -13Mississippi State47.0Under
201509/12Mississippi State19LSU21LSU -3Mississippi State52.5Under
201409/20LSU29Mississippi State34LSU -7Mississippi State0
201310/05Mississippi State26LSU59LSU -9.5LSU0
201211/10LSU37Mississippi State17
201109/15Mississippi State6LSU19
201009/18LSU29Mississippi State7
200909/26Mississippi State26LSU30
200809/27LSU34Mississippi State24
200708/30Mississippi State0LSU45
200609/30LSU48Mississippi State17
200510/01Mississippi State7LSU37
200409/25LSU51Mississippi State0
200309/27Mississippi State6LSU41
200209/28LSU31Mississippi State13
200110/20Mississippi State0LSU42
200010/20LSU45Mississippi State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
LSU2162 Overs
Mississippi State357 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 71 - 33 - 4
Road Teams13 - 117 - 44 - 33 - 1

(#29) MSST at (#11) LSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTLSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #11
SP+SP+ #58 #32
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #16 #6
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #4
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffLSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #86 #30
ExplosiveExp #45 #60
PPAPPA #90 #28
PowerPwr #22 #7
SP+SP+ #39 #11
Pts POPPO #22 #32
HavocHav #117 #40
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffLSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #34
Run ExplRExp #68 #40
PPAExp #71 #18
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #95 #15
Stuff RateStuff #84 #9
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffLSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #44
Pass ExplPExl #18 #71
PPAExp #93 #39
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #125 #93
DB HavocDB #81 #11
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #108 #102
ExplosiveExp #91 #71
PPAPPA #121 #110
PowerPwr #13 #48
SP+SP+ #75 #84
Pts POPPO #104 #69
HavocHav #113 #110
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #124
Run ExplRExp #87 #31
PPAExp #121 #97
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #132 #135
Stuff RateStuff #133 #126
TackleTak - NR
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLSU OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #56
Pass ExplPExl #109 #124
PPAExp #105 #91
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #116 #121
DB HavocDB #99 #69
Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Down to Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
LSU beat Mississippi State in 2023 (41-14)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell14267764.843
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Brinston Williams2613715.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Evans III67831412.457
Marquis Johnson (Tr)28345212.349
Ayden Williams21252012.049
Fluff Bothwell1410507.539

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith641103
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015
Jalen Smith572021
Zakari Tillman473121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr.212231
Will Whitson85200
Kalvin Dinkins273200
Amaree Williams (Tr)102210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)272005
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015

LSU's OC Charlie Weis Jr (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)14523961%16281036.8
Husan Longstreet (Tr)131587%103106.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Holly16283095.180
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Sam Leavitt (Tr)7330654.252
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Tre' Brown III (Tr)38762420.198
Jayce Brown (Tr)41712517.478
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield (Tr)1059013
TJ Dottery (Tr)986212
Davhon Keys894162
Tamarcus Cooley702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Stephiylan Green (Tr)183311
Jordan Ross (Tr)244222
Dylan Carpenter93200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
P.J. Woodland382128
Ty Benefield (Tr)1059013
DJ Pickett353203