Kentucky at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kentucky -5.5 (44.5) (-180)  Open: -3.5 | 46.0
Kentucky 24 - Mississippi State: 3  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (27 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Kentucky -6   (SP+ UK -9.5)
Projected Score: UK: 27 - MSST: 21 (48)
UK Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)29.141% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)25.842% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)21.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)26.642% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1329.126.840%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22
MSST Defense1226.625.142.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1325.82643.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
MSST Offense1221.825.335.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64   Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.8
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 27
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 48

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Mississippi State3Kentucky24KentuckyKentucky -5.5Kentucky44.5Under
202210/15Kentucky27Mississippi State17KentuckyMississippi State -3.5Kentucky50.5Under
202110/30Mississippi State31Kentucky17Mississippi StateMississippi State -1Mississippi State47.0Over
202010/10Kentucky24Mississippi State2KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky57.5Under
201909/21Mississippi State28Kentucky13Mississippi StateMississippi State -5.5Mississippi State48.0Under
201809/22Kentucky28Mississippi State7KentuckyMississippi State -9.5Kentucky56.0Under
201710/21Mississippi State45Kentucky7Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Mississippi State54.5Under
201610/22Kentucky40Mississippi State38KentuckyMississippi State -1.5Kentucky54.5Over
201510/24Mississippi State42Kentucky16Mississippi StateMississippi State -11.5Mississippi State59.0Under
201410/25Kentucky31Mississippi State45Mississippi StateMississippi State -13Mississippi State0
201310/24Mississippi State28Kentucky22Mississippi StateMississippi State -11Kentucky0
201210/06Kentucky14Mississippi State27Mississippi State
201110/29Kentucky16Mississippi State28Mississippi State
201010/30Mississippi State24Kentucky17Mississippi State
200910/31Kentucky24Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200811/01Mississippi State13Kentucky14Kentucky
200710/27Kentucky14Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200610/28Mississippi State31Kentucky34Kentucky
200510/29Kentucky13Mississippi State7Kentucky
200410/30Mississippi State22Kentucky7Mississippi State
200310/25Kentucky42Mississippi State17Kentucky
200211/02Mississippi State24Kentucky45Kentucky
200111/03Mississippi State17Kentucky14Mississippi State
200011/03Kentucky17Mississippi State35Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1452 Overs
Kentucky1067 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 108 - 35 - 13 - 2
Road Teams10 - 143 - 82 - 31 - 5

(#43) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30


Kentucky has lost 3 straight
Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky offense is explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#60)
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)
Kentucky Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#46)
Kentucky Defensive Line is very good (#45)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMSSTUK
OverallOver#62#32
OffenseOff#75#59
DefenseDef#57#26
Special TeamsST#24#49
PassingPass#62#51
RushingRush#44#12
Run BlockRBLK#56#74
Pass BlockPBLK#42#53
Route RunningWR Rt#84#50
TacklingTkl#31#40
Run DefenseR Def#66#31
Pass Rush DefPRush#92#46
Coverage DefCov#41#33

Rematch from Week 10
Kentucky 5.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won at Mississippi State this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2022 (27-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | MSST
Depth Chart: UK | MSST
Rosters: UK | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90


Mississippi State has lost 1 straight
Mississippi State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 4 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State offense is really bad (#33)
Mississippi State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#57)
Mississippi State run game is really bad (#18)
Mississippi State pass game is really bad (#62)
Mississippi State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Mississippi State has a bad red zone defense (#65)


  
Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devin Leary (Tr)20937156%274625127.4
Kaiya Sheron2450%5001.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Mahn Davis1991129145.775
Ramon Jefferson2818406.674
Barion Brown12147112.326
Demie Sumo2013917.042
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key42636615.158
Tayvion Robinson41552413.556
Barion Brown43539412.560
Re'Mahn Davis3332379.858

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Eryk Jackson898224
Trevin Wallace809630
Maxwell Hairston662006
Zion Childress582103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deone Walker5513882
J.J. Weaver448622
Trevin Wallace809630
Octavious Oxendine194320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxwell Hairston662006
Andru Phillips482005
D'Eryk Jackson898224

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers14223760%16261246.9
Mike Wright (Tr)488557%453335.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks12157344.752
Seth Davis5935616.046
Mike Wright (Tr)7132434.653
Jeffery Pittman5426815.059
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)50658413.265
Zavion Thomas40503112.635
Justin Robinson21257012.230
Jo'quavious Marks2316727.332

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Decamerion Richardson791107
Corey Ellington664202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Jaden Crumedy354322
Corey Ellington664202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Decamerion Richardson791107
Deonte Anderson383114
Shawn Preston Jr.595013