Kentucky at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kentucky -5.5 (44.5) (-180)  Open: -3.5 | 46.0
Kentucky 24 - Mississippi State: 3  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Kentucky -6   (SP+ UK -9.5)
Projected Score: UK: 28 - MSST: 22 (51)
UK Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK.1140%20.643%311637%2083.23.0737%22.138%37%3.1539.51.51.5
MSST.1946%25.845%2.968247%3104.23.0939%34.141%38%3.5360.81.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1320.61839.8%3.231.5183251162083.351%48%43%37%18%.11
MSST Defense1334.134.939.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1322.13137.2%3.151.5 - - - - - 54%46%38%37%14%.07
MSST Offense1325.830.746.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1333:0817.634%62%5.739.51.51.541.5227.5
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1351%43%35.6116.23.39.05365%13%0.78
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1354%38% - - - - .062.9162%8%1
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1348%37%17.226.8208.57.812.12113.231.934%28%.226%2
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1346%37% - - - - - - 10.141.534%26%.186%2.1
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64   Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 28
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 51
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Mississippi State3Kentucky24KentuckyKentucky -5.5Kentucky44.5Under
202210/15Kentucky27Mississippi State17KentuckyMississippi State -3.5Kentucky50.5Under
202110/30Mississippi State31Kentucky17Mississippi StateMississippi State -1Mississippi State47.0Over
202010/10Kentucky24Mississippi State2KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky57.5Under
201909/21Mississippi State28Kentucky13Mississippi StateMississippi State -5.5Mississippi State48.0Under
201809/22Kentucky28Mississippi State7KentuckyMississippi State -9.5Kentucky56.0Under
201710/21Mississippi State45Kentucky7Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Mississippi State54.5Under
201610/22Kentucky40Mississippi State38KentuckyMississippi State -1.5Kentucky54.5Over
201510/24Mississippi State42Kentucky16Mississippi StateMississippi State -11.5Mississippi State59.0Under
201410/25Kentucky31Mississippi State45Mississippi StateMississippi State -13Mississippi State0
201310/24Mississippi State28Kentucky22Mississippi StateMississippi State -11Kentucky0
201210/06Kentucky14Mississippi State27Mississippi State
201110/29Kentucky16Mississippi State28Mississippi State
201010/30Mississippi State24Kentucky17Mississippi State
200910/31Kentucky24Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200811/01Mississippi State13Kentucky14Kentucky
200710/27Kentucky14Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200610/28Mississippi State31Kentucky34Kentucky
200510/29Kentucky13Mississippi State7Kentucky
200410/30Mississippi State22Kentucky7Mississippi State
200310/25Kentucky42Mississippi State17Kentucky
200211/02Mississippi State24Kentucky45Kentucky
200111/03Mississippi State17Kentucky14Mississippi State
200011/03Kentucky17Mississippi State35Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1452 Overs
Kentucky1067 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 108 - 35 - 13 - 2
Road Teams10 - 143 - 82 - 31 - 5

(#43) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30

Team Profile






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Kentucky     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #43
#84
Off #60
#120
Def #72
#85
Talent #25
#31
SP+ #31
#66
SP+ Off #44
#78
SP+ Def #33
#55

Rematch from Week 10
Kentucky 5.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won at Mississippi State this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2022 (27-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 62°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | MSST
Depth Chart: UK | MSST
Rosters: UK | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile






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Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deuce Hogan61833%31021.7
Wilson Berry010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Deuce Hogan4-30-0.813
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Demie Sumo2015407.718
Shamar Porter6113318.839
Izayah Cummings333011.019
Ardell Banks220010.013

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Childress556162
Deone Walker375202
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Elijah Reed322014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaten Wade207410
J.J. Weaver317441
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Reed322014
Maxwell Hairston191104
D'Eryk Jackson324103

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers22031171%24581477.9
Mike Wright (Tr)396758%356015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Simeon Price4413603.118
Mike Wright (Tr)178214.820
Zavion Thomas97608.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks4732106.833
Justin Robinson16244315.350
Zavion Thomas2321829.521
Ryland Goede (Tr)670111.725

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Ellington531003
Will James352007
J.P. Purvis350000
Luke Evans311003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Ellington531003
Caleb Bryant40000
Ryland Goede (Tr)10000
Keelan Crimmins10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will James352007
Corey Ellington531003
Luke Evans311003