Kentucky at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kentucky -5.5 (44.5) (-180) Open: -3.5 | 46.0
Kentucky 24 - Mississippi State: 3 (SEC)

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Kentucky -6 (SP+ UK -9.5)
Projected Score: UK: 27 - MSST: 21 (49)
UK Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	.11	40%	23	43%	3	116	37%	208	3.23	.07	37%	26.4	38%	37%	3.15	39.5	1.5	1.5
MSST	.19	46%	30.4	45%	2.96	82	47%	310	4.23	.09	39%	30.2	41%	38%	3.53	60.8	1.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	13	23	10.8	39.8%	3.23	1.5	18	325	116	208	3.3	51%	48%	43%	37%	18%	.11
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	39.2%	3.53	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	41%	38%	18%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	13	26.4	31.8	37.2%	3.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	37%	14%	.07
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	46.2%	4.23	1.5	23	393	82	310	3.6	30%	70%	45%	47%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	13	33:08	17.6	34%	62%	5.7	39.5	1.5	1.5	4	1.5	2	27.5
Mississippi State	13	29:58	22.8	39%	52%	6.3	60.8	1.5	1.9	6.4	2.4	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	13	51%	43%	35.6	116.2	3.3	9	.05	3	65%	13%	0.78
MSST Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.79	59%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.91	62%	8%	1
MSST Offense	13	30%	45%	22.8	82.4	3.6	12	.12	2.96	60%	8%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	13	48%	37%	17.2	26.8	208.5	7.8	12.1	21	13	.23	1.9	34%	28%	.22	6%	2
MSST Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.6	34%	28%	.09	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	13	46%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.5	34%	26%	.18	6%	2.1
MSST Offense	13	70%	47%	32.8	48.8	310.4	6.4	9.5	36	9	.22	1.2	27%	30%	.31	8%	2

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 740.54 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 746.29 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 27
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Mississippi State	3	Kentucky	24	Kentucky -5.5	Kentucky	44.5	Under
2022	10/15	Kentucky	27	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -3.5	Kentucky	50.5	Under
2021	10/30	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State -1	Mississippi State	47.0	Over
2020	10/10	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	2	Kentucky -3.5	Kentucky	57.5	Under
2019	09/21	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State -5.5	Mississippi State	48.0	Under
2018	09/22	Kentucky	28	Mississippi State	7	Mississippi State -9.5	Kentucky	56.0	Under
2017	10/21	Mississippi State	45	Kentucky	7	Mississippi State -14	Mississippi State	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Kentucky	40	Mississippi State	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Kentucky	54.5	Over
2015	10/24	Mississippi State	42	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State -11.5	Mississippi State	59.0	Under
2014	10/25	Kentucky	31	Mississippi State	45	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	0
2013	10/24	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	22	Mississippi State -11	Kentucky	0
2012	10/06	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	27
2011	10/29	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State	28
2010	10/30	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	17
2009	10/31	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	31
2008	11/01	Mississippi State	13	Kentucky	14
2007	10/27	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	31
2006	10/28	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	34
2005	10/29	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State	7
2004	10/30	Mississippi State	22	Kentucky	7
2003	10/25	Kentucky	42	Mississippi State	17
2002	11/02	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	45
2001	11/03	Mississippi State	17	Kentucky	14
2000	11/03	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	14	5	2 Overs
Kentucky	10	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	8 - 3	5 - 1	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 14	3 - 8	2 - 3	1 - 5

(#43) UK at (#84) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#43	#84
SP+SP+	#31	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#39	#76
OffenseOff	#65	#86
DefenseDef	#30	#71
Spec TeamsST	#60	#24
TalentTal	#31	#28
Blue ChipsBC%	#20	#32

Kentucky Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#60	#85
SP+SP+	#44	#55
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#19	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#34

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#120	#72
SP+SP+	#78	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#62	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#45

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#49	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Kentucky 5.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won at Mississippi State this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3