Mississippi State at Alabama - 2022 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, October 22nd 2022 (7:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -21.5 (61.5)
Alabama 30 - Mississippi State: 6 (SEC)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Mike Leach (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Road Game
ALA is playing their 8th straight game
MSST is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -10 (SP+ ALA -15)
Projected Score: MSST: 22 - ALA: 33 (55)
ALA Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 74 miles

Crimson Tide (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Nick Saban (177 - 25)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Alabama's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Alabama vs Utah State	-42.0	63.0	W 55 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Alabama at Texas	-21.0	64.0	W 20 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/17	Alabama vs UL Monroe	-49.5	68.5	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Alabama vs Vanderbilt	-40.5	61.0	W 55 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Alabama at Arkansas	-17.0	61.0	W 49 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Alabama vs Texas A&M	-24.0	48.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/15	Alabama at Tennessee	-9.0	68.0	L 49 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/22	Alabama vs Mississippi State	-21.5	61.5	W 30 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Alabama at LSU	-13.5	56.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/12	Alabama at Ole Miss	-11.0	65.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/19	Alabama vs Austin Peay	-45.0	58.0	W 34 - 0	U	N
Sat 11/26	Alabama vs Auburn	-22.0	51.0	W 49 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/31	Alabama vs Kansas State	-8.0	58.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.24	50%	30.4	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	30.2	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3
ALA	.3	47%	29.5	49%	3.15	150	45%	338	4.53	.07	38%	19.2	37%	39%	3.89	66	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24
ALA Defense	15	19.2	11.4	38.2%	3.89	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	37%	39%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18
ALA Offense	15	29.5	39.3	46.6%	4.53	0.9	24	488	150	338	4.1	43%	57%	49%	45%	15%	.3

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7
Alabama	15	32:22	24.5	52%	53%	7.1	66	0.9	1.4	7.9	3.8	6	29

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71
ALA Defense	15	44%	37%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.55	71%	14%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95
ALA Offense	15	43%	49%	36.5	150	4.1	21	.14	3.15	76%	11%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9
ALA Defense	15	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.14	1.6	35%	25%	.15	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2
ALA Offense	15	57%	45%	25.3	38.1	338.2	8.9	13.4	48	7	.42	1.8	31%	41%	.59	4%	2.2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Alabama: 17.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 15.4 Alabama: 30.3

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 17.65 NR
Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Alabama's 2022 Expected Record: -
Alabama's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 30.3 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.9 #8
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #12

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 33
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 55

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2022 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Mississippi State	17	Alabama	40	Alabama -16.5	Alabama	45.0	Over
2022	10/22	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	6	Alabama -21.5	Alabama	61.5	Under
2021	10/16	Mississippi State	9	Alabama	49	Alabama -17.5	Alabama	59.5	Under
2020	10/31	Alabama	41	Mississippi State	0	Alabama -32.0	Alabama	0
2019	11/16	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	38	Alabama -19	Alabama	61.0	Under
2018	11/10	Alabama	24	Mississippi State	0	Alabama -21.5	Alabama	50.0	Under
2017	11/11	Mississippi State	24	Alabama	31	Alabama -14.5	Mississippi State	50.0	Over
2016	11/12	Alabama	51	Mississippi State	3	Alabama -28.5	Alabama	52.5	Over
2015	11/14	Mississippi State	6	Alabama	31	Alabama -7	Alabama	51.5	Under
2014	11/15	Alabama	25	Mississippi State	20	Alabama -6.5	Mississippi State	0
2013	11/16	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	20	Alabama -24.5	Mississippi State	0
2012	10/27	Alabama	38	Mississippi State	7
2011	11/12	Mississippi State	7	Alabama	24
2010	11/13	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	10
2009	11/14	Mississippi State	3	Alabama	31
2008	11/15	Alabama	32	Mississippi State	7
2007	11/10	Mississippi State	17	Alabama	12
2006	11/04	Alabama	16	Mississippi State	24
2005	11/05	Mississippi State	0	Alabama	17
2004	11/06	Alabama	30	Mississippi State	14
2003	11/08	Mississippi State	0	Alabama	38
2002	11/09	Alabama	28	Mississippi State	14
2001	11/10	Alabama	24	Mississippi State	17
2000	11/10	Mississippi State	29	Alabama	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	21	8	3 Overs
Mississippi State	3	3	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 13	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4

(#) MSST at (#) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#19	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#6
OffenseOff	#78	#13
DefenseDef	#66	#6
Spec TeamsST	#1	#31
TalentTal	#29	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#12
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#48	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#12
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#13	#66
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#28	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#6	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'22 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Alabama -21.5 (61.5)
Alabama won vs Mississippi State this year (30-6)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2023 (40-17)

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ALA's OC Bill O'Brien (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD