Mississippi State at Kentucky - 2022 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -3.5 (50.5)
Kentucky 27 - Mississippi State: 17 (SEC)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Mike Leach (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UK 2nd straight Home Game
UK is playing their 7th straight game
MSST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ MSST -2.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 26 - UK: 29 (55)
MSST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (59 - 53)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Kentucky vs Miami (OH)	-15.0	55.0	W 37 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Kentucky at Florida	+6.0	53.0	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Kentucky vs Youngstown State	-30.0	49.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Kentucky vs Northern Illinois	-27.0	52.5	W 31 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/1	Kentucky at Ole Miss	+6.5	55.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Kentucky vs South Carolina	-4.0	45.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/15	Kentucky vs Mississippi State	+3.5	50.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Kentucky at Tennessee	+10.5	62.5	L 6 - 44	U	N
Sat 11/5	Kentucky at Missouri	+1.0	40.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Kentucky vs Vanderbilt	-17.0	45.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/19	Kentucky vs Georgia	+22.5	47.5	L 6 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Kentucky vs Louisville	-3.5	42.5	W 26 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/31	Kentucky vs Iowa	+3.0	31.5	L 0 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.24	50%	30.4	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	30.2	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3
UK	.26	50%	23	52%	3.57	200	49%	226	4.88	.16	44%	26.4	42%	47%	3.61	42.2	1.8	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24
UK Defense	13	26.4	22.6	44.4%	3.61	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	42%	47%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18
UK Offense	13	23	31.7	50.4%	4.88	1.8	23	425	200	226	5.2	55%	45%	52%	49%	15%	.26

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7
Kentucky	13	32:35	22.8	50%	38%	4.8	42.2	1.8	0.9	6.1	2.2	4	27.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71
UK Defense	13	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	.06	3.03	76%	11%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95
UK Offense	13	55%	52%	38.2	199.5	5.2	27	.23	3.57	78%	9%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9
UK Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.27	1.4	32%	29%	.2	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2
UK Offense	13	45%	49%	18.6	28.2	225.6	8	12.1	24	13	.31	1.5	27%	39%	.44	6%	1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Kentucky: 9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 15.4 Kentucky: 13.0

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 9 NR
Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Kentucky's 2022 Expected Record: -
Kentucky's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #25
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #91
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.9 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 29
Mississippi State 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 12
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/04	Mississippi State	3	Kentucky	24	Kentucky -5.5	Kentucky	44.5	Under
2022	10/15	Kentucky	27	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -3.5	Kentucky	50.5	Under
2021	10/30	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State -1	Mississippi State	47.0	Over
2020	10/10	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	2	Kentucky -3.5	Kentucky	57.5	Under
2019	09/21	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State -5.5	Mississippi State	48.0	Under
2018	09/22	Kentucky	28	Mississippi State	7	Mississippi State -9.5	Kentucky	56.0	Under
2017	10/21	Mississippi State	45	Kentucky	7	Mississippi State -14	Mississippi State	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Kentucky	40	Mississippi State	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Kentucky	54.5	Over
2015	10/24	Mississippi State	42	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State -11.5	Mississippi State	59.0	Under
2014	10/25	Kentucky	31	Mississippi State	45	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	0
2013	10/24	Mississippi State	28	Kentucky	22	Mississippi State -11	Kentucky	0
2012	10/06	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	27
2011	10/29	Kentucky	16	Mississippi State	28
2010	10/30	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	17
2009	10/31	Kentucky	24	Mississippi State	31
2008	11/01	Mississippi State	13	Kentucky	14
2007	10/27	Kentucky	14	Mississippi State	31
2006	10/28	Mississippi State	31	Kentucky	34
2005	10/29	Kentucky	13	Mississippi State	7
2004	10/30	Mississippi State	22	Kentucky	7
2003	10/25	Kentucky	42	Mississippi State	17
2002	11/02	Mississippi State	24	Kentucky	45
2001	11/03	Mississippi State	17	Kentucky	14
2000	11/03	Kentucky	17	Mississippi State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	10	6	2 Overs
Mississippi State	14	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	8 - 3	5 - 1	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 14	3 - 8	2 - 3	1 - 5

(#) MSST at (#) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#19	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#61
OffenseOff	#78	#72
DefenseDef	#66	#38
Spec TeamsST	#1	#131
TalentTal	#29	#27
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#38
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#6
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#48	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#9
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#66
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#66
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#54	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#94	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Mississippi State 3.5 (50.5)
Kentucky won vs Mississippi State this year (27-17)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UK's OC Rich Scangarello (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD