Mississippi State at South Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksSouth Carolina logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Williams-Brice Stadium - Columbia, SC

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Road Game
SC 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: South Carolina -5.5  (SP+ SC -2)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - SC: 29 (53)
SC Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gamecocks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Shane Beamer (33 - 30)
Avg Score : 23 - 22 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Mississippi State vs UL Monroe-27
Sat 9/12 Mississippi State at Minnesota+0
Sat 9/19 Mississippi State at South Carolina+5.5
Sat 9/26 Mississippi State vs Missouri+8.5
Sat 10/3 Mississippi State vs Alabama+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Mississippi State at LSU+13
Sat 10/24 Mississippi State vs Oklahoma+11
Sat 10/31 Mississippi State at Texas+17.5
Sat 11/7 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt+7.5
Sat 11/14 Mississippi State vs Auburn+4
Sat 11/21 Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech-30
Fri 11/27 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
South Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 South Carolina vs Kent State-29
Sat 9/12 South Carolina vs Towson-33
Sat 9/19 South Carolina vs Mississippi State-5.5
Sat 9/26 South Carolina at Alabama+11
Sat 10/3 South Carolina vs Kentucky-9
Sat 10/10 South Carolina at Florida+2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 South Carolina vs Tennessee+4
Sat 10/31 South Carolina at Oklahoma+13.5
Sat 11/7 South Carolina vs Texas A&M+11.5
Sat 11/14 South Carolina at Arkansas-3
Sat 11/21 South Carolina vs Georgia+15
Sat 11/28 South Carolina at Clemson+2

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#90 (.14)42% (86)30.444% (62)2.81 (95)15839% (102)2414.41 (22)#110 (.22)44% (102)30.248% (124)40% (56)3.68 (69)61.61.21.4
SC#109 (.1)37% (118)22.739% (107)2.89 (77)11236% (120)2252.61 (134)#30 (.09)42% (67)22.139% (39)44% (106)3.15 (29)57.31.51.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1330.425.841.5%4.411.2223991582413.753%46%44%39%18%.14
SC Defense1222.120.641.6%3.151.8 - - - - - 51%47%39%44%16%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1330.23144.2%3.681.4 - - - - - 53%46%48%40%14%.22
SC Offense1222.724.937.2%2.611.5183371122253.349%50%39%36%20%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1328:4121.643%45%7.261.61.21.44.31.6029
South Carolina1227:5817.732%50%7.357.31.51.85.31.8426.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1353% (42)44% (62)42.3157.83.729 (16).11 (71)2.81 (95)72% (72)12% (125)0.96 (68)
SC Defense1251% (86)39% (39) - - - - -.06 (8)2.7 (31)68% (42)10% (49)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1353% (103)48% (124) - - - - .16 (97)3.41 (135)77% (108)8% (121)0.89 (31)
SC Offense1249% (73)39% (107)34111.63.314 (107).09 (81)2.89 (77)62% (124)14% (132)1.07 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1346% (92)39% (102)18.730241.48.112.920 (75)9 (60).21 (93)1.7 (18)34% (117)28% (85).3 (71)6% (81)2.3 (7)
SC Defense1247% (54)44% (106) - - - - - - 12 (22).25 (72)1.5 (40)31% (83)29% (68).14 (14)6% (69)1.9 (39)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1346% (36)40% (56) - - - - - - 13 (6).3 (91)1.7 (124)30% (100)31% (83).38 (110)6% (69)2.3 (130)
SC Offense1250% (63)36% (120)17.428.5225.37.912.913 (121)11 (60).17 (109)1.7 (30)36% (131)24% (127).14 (125)6% (81)1.8 (119)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.83  #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12  #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29  #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.83   South Carolina: 11.795

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1   South Carolina: 5.9




South Carolina's Power Ratings
South Carolina's Power Rating: 11.795  #23
South Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.78  #38
South Carolina's Defense Rating: 7.09  #15
2026 Talent Rating: 944.00  #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #20
South Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #49
South Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
South Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Carolina 29
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 53
South Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

South Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23South Carolina37Mississippi State30South Carolina -6South Carolina46.5Over
201609/10Mississippi State27South Carolina14Mississippi State -9.5Mississippi State50.5Under
201311/02South Carolina34Mississippi State16South Carolina -11.5South Carolina0
201110/15Mississippi State12South Carolina14
200709/29South Carolina38Mississippi State21
200608/31Mississippi State0South Carolina15
200210/05South Carolina34Mississippi State10
200109/20Mississippi State14South Carolina16
200009/22South Carolina23Mississippi State19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Carolina821 Overs
Mississippi State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 33 - 03 - 00 - 0
Road Teams3 - 60 - 30 - 00 - 3

(#29) MSST at (#23) SC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #23
SP+SP+ #58 #49
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #16 #22
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #20
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #86 #67
ExplosiveExp #45 #36
PPAPPA #90 #30
PowerPwr #22 #15
SP+SP+ #39 #31
Pts POPPO #22 #29
HavocHav #117 #61
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #39
Run ExplRExp #68 #24
PPAExp #71 #8
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #95 #31
Stuff RateStuff #84 #26
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #106
Pass ExplPExl #18 #40
PPAExp #93 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #125 #49
DB HavocDB #81 #69
South Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatSC OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #118 #102
ExplosiveExp #19 #71
PPAPPA #109 #110
PowerPwr #38 #48
SP+SP+ #86 #84
Pts POPPO #134 #69
HavocHav #130 #110
South Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
SC OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #124
Run ExplRExp #30 #31
PPAExp #81 #97
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #77 #135
Stuff RateStuff #44 #126
TackleTak - NR
South Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatSC OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #120 #56
Pass ExplPExl #30 #124
PPAExp #109 #91
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #132 #121
DB HavocDB #81 #69
Program Comparison
SC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams-Brice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
South Carolina beat Mississippi State in 2023 (37-30)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell14267764.843
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Brinston Williams2613715.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Evans III67831412.457
Marquis Johnson (Tr)28345212.349
Ayden Williams21252012.049
Fluff Bothwell1410507.539

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith641103
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015
Jalen Smith572021
Zakari Tillman473121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darron Reed Jr.212231
Will Whitson85200
Kalvin Dinkins273200
Amaree Williams (Tr)102210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)272005
Marcus Williams (Tr)614015

SC's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lanorris Sellers17829361%24371388.3
Lucian Anderson III (Tr)264163%245236.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lanorris Sellers14927051.826
Matthew Fuller7226023.672
Christian Clark (Tr)5523624.322
Lucian Anderson III (Tr)3013814.675
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nyck Harbor30618620.680
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
Jayden Sellers22337115.375
DJ Black (Tr)22273212.482

View South Carolina's Full Roster

SC's DC Clayton White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Okoronkwo634021
Fred Johnson624143
Peyton Williams502102
Shawn Murphy494011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Herring (Tr)156462
Dylan Stewart3112462
Drew Collins (Tr)64320
Kelby Collins (Tr)103200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vicari Swain281105
Fred Johnson624143
Peyton Williams502102