Mississippi State at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (4:15 PM EDT)
Florida -9.5 (50.5) (-360)  Open: -9.5
Florida 23 - Mississippi State: 21  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Florida -2.5  (SP+ MSST -0.5)

Projected Score: MSST: 25 - FLA: 27 (52)
FLA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
MSST Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)21.645% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)2449% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1230.425.839.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
FLA Defense132418.743.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1230.23150.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
FLA Offense1321.62943%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 11.40  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #43
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 11.40   Florida: 10.195

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1   Florida: 3.5




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 10.195  #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44  #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 27
Mississippi State 25


Projected Total Points: 52
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Florida23Mississippi State21Florida -9.5Mississippi State50.5Under
202409/21Mississippi State28Florida45Florida -6.5Florida58.0Over
201809/29Mississippi State6Florida13Mississippi State -6.5Florida49.5Under
201010/16Florida7Mississippi State10
200910/24Mississippi State19Florida29
200510/08Florida35Mississippi State9
200410/23Mississippi State38Florida31
200109/29Florida52Mississippi State0
200009/29Mississippi State47Florida35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida621 Overs
Mississippi State312 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 1
Road Teams4 - 53 - 01 - 02 - 0

(#38) MSST at (#33) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #38 #33
SP+SP+ #58 #63
Perf GradeGrade #105 #49
OffenseOff #84 #51
DefenseDef #119 #62
Spec TeamsST #77 #86
TalentTal #40 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #12
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #62
SuccessSuc #109 #95
ExplosiveExp #6 #32
PPAPPA #78 #53
PowerPwr #24 #25
SP+SP+ #39 #43
Pts POPPO #86 #14
HavocHav #127 #36
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #68 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #118
Run ExplRExp #28 #10
PPAExp #92 #73
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #78
Stuff RateStuff #44 #84
TackleTak -  #11
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #43 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #44
Pass ExplPExl #18 #87
PPAExp #76 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #98
F7 HavocF7 #122 #37
DB HavocDB #116 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #119
SuccessSuc #64 #133
ExplosiveExp #93 #18
PPAPPA #72 #130
PowerPwr #41 #43
SP+SP+ #89 #84
Pts POPPO #46 #113
HavocHav #68 #134
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #34 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #108
Run ExplRExp #82 #13
PPAExp #63 #80
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #113
Stuff RateStuff #77 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #86 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #134
Pass ExplPExl #48 #48
PPAExp #73 #134
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #132
F7 HavocF7 #56 #133
DB HavocDB #90 #123
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 81° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Florida -9.5 (50.5)
Florida won vs Mississippi State this year (23-21)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Mississippi State last year (23-21)
Florida beat Mississippi State in 2024 (45-28)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004