Mississippi State at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (34 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Florida -5.5   (SP+ FLA -3)

Projected Score: MSST: 21 - FLA: 26 (47)
FLA Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 27 - 13 (36 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-21.549.5
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+5.5
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+11
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+5.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+7
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+6

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+8
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-6
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+7.5
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+2.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-0.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#26 (.36)50% (33)40.356% (18)3.14 (53)17944% (62)2634.94 (33)#32 (.02)38% (57)12.343% (87)32% (29)3.4 (65)84.70.72
FLA#91 (.13)45% (56)2751% (33)3.41 (32)13742% (77)2533.89 (72)#27 (-)32% (18)12.727% (7)38% (55)2.36 (29)53.321
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense340.33449.7%4.940.721441179263550%50%56%44%15%.36
FLA Defense312.7932.1%2.361 - - - - - 51%49%27%38%15%-
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense312.31737.7%3.42 - - - - - 58%42%43%32%18%.02
FLA Offense32735.545.5%3.892233911372534.340%59%51%42%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State323:052155%50%1084.70.7251.3034.5
Florida335:2823.340%100%653.3213.30.3030.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense350% (74)56% (18)36178.759 (17).26 (36)3.14 (53)57% (114)7% (32)0.95 (72)
FLA Defense351% (78)27% (7) - - - - -.21 (6)2.01 (11)63% (43)8% (96)0.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense358% (119)43% (87) - - - - -.02 (41)3.03 (93)58% (32)9% (79)0.75 (25)
FLA Offense340% (125)51% (33)32137.34.31 (127).21 (45)3.41 (32)100% (1)10% (88)0.83 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense350% (64)44% (62)19.729.3262.7913.47 (23)2 (60).46 (33)1.8 (13)29% (59)38% (33).72 (16)8% (120)2.7 (4)
FLA Defense349% (68)38% (55) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (68)1.5 (59)35% (46)20% (27).18 (52)6% (56)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense342% (18)32% (29) - - - - - - 4 (12).09 (34)1.5 (63)32% (84)21% (30).07 (27)9% (16)2 (66)
FLA Offense359% (12)42% (77)27.739.3253.36.49.27 (23)6 (132).13 (107)1.4 (106)30% (60)31% (72).12 (114)6% (92)1.8 (93)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 20.59   Florida: 20.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.7   Florida: 11.6




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Florida's Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 26
Mississippi State 21


Total Points: 47

Florida Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 12.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 9

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Mississippi State28Florida45FloridaFlorida -6.5Florida58.0Over
201809/29Mississippi State6Florida13FloridaMississippi State -6.5Florida49.5Under
201010/16Florida7Mississippi State10Mississippi State
200910/24Mississippi State19Florida29Florida
200510/08Florida35Mississippi State9Florida
200410/23Mississippi State38Florida31Mississippi State
200109/29Florida52Mississippi State0Florida
200009/29Mississippi State47Florida35Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida521 Overs
Mississippi State301 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 40 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams4 - 42 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#28) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Mississippi State has lost 3 straight
Mississippi State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated

Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFLAMSST
OverallOver#19#38
OffenseOff#44#46
DefenseDef#15#38
Special TeamsST#61#84
PassingPass#50#28
RushingRush#76#13
Run BlockRBLK#22#79
Pass BlockPBLK#4#46
Route RunningWR Rt#57#65
TacklingTkl#14#39
Run DefenseR Def#3#36
Pass Rush DefPRush#80#75
Coverage DefCov#35#20

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Mississippi State last year (45-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | FLA
Depth Chart: MSST | FLA
Rosters: MSST | FLA
(#18) Florida Info
Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Great Run Def Success 27%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida has lost 5 straight
Florida has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida Notes
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way
(8/13) Lagway health an issue, missing camp w/ others.
(6/30) DT Banks game wrecker, top 10 PFF w/ DE Sapp
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF

Florida Highlights
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida defense is really good in red zone (#29)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida Defensive Line is very good (#11)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Florida throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Florida offense is not Explosive (#103)
Florida does not Sack the QB (#130)


  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen558168%722628.9
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)2450%20005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)3017045.725
Davon Booth2712614.716
Xavier Gayten450112.525
Johnnie Daniels94404.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)15278318.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)17210212.448
Jordan Mosley394131.375
Seydou Traore577115.455

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith180001
Nic Mitchell180000
Derion Gullette (Tr)160000
Jahron Manning (Tr)140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Deonte Anderson51100
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)51111
Joseph Head Jr.30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones90003
DeAgo Brumfeld81003
Isaac Smith180001

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway7110071%629566.3
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh3724316.626
Ja'Kobi Jackson205903.013
D.J. Lagway183101.710
Anthony Rubio52705.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III16197012.341
Hayden Hansen1311719.028
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)771110.118
Eugene Wilson146624.732

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham172022
Jaden Robinson132001
Brendan Bett (Tr)121010
George Gumbs103020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp82100
Myles Graham172022
Titus Bullard10000
Javion Toombs20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton90013
Myles Graham172022
Devin Moore60002