Arizona at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -9 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Mississippi State 31 - Arizona: 24

 
Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 35 - 21 (37 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona -10.5   (SP+ ARIZ -12.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 34 - MSST: 24 (58)
MSST Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ARIZ Travel: 1287 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (25 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arizona's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arizona vs Northern Arizona-28.561.0W 38 - 3UY
Sat 9/9 Arizona at Mississippi State+9.060.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 9/16 Arizona vs UTEP-18.057.0W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/23 Arizona at Stanford-13.060.0W 21 - 20UN
Sat 9/30 Arizona vs Washington+20.066.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 10/7 Arizona at USC+21.069.5L 41 - 43OY
Sat 10/14 Arizona at Washington State+7.557.5W 44 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Arizona vs Oregon State+3.057.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 Arizona vs UCLA+2.550.0W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Arizona at Colorado-6.055.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 11/18 Arizona vs Utah-2.545.5W 42 - 18OY
Sat 11/25 Arizona at Arizona State-12.548.5W 59 - 23OY
Thu 12/28 Arizona vs Oklahoma-2.559.5W 38 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#10 (.34)51% (6)34.652% (5)3.26 (40)14050% (10)3084.42 (29)#57 (.16)42% (67)21.143% (71)41% (62)3.37 (29)531.11.4
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)21.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)26.642% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense1334.637.250.6%4.421.1234481403084.643%57%52%50%14%.34
MSST Defense1226.625.142.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense1321.125.741.9%3.371.4 - - - - - 46%53%43%41%17%.16
MSST Offense1221.825.335.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona1330:502349%67%6.3531.11.45.32.4129.9
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense1343% (112)52% (5)30.6139.74.617 (81).21 (34)3.26 (40)74% (68)9% (38)0.9 (109)
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .12 (58)3 (50)75% (82)11% (54)0.97 (51)
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense1357% (20)50% (10)25.535.7308.38.612.136 (5)11 (68).47 (15)1.6 (68)29% (19)41% (6).54 (13)6% (69)2 (103)
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense1353% (115)41% (62) - - - - - - 9 (87).26 (57)1.5 (48)34% (38)32% (95).25 (38)6% (60)2 (36)
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 10.35   Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.1   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.2
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 34
Mississippi State 24


Total Points: 58

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Mississippi State31Arizona24Mississippi StateMississippi State -9Arizona60.0Under
202209/10Arizona17Mississippi State39Mississippi StateMississippi State -11.5Mississippi State57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State210 Overs
Arizona012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#20) Arizona Info
Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90


Arizona has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 5 - 2 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Arizona Highlights
Arizona offense is efficent (#96)
Arizona offense is good in red zone (#118)
Arizona offense is good on 3rd downs
Arizona defense is really good in red zone (#3)
Arizona has a great TO Margin (#28)

Arizona Deficiencies
Arizona Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#87)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMSSTARIZ
OverallOver#62#13
OffenseOff#75#8
DefenseDef#57#48
Special TeamsST#24#51
PassingPass#62#13
RushingRush#44#8
Run BlockRBLK#56#59
Pass BlockPBLK#42#4
Route RunningWR Rt#84#5
TacklingTkl#31#45
Run DefenseR Def#66#40
Pass Rush DefPRush#92#64
Coverage DefCov#41#48

Rematch from Week 2
Mississippi State -9.0 (60.0)
Mississippi State won vs Arizona this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arizona in 2023 (31-24)
Mississippi State beat Arizona in 2022 (39-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARIZ | MSST
Depth Chart: ARIZ | MSST
Rosters: ARIZ | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90


Mississippi State has won 1 straight
Mississippi State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 4 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State offense is really bad (#33)
Mississippi State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#57)
Mississippi State run game is really bad (#18)
Mississippi State pass game is really bad (#62)
Mississippi State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Mississippi State has a bad red zone defense (#65)


  
Arizona's OC Brennan Carroll
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita24133372%28692568.6
Jayden de Laura8912870%11201058.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Coleman12887156.859
D.J. Williams8537254.419
Michael Wiley7031134.424
Rayshon Luke3715314.140
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan9014021015.657
Jacob Cowing89839139.457
Tanner McLachlan45528411.736
Michael Wiley28306510.940

View Arizona's Full Roster
Arizona's DC Johnny Nansen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Manu104107102
Dalton Johnson866211
Gunner Maldonado791001
Ephesians Prysock641007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taylor Upshaw (Tr)3112931
Jacob Manu104107102
Isaiah Ward305471
Russell Davis II176420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tacario Davis2510015
Ephesians Prysock641007
Treydan Stukes554007

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers14223760%16261246.9
Mike Wright (Tr)488557%453335.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks12157344.752
Seth Davis5935616.046
Mike Wright (Tr)7132434.653
Jeffery Pittman5426815.059
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)50658413.265
Zavion Thomas40503112.635
Justin Robinson21257012.230
Jo'quavious Marks2316727.332

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Decamerion Richardson791107
Corey Ellington664202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Jaden Crumedy354322
Corey Ellington664202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Decamerion Richardson791107
Deonte Anderson383114
Shawn Preston Jr.595013