Arizona at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Arizona logo Arizona Wildcats at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -9 (60.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Mississippi State 31 - Arizona: 24

 
Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (18 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona -10.5   (SP+ ARIZ -12.5)

Projected Score: ARIZ: 35 - MSST: 25 (57)
MSST Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ARIZ Travel: 1287 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arizona's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arizona vs Northern Arizona-28.561.0W 38 - 3UY
Sat 9/9 Arizona at Mississippi State+9.060.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 9/16 Arizona vs UTEP-18.057.0W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/23 Arizona at Stanford-13.060.0W 21 - 20UN
Sat 9/30 Arizona vs Washington+20.066.0L 24 - 31UY
Sat 10/7 Arizona at USC+21.069.5L 41 - 43OY
Sat 10/14 Arizona at Washington State+7.557.5W 44 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Arizona vs Oregon State+3.057.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 Arizona vs UCLA+2.550.0W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Arizona at Colorado-6.055.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 11/18 Arizona vs Utah-2.545.5W 42 - 18OY
Sat 11/25 Arizona at Arizona State-12.548.5W 59 - 23OY
Thu 12/28 Arizona vs Oklahoma-2.559.5W 38 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ.2948%21.853%3.3314445%3183.89.3653%31.857%51%4.48501.82.3
MSST.1946%25.845%2.968247%3104.23.0939%34.141%38%3.5360.81.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Offense1221.817.847.7%3.891.8244621443184.941%57%53%45%16%.29
MSST Defense1334.134.939.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARIZ Defense1231.837.453.4%4.482.3 - - - - - 50%50%57%51%13%.36
MSST Offense1325.830.746.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona1228:0324.142%43%5.4501.82.34.61.3027.5
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense1241%53%29.31444.919.223.3367%9%0.96
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense1250%57% - - - - .343.6379%9%1
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense1257%45%23.638.3318.48.313.52613.391.829%36%.497%2.3
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense1250%51% - - - - - - 4.41.425%39%.565%2
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 810.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 10.35   Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.1   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 35
Mississippi State 25


Projected Total Points: 57
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Mississippi State31Arizona24Mississippi StateMississippi State -9Arizona60.0Under
202209/10Arizona17Mississippi State39Mississippi StateMississippi State -11.5Mississippi State57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State210 Overs
Arizona012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#20) Arizona Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41
Talent Rating: 810.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90

Team Profile






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Arizona     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #20
#84
Off #6
#120
Def #53
#85
Talent #27
#31
SP+ #20
#66
SP+ Off #15
#78
SP+ Def #41
#55

Rematch from Week 2
Mississippi State -9.0 (60.0)
Mississippi State won vs Arizona this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arizona in 2023 (31-24)
Mississippi State beat Arizona in 2022 (39-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 80°

Team Information
Injuries: ARIZ | MSST
Depth Chart: ARIZ | MSST
Rosters: ARIZ | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile






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Arizona's OC Brennan Carroll
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tetairoa Mcmillan1250%14007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Coleman1931053105.564
Stevie Rocker2512825.123
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Tr)1505.05
Canyon Moses1000.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan841319815.778
Jonah Coleman2317707.717
Montana Lemonious-Craig (Tr)17172110.120
Stevie Rocker682013.734

View Arizona's Full Roster
Arizona's DC Johnny Nansen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ephesians Prysock450006
Isaiah Ward286322
Marquis Groves-Killebrew261104
Daniel Heimuli (Tr)181010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Kongaika105310
Isaiah Ward286322
Russell Davis II43300
Marquis Groves-Killebrew261104
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ephesians Prysock450006
Marquis Groves-Killebrew261104
Isaiah Ward286322

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers22031171%24581477.9
Mike Wright (Tr)396758%356015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Simeon Price4413603.118
Mike Wright (Tr)178214.820
Zavion Thomas97608.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks4732106.833
Justin Robinson16244315.350
Zavion Thomas2321829.521
Ryland Goede (Tr)670111.725

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Ellington531003
Will James352007
J.P. Purvis350000
Luke Evans311003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Ellington531003
Caleb Bryant40000
Ryland Goede (Tr)10000
Keelan Crimmins10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will James352007
Corey Ellington531003
Luke Evans311003