Arizona at Mississippi State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arizona Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -9 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Mississippi State 31 - Arizona: 24

Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona -10.5 (SP+ ARIZ -12.5)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 35 - MSST: 24 (59)
MSST Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ARIZ Travel: 1287 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-28.5	61.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Arizona at Mississippi State	+9.0	60.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Arizona vs UTEP	-18.0	57.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Arizona at Stanford	-13.0	60.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Arizona vs Washington	+20.0	66.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona at USC	+21.0	69.5	L 41 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arizona at Washington State	+7.5	57.5	W 44 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Arizona vs Oregon State	+3.0	57.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona vs UCLA	+2.5	50.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arizona at Colorado	-6.0	55.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arizona vs Utah	-2.5	45.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arizona at Arizona State	-12.5	48.5	W 59 - 23	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Arizona vs Oklahoma	-2.5	59.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	.29	48%	31.5	53%	3.33	144	45%	318	3.89	.36	53%	19.3	57%	51%	4.48	50	1.8	2.3
MSST	.19	46%	30.4	45%	2.96	82	47%	310	4.23	.09	39%	30.2	41%	38%	3.53	60.8	1.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	12	31.5	29.4	47.7%	3.89	1.8	24	462	144	318	4.9	41%	57%	53%	45%	16%	.29
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	39.2%	3.53	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	41%	38%	18%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	12	19.3	23.6	53.4%	4.48	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	57%	51%	13%	.36
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	46.2%	4.23	1.5	23	393	82	310	3.6	30%	70%	45%	47%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	12	28:03	24.1	42%	43%	5.4	50	1.8	2.3	4.6	1.3	0	27.5
Mississippi State	13	29:58	22.8	39%	52%	6.3	60.8	1.5	1.9	6.4	2.4	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	12	41%	53%	29.3	144	4.9	19	.22	3.33	67%	9%	0.96
MSST Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.79	59%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	57%	-	-	-	-	.34	3.63	79%	9%	1
MSST Offense	13	30%	45%	22.8	82.4	3.6	12	.12	2.96	60%	8%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	12	57%	45%	23.6	38.3	318.4	8.3	13.5	26	13	.39	1.8	29%	36%	.49	7%	2.3
MSST Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.6	34%	28%	.09	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.4	1.4	25%	39%	.56	5%	2
MSST Offense	13	70%	47%	32.8	48.8	310.4	6.4	9.5	36	9	.22	1.2	27%	30%	.31	8%	2

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 687.01 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 10.35 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.1 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 746.29 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 35
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 59

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Mississippi State	31	Arizona	24	Mississippi State -9	Arizona	60.0	Under
2022	09/10	Arizona	17	Mississippi State	39	Mississippi State -11.5	Mississippi State	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	2	1	0 Overs
Arizona	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#20) ARIZ at (#84) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#20	#84
SP+SP+	#20	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#16	#76
OffenseOff	#8	#86
DefenseDef	#56	#71
Spec TeamsST	#63	#24
TalentTal	#42	#28
Blue ChipsBC%	#51	#32

Arizona Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Arizona on Offense


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#6	#85
SP+SP+	#15	#55
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arizona Run Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#8	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#34

Arizona Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#4	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#56
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#120	#53
SP+SP+	#78	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#62	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#51

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#49	#81
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Mississippi State -9.0 (60.0)
Mississippi State won vs Arizona this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arizona in 2023 (31-24)

ARIZ's OC Brennan Carroll (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	241	333	72%	2869	25	6	8.6
Jayden de Laura	89	128	70%	1120	10	5	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman	128	871	5	6.8	59
D.J. Williams	85	372	5	4.4	19
Michael Wiley	70	311	3	4.4	24
Rayshon Luke	37	153	1	4.1	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	90	1402	10	15.6	57
Jacob Cowing	89	839	13	9.4	57
Tanner McLachlan	45	528	4	11.7	36
Michael Wiley	28	306	5	10.9	40

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Johnny Nansen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Dalton Johnson	86	6	2	1	1
Gunner Maldonado	79	1	0	0	1
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Upshaw (Tr)	31	12	9	3	1
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Isaiah Ward	30	5	4	7	1
Russell Davis II	17	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tacario Davis	25	1	15
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	7
Treydan Stukes	55	4	7

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3