Bowling Green at Mississippi State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 24th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -31 (53.0)
Mississippi State 45 - Bowling Green: 14

Falcons (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Scot Loeffler (7 - 22)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST is playing their 4th straight game
BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -19.5 (SP+ MSST -34)
Projected Score: BGSU: 26 - MSST: 29 (55)
MSST Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
BGSU Travel: 616 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Mike Leach (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Bowling Green at UCLA	+24.0	56.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/10	Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky	-7.5	57.0	L 57 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/17	Bowling Green vs Marshall	+17.0	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Bowling Green at Mississippi State	+31.0	53.0	L 14 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Bowling Green at Akron	-9.0	49.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/8	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	+2.0	55.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/15	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	+5.5	51.0	W 34 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-5.0	48.0	W 13 - 9	U	N
Wed 11/9	Bowling Green vs Kent State	+2.5	55.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Tue 11/15	Bowling Green at Toledo	+14.5	47.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Tue 11/22	Bowling Green at Ohio	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 38	U	N
Mon 12/26	Bowling Green vs New Mexico State	-3.0	51.0	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	.08	36%	20.5	37%	2.53	102	36%	215	3.6	.17	43%	24.3	48%	35%	4.2	71.1	1.4	1.5
MSST	.24	50%	30.4	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	30.2	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	24	36.2%	3.6	1.4	16	317	102	215	3.3	41%	59%	37%	36%	22%	.08
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	29	42.8%	4.2	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	48%	35%	17%	.17
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	12	29:39	15.6	34%	33%	8	71.1	1.4	1.5	6.8	2.3	1	30.4
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	12	41%	37%	30.8	102.3	3.3	15	.06	2.53	63%	14%	1.01
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	12	60%	48%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.47	88%	12%	0.88
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	12	59%	36%	19.8	33.9	214.8	6.3	10.8	12	9	.12	1.4	38%	26%	.23	8%	2.1
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	12	39%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	29%	21%	.13	5%	2
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Bowling Green's 2022 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.1 #123
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #88
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #127

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: Mississippi State: 10.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -18.1 Mississippi State: 15.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.2 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 29
Bowling Green 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/24	Mississippi State	45	Bowling Green	14	Mississippi State -31	Push	53.0	Over
2013	10/12	Mississippi State	21	Bowling Green	20	Mississippi State -8.5	Bowling Green	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	2	0	1 Overs
Bowling Green	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) BGSU at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#123	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#73
OffenseOff	#101	#78
DefenseDef	#63	#66
Spec TeamsST	#97	#1
TalentTal	#108	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Bowling Green Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#66
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#88	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#97	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#104

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Mississippi State -31.0 (53.0)
Mississippi State won vs Bowling Green this year (45-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

BGSU's OC Terry Malone (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Eric Lewis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD