Virginia at North Carolina Game Matchup
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -24 (58.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Virginia 31 - North Carolina: 27  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 3rd straight Home Game
UVA coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -20   (SP+ UNC -21)
Projected Score: UVA: 20 - UNC: 40 (55)
UNC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
UVA Travel: 150 miles
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Virginia vs Tennessee+27.556.0L 13 - 49ON
Sat 9/9 Virginia vs James Madison+6.040.0L 35 - 36OY
Fri 9/15 Virginia at Maryland+16.548.5L 14 - 42ON
Fri 9/22 Virginia vs NC State+8.547.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 9/30 Virginia at Boston College+5.052.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/7 Virginia vs William & Mary-10.042.0W 27 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Virginia at North Carolina+24.058.0W 31 - 27UY
Sat 10/28 Virginia at Miami+18.548.0L 26 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Virginia vs Georgia Tech-2.057.5L 17 - 45ON
Thu 11/9 Virginia at Louisville+20.549.5L 24 - 31OY
Sat 11/18 Virginia vs Duke+4.048.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/25 Virginia vs Virginia Tech+2.552.5L 17 - 55ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA.0840%22.744%3.212337%2212.81.1341%28.840%41%3.5462.22.21.7
UNC.346%30.945%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%28.149%48%4.5155.311.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1022.726.739.7%2.812.2193441232213.745%54%44%37%22%.08
UNC Defense1428.133.448.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1028.832.240.8%3.541.7 - - - - - 51%49%40%41%15%.13
UNC Offense1430.93646.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1027:301932%39%762.22.21.75.13028.2
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1045%44%32.91233.713.173.272%12%1.01
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1051%40% - - - - .083.2667%9%0.87
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1054%37%18.534.22216.512712.041.536%33%.4210%2
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1049%41% - - - - - - 5.191.430%29%.316%2
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 40
Virginia 20

Projected Total Points: 55
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41North CarolinaVirginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31VirginiaNorth Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41VirginiaNorth Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38VirginiaVirginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21VirginiaVirginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20VirginiaVirginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North CarolinaNorth Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North CarolinaNorth Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28North CarolinaVirginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North CarolinaNorth Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37North Carolina
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17North Carolina
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44North Carolina
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16Virginia
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13Virginia
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22Virginia
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0Virginia
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5North Carolina
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24Virginia
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38Virginia
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27Virginia
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24North Carolina
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1263 Overs
Virginia1365 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 64 - 32 - 3
Road Teams12 - 136 - 63 - 23 - 4

(#93) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30

Team Profile






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Virginia     Ratings Matchup     North Carolina
Power #93
#25
Off #84
#20
Def #114
#81
Talent #60
#16
SP+ #106
#27
SP+ Off #95
#13
SP+ Def #99
#71

Rematch from Week 8
North Carolina -24.0 (58.0)
Virginia won at North Carolina this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 57° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: UVA | UNC
Depth Chart: UVA | UNC
Rosters: UVA | UNC
(#25) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.335 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile






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Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tony Muskett (Tr)457659%545337.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)11449934.443
Tony Muskett (Tr)279843.618
Donte Hawthorne112012.012
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)2118909.052
Demick Starling356018.727
Sackett Wood Jr.31816.08
Donte Hawthorne1202.02

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker989214
Antonio Clary483113
Kameron Butler433382
Chico Bennett Jr.398150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Butler433382
Jonas Sanker989214
Antonio Clary483113
Chico Bennett Jr.398150
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker989214
Antonio Clary483113
Kameron Butler433382

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tad Hudson172665%173206.7
Jefferson Boaz2540%24004.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2811660155.975
George Pettaway16397656.031
Elijah Green2920156.951
D.J. Jones5716202.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones36582616.253
John Copenhaver40414410.435
Omarion Hampton3837329.849
Kamari Morales28325611.654

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Lane (Tr)744102
Power Echols732126
Jahvaree Ritzie385551
Kevin Hester Jr.374430
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker308631
Desmond Evans3410591
Jahvaree Ritzie385551
Kevin Hester Jr.374430
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)364218
Power Echols732126
Tayon Holloway162105