Virginia at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -24 (58.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Virginia 31 - North Carolina: 27 (ACC)

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 3rd straight Home Game
UVA coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -20 (SP+ UNC -21)
Projected Score: UVA: 17 - UNC: 37 (54)
UNC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
UVA Travel: 150 miles

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.08	40%	30.8	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	19.6	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7
UNC	.3	46%	19.3	45%	3.18	153	47%	309	4.47	.29	48%	24.5	49%	48%	4.51	55.3	1	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	30.8	28.6	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08
UNC Defense	14	24.5	26	48.3%	4.51	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	48%	12%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	19.6	23.2	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13
UNC Offense	14	19.3	21	46.2%	4.47	1	25	463	153	309	4.2	45%	55%	45%	47%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2
North Carolina	14	29:55	24.6	46%	71%	6.1	55.3	1	1.1	3.4	1.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01
UNC Defense	14	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.25	79%	6%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87
UNC Offense	14	45%	45%	36.4	153.4	4.2	24	.18	3.18	72%	10%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2
UNC Defense	14	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.41	1.6	28%	31%	.4	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2
UNC Offense	14	55%	47%	24.6	37.5	309.3	8.3	12.6	38	7	.41	1.6	32%	40%	.5	4%	1.9

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 622.70 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47 North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3 North Carolina: 10.2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 37
Virginia 17

Projected Total Points: 54

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	North Carolina	16	Virginia	17	Virginia -12.5	North Carolina	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	Virginia	14	North Carolina	41	Virginia -3.5	North Carolina	58.5	Under
2023	10/21	North Carolina	27	Virginia	31	North Carolina -24	Virginia	58.0	Push
2022	11/05	Virginia	28	North Carolina	31	North Carolina -7	Virginia	61.5	Under
2021	09/18	North Carolina	59	Virginia	39	North Carolina -7.5	North Carolina	67.0	Over
2020	10/31	Virginia	44	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7.0	Virginia	0
2019	11/02	North Carolina	31	Virginia	38	Virginia -1	Virginia	48.0	Over
2018	10/27	Virginia	31	North Carolina	21	Virginia -7.5	Virginia	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	North Carolina	14	Virginia	20	Virginia -3	Virginia	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Virginia	14	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -9	North Carolina	68.5	Under
2015	10/24	North Carolina	26	Virginia	13	North Carolina -12	North Carolina	58.0	Under
2014	10/25	Virginia	27	North Carolina	28	Virginia -7.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/09	North Carolina	45	Virginia	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	0
2012	11/15	Virginia	13	North Carolina	37
2011	09/17	North Carolina	28	Virginia	17
2010	10/16	Virginia	10	North Carolina	44
2009	10/03	North Carolina	3	Virginia	16
2008	10/18	Virginia	16	North Carolina	13
2007	09/15	North Carolina	20	Virginia	22
2006	10/19	Virginia	23	North Carolina	0
2005	10/22	North Carolina	7	Virginia	5
2004	09/11	Virginia	56	North Carolina	24
2003	10/04	North Carolina	13	Virginia	38
2002	10/19	Virginia	37	North Carolina	27
2001	10/13	North Carolina	30	Virginia	24
2000	10/27	Virginia	17	North Carolina	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	12	7	3 Overs
Virginia	14	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#93) UVA at (#25) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#25
SP+SP+	#106	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#35
OffenseOff	#97	#34
DefenseDef	#128	#47
Spec TeamsST	#112	#119
TalentTal	#66	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#18

Virginia Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#47
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#84	#81
SP+SP+	#95	#71
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#115	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#54

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#41
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#34	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#20	#114
SP+SP+	#13	#99
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#26	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
North Carolina -24.0 (58.0)
Virginia won at North Carolina this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat North Carolina last year (17-16)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2024 (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drake Maye	269	425	63%	3608	24	9	8.5
Conner Harrell	22	33	67%	270	2	2	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	253	1504	15	5.9	68
Drake Maye	112	449	9	4.0	56
British Brooks	74	375	2	5.1	53
Conner Harrell	22	75	1	3.4	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	46	711	3	15.5	57
Devontez Walker (Tr)	41	699	7	17.0	56
Bryson Nesbit	41	585	5	14.3	62
Nate Mccollum (Tr)	44	469	1	10.7	48

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Power Echols	102	6	0	4	1
Don Chapman	64	5	1	2	1
Antavious Lane (Tr)	62	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaimon Rucker	61	15	9	12	1
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Beau Atkinson	19	5	4	3	0
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Allen	49	1	0	0	8
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)	42	1	0	1	6
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5