Virginia at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -24 (58.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Virginia 31 - North Carolina: 27  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (24 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 3rd straight Home Game
UVA coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -20   (SP+ UNC -21)

Projected Score: UVA: 19 - UNC: 39 (59)
UNC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
UVA Travel: 150 miles
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (41 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Virginia vs Tennessee+27.556.0L 13 - 49ON
Sat 9/9 Virginia vs James Madison+6.040.0L 35 - 36OY
Fri 9/15 Virginia at Maryland+16.548.5L 14 - 42ON
Fri 9/22 Virginia vs NC State+8.547.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 9/30 Virginia at Boston College+5.052.5L 24 - 27UY
Sat 10/7 Virginia vs William & Mary-10.042.0W 27 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Virginia at North Carolina+24.058.0W 31 - 27UY
Sat 10/28 Virginia at Miami+18.548.0L 26 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Virginia vs Georgia Tech-2.057.5L 17 - 45ON
Thu 11/9 Virginia at Louisville+20.549.5L 24 - 31OY
Sat 11/18 Virginia vs Duke+4.048.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/25 Virginia vs Virginia Tech+2.552.5L 17 - 55ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#88 (.15)41% (84)23.342% (82)3 (89)11841% (76)2513.68 (85)#117 (.26)45% (113)33.848% (118)43% (90)4.15 (103)55.31.71.2
UNC#17 (.3)47% (19)34.550% (16)3.41 (11)19344% (44)2994.13 (45)#86 (.21)42% (70)27.343% (68)42% (76)3.41 (35)66.31.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1223.323.841%3.681.7213691182513.149%50%42%41%19%.15
UNC Defense1327.32442.2%3.411.7 - - - - - 50%49%43%42%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1233.831.245.2%4.151.2 - - - - - 51%48%48%43%15%.26
UNC Offense1334.540.746.8%4.131.3254921932995.146%53%50%44%13%.3

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1231:242136%60%6.555.31.71.24.80.9128.1
North Carolina1328:3424.549%45%7.266.31.31.75.42.1131.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1249% (76)42% (82)37.8117.93.112 (116).11 (91)3 (89)70% (98)13% (123)0.89 (113)
UNC Defense1350% (70)43% (68) - - - - .2 (100)3.33 (112)73% (68)10% (85)1.02 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1251% (87)48% (118) - - - - .26 (124)3.36 (116)76% (92)9% (108)1.03 (84)
UNC Offense1346% (97)50% (16)38.2193.25.128 (25).28 (9)3.41 (11)75% (52)8% (31)1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1250% (62)41% (76)20.733250.87.612.119 (78)14 (107).29 (67)1.6 (66)32% (83)29% (79).21 (105)6% (79)1.8 (126)
UNC Defense1349% (63)42% (76) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (82)1.6 (64)34% (43)34% (117).38 (100)6% (92)1.9 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1248% (48)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).32 (97)1.6 (54)28% (127)30% (62).33 (76)6% (57)2.1 (85)
UNC Offense1353% (36)44% (44)22.535.4298.58.413.326 (31)11 (68).34 (47)1.6 (73)30% (33)32% (56).38 (55)5% (24)2.2 (21)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 39
Virginia 19


Total Points: 59

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.7
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41North CarolinaVirginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31VirginiaNorth Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41VirginiaNorth Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38VirginiaVirginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21VirginiaVirginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20VirginiaVirginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North CarolinaNorth Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North CarolinaNorth Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28North CarolinaVirginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North CarolinaNorth Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37North Carolina
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17North Carolina
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44North Carolina
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16Virginia
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13Virginia
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22Virginia
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0Virginia
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5North Carolina
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24Virginia
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38Virginia
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27Virginia
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24North Carolina
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1263 Overs
Virginia1365 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 64 - 32 - 3
Road Teams12 - 136 - 63 - 23 - 4

(#93) Virginia Info
Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30


Virginia has won 1 straight
Virginia has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Virginia Highlights

Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia Can Not Run the Ball (#4)
Virginia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Virginia Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Virginia does not Sack the QB (#97)
Virginia has a bad defense (#51)
Virginia has a bad defensive line (#63)
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNCUVA
OverallOver#29#97
OffenseOff#31#83
DefenseDef#39#101
Special TeamsST#96#90
PassingPass#7#45
RushingRush#18#82
Run BlockRBLK#76#61
Pass BlockPBLK#37#116
Route RunningWR Rt#48#46
TacklingTkl#47#83
Run DefenseR Def#51#110
Pass Rush DefPRush#35#94
Coverage DefCov#31#78

Rematch from Week 8
North Carolina -24.0 (58.0)
Virginia won at North Carolina this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | UNC
Depth Chart: UVA | UNC
Rosters: UVA | UNC
(#25) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 12.335 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80


North Carolina has won 6 straight
North Carolina has won 5 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has Really Good Running Game (#93)
North Carolina offense is efficent (#105)
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina offense is good on 3rd downs
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)


North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)


  
Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea15424663%19581398.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)9314763%1031657.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Perris Jones7639325.243
Kobe Pace (Tr)12538213.122
Mike Hollins8027473.422
Anthony Colandrea7322503.130
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Washington1101426913.064
Malachi Fields58811514.039
Kobe Pace (Tr)1917639.375
Sackett Wood Jr.9141015.728

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker10740111
James Jackson804175
Kamren Robinson715141
Coen King603015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Butler225310
Ben Smiley III154211
Paul Akere153140
Kamren Robinson715141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonas Sanker10740111
Dre Walker110005
Coen King603015

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375