North Carolina at App State - 2022 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels at App State Mountaineers  App State logo
Saturday, September 3rd 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
Appalachian State -3 (56.0)
North Carolina 63 - App State: 61

 
Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -0.5  (SP+ UNC -6)
Projected Score: UNC: 24 - APP: 25 (49)
APP Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UNC Travel: 149 miles
Mountaineers (6 - 6) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Shawn Clark (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.055.0W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/3 North Carolina at App State+3.056.0W 63 - 61OY
Sat 9/10 North Carolina at Georgia State-7.064.0W 35 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.555.0L 32 - 45ON
Sat 10/1 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.557.0W 41 - 10UY
Sat 10/8 North Carolina at Miami+4.067.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/15 North Carolina at Duke-7.070.0W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.565.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 11/5 North Carolina at Virginia-7.061.5W 31 - 28UN
Sat 11/12 North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.579.0W 36 - 34UY
Sat 11/19 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.563.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 11/25 North Carolina vs NC State-6.556.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 12/3 North Carolina vs Clemson+7.564.0L 10 - 39UN
Wed 12/28 North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
App State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 App State vs North Carolina-3.056.0L 61 - 63ON
Sat 9/10 App State at Texas A&M+18.054.0W 17 - 14UY
Sat 9/17 App State vs Troy-14.052.0W 32 - 28ON
Sat 9/24 App State vs James Madison-6.057.0L 28 - 32ON
Sat 10/1 App State vs The Citadel-39.054.5W 49 - 0UY
Sat 10/8 App State at Texas State-19.554.5L 24 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/19 App State vs Georgia State-9.560.5W 42 - 17UY
Sat 10/29 App State vs Robert Morris-50.059.5W 42 - 3UN
Thu 11/3 App State at Coastal Carolina-3.065.5L 28 - 35UN
Sat 11/12 App State at Marshall-2.047.5L 21 - 28ON
Sat 11/19 App State vs Old Dominion-16.550.5W 27 - 14UN
Sat 11/26 App State at Georgia Southern-6.566.0L 48 - 51ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.2846%19.351%3.4321341%2564.53.2646%24.549%43%4.2469.21.11.2
APP.2845%24.243%3.1919247%2494.39.137%29.837%37%3.2453.11.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
APP0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1319.317.546.3%4.531.1244682132565.452%48%51%41%17%.28
APP Defense1429.826.737.1%3.241.6 - - - - - 44%56%37%37%21%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1324.52345.9%4.241.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%43%15%.26
APP Offense1424.22744.9%4.391.9234411922494.854%46%43%47%15%.28

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1329:4123.843%58%7.369.21.11.25.52.2028.7
App State1430:5422.636%66%6.153.11.91.67.92.6630.7
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352%51%39.5212.75.430.373.4371%12%1.21
APP Defense1444%37% - - - - .082.4669%14%1.18
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353%49% - - - - .193.2982%9%0.95
APP Offense1454%43%40.5192.24.826.163.1970%9%0.98

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1348%41%18.229.4255.78.714269.221.630%38%.545%2.2
APP Defense1456%37% - - - - - - 15.121.635%27%.177%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346%43% - - - - - - 11.361.730%29%.356%2.1
APP Offense1446%47%18.229.5249.18.413.72912.431.830%29%.336%2.2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8  #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    App State: 3.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 7.8   App State: 1.7




App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 3.35 NR
App State's Offense Rating: NR
App State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
App State's 2022 Expected Record: -
App State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #65
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #42
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
App State 25
North Carolina 24

Projected Total Points: 49
App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09North Carolina40App State34North Carolina -18App State58.0Over
202209/03App State61North Carolina63Appalachian State -3North Carolina56.0Over
201909/21North Carolina31App State34North Carolina -1.5App State58.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
App State123 Overs
North Carolina210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 30 - 30 - 0
Road Teams2 - 13 - 00 - 03 - 0

(#) UNC at (#) APP
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCAPP
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #46 #65
Perf GradeGrade #65 #26
OffenseOff #43 #15
DefenseDef #102 #64
Spec TeamsST #25 #68
TalentTal #16 #94
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffAPP Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #83
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #62 #42
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #117 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #49
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #2 #109
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
App State on Offense
CategoryCatAPP OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #102
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #42 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
App State Run Game
CategoryCat
APP OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #45 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #7 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #20
App State Pass Game
CategoryCatAPP OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #41 #102
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #48 #62
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Down to Top G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
App State -3.0 (56.0)
North Carolina won at App State this year (63-61)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat App State in 2023 (40-34)

  
UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

APP's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Dale Jones (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD