North Carolina at Notre Dame - 2021 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -3.5 (63.0)
Notre Dame 44 - North Carolina: 34 (FBS Independents)

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ND 2nd straight Home Game
UNC coming off BYE
Our Line: -8 (SP+ ND -11)
Projected Score: UNC: 18 - ND: 33 (51)
ND Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 556 miles

Fighting Irish (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (84 - 38)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/5	Notre Dame at Florida State	-7.0	53.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Notre Dame vs Toledo	-16.5	55.0	W 32 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/18	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-7.5	58.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Notre Dame vs Wisconsin	+6.0	43.5	W 41 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Notre Dame vs Cincinnati	+2.5	50.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/9	Notre Dame at Virginia Tech	+1.0	46.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Notre Dame vs USC	-8.0	59.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Notre Dame vs North Carolina	-3.5	63.0	W 44 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Notre Dame vs Navy	-21.0	47.5	W 34 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Notre Dame at Virginia	-7.5	62.5	W 28 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech	-18.0	57.5	W 55 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Notre Dame at Stanford	-20.5	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 1/1	Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State	+1.5	45.5	L 35 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9
ND	.25	47%	42	48%	3.26	211	47%	237	3.84	.13	39%	17.6	39%	40%	2.83	38	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	12	19.3	17.5	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41
ND Defense	12	17.6	18	39.4%	2.83	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	40%	22%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	12	24.5	23	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22
ND Offense	12	42	44.7	47.2%	3.84	0.9	24	449	211	237	5	56%	44%	48%	47%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1
Notre Dame	12	33:49	24.2	49%	65%	4.4	38	0.9	1.4	7.3	2.4	2	29

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19
ND Defense	12	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.43	71%	14%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99
ND Offense	12	56%	48%	42.2	211.4	5	33	.16	3.26	88%	10%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3
ND Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.22	1.6	37%	30%	.34	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1
ND Offense	12	44%	47%	19.3	30.2	237.4	7.9	12.3	15	3	.37	1.6	29%	36%	.42	3%	1.9

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Notre Dame: 11.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 6.4 Notre Dame: 17.4

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 11.2 NR
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Notre Dame's 2021 Expected Record: -
Notre Dame's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #20
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #15

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 33
North Carolina 18

Projected Total Points: 51

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/24	North Carolina	32	Notre Dame	45	North Carolina -2.5	Notre Dame	55.0	Over
2021	10/30	Notre Dame	44	North Carolina	34	Notre Dame -3.5	Notre Dame	63.0	Over
2020	11/27	North Carolina	17	Notre Dame	31	Notre Dame -4.5	Notre Dame	69.5	Under
2017	10/07	North Carolina	10	Notre Dame	33	Notre Dame -13	Notre Dame	63.5	Under
2014	10/11	Notre Dame	50	North Carolina	43	Notre Dame -16	North Carolina	0
2008	10/11	North Carolina	29	Notre Dame	24
2006	11/04	Notre Dame	45	North Carolina	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	6	4	2 Overs
North Carolina	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1

(#) UNC at (#) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	ND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#59	#11
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#12
OffenseOff	#30	#24
DefenseDef	#106	#13
Spec TeamsST	#36	#14
TalentTal	#17	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Notre Dame Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#13
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#15
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#2	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#7

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#52
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Notre Dame on Offense


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#20	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Notre Dame Run Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#51	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Notre Dame Pass Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#15	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Notre Dame -3.5 (63.0)
Notre Dame won vs North Carolina this year (44-34)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ND's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Marcus Freeman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD