North Carolina at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -1 (55.5) (-115) Open: -3.0
Duke 21 - North Carolina: 20 (ACC)

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Duke -5 (SP+ DUKE -1)
Projected Score: UNC: 24 - DUKE: 29 (55)
UNC Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNC Travel: 9 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	30.9	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	28.1	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	26.3	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	24.5	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	30.9	27.2	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	28.1	20.8	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 858.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53 Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Duke: 5.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
North Carolina 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Duke	21	North Carolina	20	Duke	North Carolina -1	Duke	55.5	Under
2023	11/11	North Carolina	47	Duke	45	North Carolina	North Carolina -9.5	Duke	52.5	Over
2022	10/15	Duke	35	North Carolina	38	North Carolina	North Carolina -7	Duke	70.0	Over
2021	10/02	North Carolina	38	Duke	7	North Carolina	North Carolina -19.5	North Carolina	74.0	Under
2020	11/07	Duke	24	North Carolina	56	North Carolina	North Carolina -11.5	North Carolina	63.0	Over
2019	10/26	North Carolina	20	Duke	17	North Carolina	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	52.5	Under
2018	11/10	Duke	42	North Carolina	35	Duke	Duke -7.5	North Carolina	58.5	Over
2017	09/23	North Carolina	17	Duke	27	Duke	North Carolina -1.5	Duke	61.0	Under
2016	11/10	Duke	28	North Carolina	27	Duke	North Carolina -10.5	Duke	66.5	Under
2015	11/07	North Carolina	66	Duke	31	North Carolina	North Carolina -8	North Carolina	59.5	Over
2014	11/20	Duke	20	North Carolina	45	North Carolina	Duke -6	North Carolina	0
2013	11/30	North Carolina	25	Duke	27	Duke	North Carolina -5.5	Duke	0
2012	10/20	Duke	33	North Carolina	30	Duke
2011	11/26	North Carolina	37	Duke	21	North Carolina
2010	11/27	Duke	19	North Carolina	24	North Carolina
2009	11/07	North Carolina	19	Duke	6	North Carolina
2008	11/29	Duke	20	North Carolina	28	North Carolina
2007	11/24	North Carolina	20	Duke	14	North Carolina
2006	11/25	Duke	44	North Carolina	45	North Carolina
2005	11/19	North Carolina	24	Duke	21	North Carolina
2004	11/20	Duke	17	North Carolina	40	North Carolina
2003	11/22	North Carolina	22	Duke	30	Duke
2001	11/17	North Carolina	52	Duke	17	North Carolina
2000	11/17	Duke	21	North Carolina	59	North Carolina

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	7	6	5 Overs
North Carolina	17	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	6 - 6	3 - 5	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 13	6 - 6	1 - 3	5 - 3

(#68) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.53 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 858.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?

North Carolina Ratings Matchup Duke

Power #68

#50

Off #86

#113

Def #77

#17

Talent #18

#56

SP+ #49

#44

SP+ Off #38

#71

SP+ Def #64

#31

Rematch from Week 5
North Carolina 1.0 (55.5)
Duke won vs North Carolina this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2022 (38-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 85° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | DUKE
Depth Chart: UNC | DUKE
Rosters: UNC | DUKE

(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45
Caleb Hood	18	81	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36
Christian Hamilton	7	159	1	22.7	58
Chris Culliver	6	135	1	22.5	50
Jordan Shipp	9	114	1	12.7	22

View North Carolina's Full Roster

North Carolina's DC Geoff Collins

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Joshua Harris (Tr)	20	1	1	0	0
Cade Law	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	4
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	4
Marcus Allen	29	1	0	3

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65
Star Thomas (Tr)	20	153	1	7.7	29
Javon Harvey (Tr)	11	101	1	9.2	16

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Tre Freeman	67	4	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3
Aaron Hall	43	9	4	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Kimari Robinson	23	5	0	1	4