North Carolina at Charlotte Game Matchup
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Charlotte 49ersCharlotte logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Jerry Richardson Stadium - Charlotte, NC

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
CHAR 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -19.5   (SP+ UNC -21.5)
Projected Score: UNC: 38 - CHAR: 18 (59)
UNC Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
UNC Travel: 104 miles
49ers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.5 - 9.5 (#134)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 7)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU-1.557.5
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-19.5
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-25.5
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+21
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California-1.5
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia-4.5
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+6
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-10
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest-6.5
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+1.5
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Charlotte vs App State+8.50.0
Sat 9/6 Charlotte vs North Carolina+19.5
Sat 9/13 Charlotte vs Monmouth-3
Thu 9/18 Charlotte vs Rice+1
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 Charlotte at South Florida+23.5
Sat 10/11 Charlotte at Army+19.5
Sat 10/18 Charlotte vs Temple-0.5
Fri 10/24 Charlotte vs North Texas+10
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Charlotte at East Carolina+15.5
Sat 11/15 Charlotte vs UTSA+18.5
Sat 11/22 Charlotte at Georgia+50.5
Sat 11/29 Charlotte at Tulane+26.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
CHAR#116 (.1)37% (122)23.739% (110)2.75 (113)11935% (120)2243.9 (70)#113 (.25)45% (107)35.148% (111)42% (83)3.87 (81)65.31.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CHAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
CHAR Defense1235.133.345.3%3.871 - - - - - 56%44%48%42%15%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
CHAR Offense1223.724.237.1%3.91.8173431192243.747%52%39%35%17%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Charlotte1228:3717.330%42%7.865.31.814.91.2126.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
CHAR Defense1256% (118)48% (111) - - - - .19 (104)3.27 (106)68% (35)8% (114)0.96 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
CHAR Offense1247% (88)39% (110)32.3118.73.716 (90).09 (93)2.75 (113)68% (105)11% (106)1.1 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
CHAR Defense1244% (18)42% (83) - - - - - - 10 (66).34 (112)1.8 (122)31% (92)33% (107).57 (132)6% (51)2.4 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
CHAR Offense1252% (46)35% (120)14.829.4224.17.615.216 (87)14 (115).12 (120)1.9 (6)35% (123)29% (96).23 (103)6% (57)2.3 (3)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.77 #62
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 1.77   Charlotte: -17.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.0   Charlotte: -19.4




Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -17.79 #129
Charlotte's Offense Rating: 1.99 #130
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 23.17 #110
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
Charlotte's 2025 Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5
Charlotte's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.4 #133
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #128

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 38
Charlotte 18

Projected Total Points: 59
Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Charlotte's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07North Carolina38Charlotte20North CarolinaNorth Carolina -21.5Charlotte47.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Charlotte011 Overs
North Carolina100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#62) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.77 #62
Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74
Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


North Carolina Notes
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9
North Carolina     Ratings Matchup     Charlotte
Power #62
#129
Off #61
#130
Def #62
#110
Talent #35
#117
SP+ #54
#133
SP+ Off #39
#120
SP+ Def #74
#128

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Charlotte last year (38-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jerry Richardson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | CHAR
Depth Chart: UNC | CHAR
Rosters: UNC | CHAR
(#129) Charlotte Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -17.79 #129
Offense Rating: 1.99 #130
Defense Rating: 23.17 #110
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.4 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #128
Talent Rating: 454.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
Expected Record: 2.5 - 9.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.9 PPO
Poor Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Charlotte Notes
(3/24) QB Connor Harrell (NC) or G Loftis (Duke)
(3/24) RB rebuild. Chaney (Lou) added, depth?
(3/24) WR complete rebuild. 5 portals.
(3/24) OL rebuild 1/5 back. Only 1 portal add?


  
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Davion Gause6732644.921
Charleston French108418.445
Caleb Hood188104.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Paysour21365017.436
Aziah Johnson (Tr)16276217.352
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)496133
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pryce Yates (Tr)217451
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)83210
C.J. Mims (Tr)214100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House (Tr)331014

Charlotte's OC Todd Fitch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Harrell (Tr)213757%282217.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)5017833.627
Henry Rutledge117206.533
Conner Harrell (Tr)165513.416
Rod Gainey Jr.103403.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Rutledge108218.228
Miles Burris264032.048
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)76208.919
Justin Olson235017.525

View Charlotte's Full Roster
Charlotte's DC Nate Faanes
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shay Taylor (Tr)7411434
Reid Williford746222
Al-Ma'Hi Ali451037
Treyveon McGee332001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shay Taylor (Tr)7411434
Reid Williford746222
Donovan Spellman32100
Ja'Qurious Conley262110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Al-Ma'Hi Ali451037
Shay Taylor (Tr)7411434
Thailand Baldwin (Tr)233003