North Carolina at Charlotte - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Charlotte 49ersCharlotte logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -16.5 (49.5) (-800)  Open: -16.5 | 47.5
North Carolina 20 - Charlotte: 3

 
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
CHAR 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -16  (SP+ UNC -18)

Projected Score: UNC: 34 - CHAR: 18 (52)
UNC Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
UNC Travel: 104 miles
49ers (1 - 11) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 36 (17 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Charlotte vs App State+8.553.5L 11 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Charlotte vs North Carolina+16.549.5L 3 - 20UN
Sat 9/13 Charlotte vs Monmouth-3.066.5W 42 - 35OY
Thu 9/18 Charlotte vs Rice+1.541.5L 17 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 Charlotte at South Florida+28.554.5L 26 - 54OY
Sat 10/11 Charlotte at Army+17.545.5L 7 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Charlotte vs Temple+10.047.5L 14 - 49ON
Fri 10/24 Charlotte vs North Texas+25.560.5L 20 - 54ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Charlotte at East Carolina+29.556.5L 22 - 48OY
Sat 11/15 Charlotte vs UTSA+16.557.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Charlotte at Georgia+42.553.5L 3 - 35UY
Sat 11/29 Charlotte at Tulane+31.552.5L 0 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (114)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (62)62.61.31
CHAR#136 (-.01)34% (133)14.334% (134)2.13 (135)8235% (123)2042.73 (131)#124 (.26)54% (136)36.355% (136)53% (135)4.16 (114)50.81.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
CHAR#116 (.1)37% (122)39% (110)2.75 (113)11935% (120)2243.9 (70)#113 (.25)45% (107)48% (111)42% (83)3.87 (81)65.31.81



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
CHAR Defense1236.335.753.9%4.161.3 - - - - - 51%47%55%53%11%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
CHAR Offense1214.317.234.2%2.731.916286822042.744%54%34%35%19%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Charlotte1228:0615.635%46%6.150.81.91.341.2127.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
CHAR Defense1251% (87)55% (136) - - - - .22 (129)3.33 (130)81% (124)7% (129)0.86 (20)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (38)89% (134)10% (69)0.99 (90)
CHAR Offense1244% (114)34% (134)30.381.82.75 (122)-.15 (136)2.13 (135)61% (125)12% (121)0.66 (136)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (56)1.8 (130)
CHAR Defense1247% (59)53% (135) - - - - - - 7 (123).34 (112)1.3 (4)24% (136)35% (127).42 (119)4% (135)2 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (102)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (50)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
CHAR Offense1254% (24)35% (123)18.831.62046.510.914 (86)13 (108).13 (118)1.8 (10)35% (125)25% (122).12 (129)7% (99)1.9 (110)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -2.61  #79
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.36  #96
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 6.97  #61
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1  #97
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.3  #125
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9  #62

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -2.61   Charlotte: -21.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -8.1   Charlotte: -26.2




Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -21.54  #135
Charlotte's Offense Rating: -0.08  #129
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 21.80  #132
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Charlotte's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Charlotte's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.2  #134
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.7  #132
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #133

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 34
Charlotte 18


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Charlotte 33
North Carolina 31

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 27
Charlotte 20

Total Points: 47
Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.2
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.7

Charlotte's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Charlotte3North Carolina20North Carolina -16.5North Carolina49.5Under
202409/07North Carolina38Charlotte20North Carolina -21.5Charlotte47.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Charlotte011 Overs
North Carolina211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#79) UNC at (#135) CHAR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCCHAR
Power RatePwr #79 #135
SP+SP+ #97 #134
Perf GradeGrade #81 #132
OffenseOff #108 #111
DefenseDef #36 #133
Spec TeamsST #71 #123
TalentTal #17 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #65
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
Charlotte Notes
(10/19) Team is awful, Off is bad but Def is worse.
(10/4) QB1 is now Zach Wilcke, played OK in USF blowout
(10/4) Off is still really bad, can't run. 3 QBs thru wk 6
(10/2) QB1 Connor Harrell out for season (knee), Loftis QB1
(9/18) WR E. Jai Mason a baller to watch. QB meh
(9/18) Run Off awful, Run Def bad. Not much hope
(9/18) Tim Albin very good coach but roster is bad
(8/30) QB Harrell bad, Run game putrid vs App St
(8/30) Def torched for 580+ vs App St, Pass D worse?
(3/24) QB Connor Harrell (NC) or G Loftis (Duke)
(3/24) RB rebuild. Chaney (Lou) added, depth?
(3/24) WR complete rebuild. 5 portals.
Charlotte Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCHAR Def
Perf GradePerf #108 #133
SuccessSuc #114 #136
ExplosiveExp #120 #3
PPAPPA #119 #124
PowerPwr #96 #132
SP+SP+ #125 #133
Pts POPPO #108 #114
HavocHav #94 #134
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCHAR Def
Run GameRun #122 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #136
Run ExplRExp #127 #20
PPAExp #130 #129
Run BlockR Blk #84 -
OL YdsOLY #110 #130
Stuff RateStuff #66 #132
TackleTak -  #127
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffCHAR Def
Pass GamePass #102 #130
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #135
Pass ExplPExl #103 #4
PPAExp #92 #112
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #53 #131
F7 HavocF7 #111 #129
DB HavocDB #56 #135
Charlotte on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCHAR OffUNC Def
Perf GradePerf #111 #36
SuccessSuc #133 #60
ExplosiveExp #49 #63
PPAPPA #136 #78
PowerPwr #129 #61
SP+SP+ #132 #62
Pts POPPO #131 #62
HavocHav #120 #91
Charlotte Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CHAR OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #136 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #134 #64
Run ExplRExp #136 #90
PPAExp #136 #91
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #135 #38
Stuff RateStuff #127 #100
TackleTak -  #54
Charlotte Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCHAR OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #87 #69
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #50
Pass ExplPExl #10 #17
PPAExp #118 #50
Pass Block/RushP Blk #123 #36
F7 HavocF7 #121 #69
DB HavocDB #99 #90
Program Comparison
CHAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jerry Richardson Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78°
Rematch from Week 2
North Carolina 16.5 (49.5)
North Carolina won at Charlotte this year (20-3)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Charlotte last year (38-20)

  
UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005

CHAR's OC Todd Fitch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Grayson Loftis (Tr)12823255%1415886.1
Conner Harrell (Tr)649667%737427.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rod Gainey Jr.7426013.537
Cameren Smith (Tr)6222003.513
Jariel Cobb (Tr)5119003.721
C.J. Stokes4814913.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)60740512.364
Sean Brown36508114.146
E. Jai Mason31423413.662
Miles Burris1413409.618

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Nate Faanes (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Kadin Schmitz (Tr)651032
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Curtis Simpson (Tr)315341
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
Yamil Talib284251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thailand Baldwin (Tr)200004
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Derrick Edwards191002