Pittsburgh at North Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview

Pittsburgh Panthers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (63.0) (-135) Open: 0.0
Pittsburgh 34 - North Carolina: 24 (ACC)

Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PITT coming off BYE
UNC is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -1 (SP+ UNC -0)
Projected Score: PITT: 28 - UNC: 29 (57)
PITT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
PITT Travel: 318 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PITT Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Pittsburgh vs Kent State	-23.5	55.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	-2.5	62.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	Pittsburgh vs West Virginia	+2.5	60.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State	-29.5	59.5	W 73 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Pittsburgh at North Carolina	-2.5	63.0	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Pittsburgh vs California	-3.5	57.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-5.0	62.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Pittsburgh at SMU	+7.0	55.5	L 25 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/9	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-7.5	56.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	+12.0	52.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Pittsburgh at Louisville	+7.0	57.0	L 9 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/30	Pittsburgh at Boston College	+3.5	50.5	L 23 - 34	O	N
Thu 12/26	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT	#119 (.09)	38% (113)	33.7	41% (90)	2.86 (109)	102	35% (117)	216	3.46 (98)	#23 (.11)	39% (39)	24.8	39% (32)	41% (67)	3.41 (33)	64.4	1.8	1.3
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	19.3	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	24.5	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Offense	12	33.7	33	37.7%	3.46	1.8	16	318	102	216	3.4	45%	54%	41%	35%	19%	.09
UNC Defense	13	24.5	26	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Defense	12	24.8	24.6	39.4%	3.41	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	39%	41%	18%	.11
UNC Offense	13	19.3	21	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Pittsburgh	12	27:36	16.3	31%	50%	7.8	64.4	1.8	1.3	6.9	2.5	2	26.7
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Offense	12	45% (100)	41% (90)	29.7	101.9	3.4	10 (124)	.06 (118)	2.86 (109)	75% (52)	11% (94)	0.89 (117)
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Defense	12	58% (131)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.03 (17)	2.91 (37)	62% (16)	12% (18)	0.98 (57)
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Offense	12	54% (34)	35% (117)	16	30	216	7.2	13.5	17 (85)	12 (85)	.16 (109)	1.7 (36)	34% (103)	24% (122)	.17 (114)	8% (123)	2.2 (26)
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Defense	12	41% (3)	41% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.27 (67)	1.7 (103)	32% (58)	30% (75)	.29 (58)	6% (85)	2.2 (111)
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 387.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 1.93 North Carolina: 4.235

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 4.9 North Carolina: 5.0

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.235 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 460.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 29
Pittsburgh 28

Projected Total Points: 57

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	North Carolina	24	Pittsburgh	34	Pittsburgh -2.5	Pittsburgh	63.0	Under
2023	09/23	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7	North Carolina	49.5	Over
2022	10/29	North Carolina	42	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	65.5	Over
2021	11/11	Pittsburgh	30	North Carolina	23	Pittsburgh -6.5	Pittsburgh	72.0	Under
2019	11/14	Pittsburgh	34	North Carolina	27	Pittsburgh -4	Pittsburgh	49.0	Over
2018	09/22	North Carolina	38	Pittsburgh	35	Pittsburgh -3	North Carolina	48.0	Over
2017	11/09	Pittsburgh	31	North Carolina	34	Pittsburgh -10	North Carolina	50.5	Over
2016	09/24	North Carolina	37	Pittsburgh	36	North Carolina -7	Pittsburgh	67.0	Over
2015	10/29	Pittsburgh	19	North Carolina	26	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	59.0	Under
2014	11/15	North Carolina	40	Pittsburgh	35	North Carolina -1.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/16	Pittsburgh	27	North Carolina	34	North Carolina -1	North Carolina	53.0	Over
2009	12/26	North Carolina	17	Pittsburgh	19
2000	11/03	Pittsburgh	17	North Carolina	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	9	7	7 Overs
Pittsburgh	4	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 6	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4

(#56) PITT at (#68) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PITT	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#68
SP+SP+	#50	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#88	#74
OffenseOff	#116	#67
DefenseDef	#41	#97
Spec TeamsST	#37	#9
TalentTal	#39	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#22

Pittsburgh Notes(11/18) Fought vs Clem, Yarnell 350 yds, Rgame awful
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched
(7/30) New OC Bell interesting, WC OC had top 10 off
Pittsburgh Injury Report

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Pittsburgh on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#97
SuccessSuc	#113	#70
ExplosiveExp	#66	#71
PPAPPA	#119	#86
PowerPwr	#78	#77
SP+SP+	#54	#64
Pts POPPO	#98	#35
HavocHav	#114	#92

Pittsburgh Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#83	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#68
Run ExplRExp	#117	#81
PPAExp	#118	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#124
TackleTak	-	#40

Pittsburgh Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#64
PPAExp	#109	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#64
F7 HavocF7	#94	#85
DB HavocDB	#123	#92

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#41
SuccessSuc	#19	#39
ExplosiveExp	#59	#74
PPAPPA	#17	#23
PowerPwr	#86	#45
SP+SP+	#38	#64
Pts POPPO	#45	#33
HavocHav	#17	#36

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#15	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#32
Run ExplRExp	#48	#57
PPAExp	#9	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#16
TackleTak	-	#33

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#103
PPAExp	#47	#67
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#46
F7 HavocF7	#31	#18
DB HavocDB	#24	#85

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Pittsburgh 2.5 (63.0)
Pittsburgh won at North Carolina this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina in 2024 (34-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (41-24)

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7
Nate Yarnell	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)	184	966	5	5.3	72
Eli Holstein (Tr)	81	328	3	4.0	49
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Julian Dugger	21	88	1	4.2	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Desmond Reid (Tr)	52	579	4	11.1	72
Kenny Johnson	46	537	3	11.7	46
Raphael Williams	36	419	6	11.6	35

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Jimmy Scott	30	13	6	6	2
Nate Matlack (Tr)	23	7	5	8	3
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4