North Carolina at NC State - 2021 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Friday, November 26th 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
NC State -6.5 (62.0)
NC State 34 - North Carolina: 30  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 35 - 32 (24 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -7.5  (SP+ NCST -10)
Projected Score: UNC: 25 - NCST: 34 (59)
NCST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 20 miles
Wolfpack (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (57 - 47)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 16 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3 North Carolina at Virginia Tech-5.563.5L 10 - 17UN
Sat 9/11 North Carolina vs Georgia State-26.065.0W 59 - 17OY
Sat 9/18 North Carolina vs Virginia-7.567.0W 59 - 39OY
Sat 9/25 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-14.566.0L 22 - 45ON
Sat 10/2 North Carolina vs Duke-19.574.0W 38 - 7UY
Sat 10/9 North Carolina vs Florida State-17.564.5L 25 - 35UN
Sat 10/16 North Carolina vs Miami-7.563.5W 45 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 North Carolina at Notre Dame+3.563.0L 34 - 44ON
Sat 11/6 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-2.578.0W 58 - 55OY
Thu 11/11 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+6.572.0L 23 - 30UN
Sat 11/20 North Carolina vs Wofford-37.062.0W 34 - 14UN
Fri 11/26 North Carolina at NC State+6.562.0L 30 - 34OY
Thu 12/30 North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.557.5L 21 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
NC State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 NC State vs South Florida-20.058.0W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/11 NC State at Mississippi State-1.555.0L 10 - 24UN
Sat 9/18 NC State vs Furman-27.545.0W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 NC State vs Clemson+10.546.5W 27 - 21OY
Sat 10/2 NC State vs Louisiana Tech-18.556.0W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 NC State at Boston College-3.051.0W 33 - 7UY
Sat 10/23 NC State at Miami-3.554.5L 30 - 31ON
Sat 10/30 NC State vs Louisville-6.057.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/6 NC State at Florida State-3.055.0W 28 - 14UY
Sat 11/13 NC State at Wake Forest+1.065.0L 42 - 45ON
Sat 11/20 NC State vs Syracuse-11.049.5W 41 - 17OY
Fri 11/26 NC State vs North Carolina-6.562.0W 34 - 30ON
Tue 12/28 NC State vs UCLA-2.060.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.2846%35.251%3.4321341%2564.53.2646%32.149%43%4.2469.21.11.2
NCST.2441%33.142%3.2812641%2884.2.0834%19.735%34%3.664.50.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1335.224.346.3%4.531.1244682132565.452%48%51%41%17%.28
NCST Defense1219.716.433.8%3.61.4 - - - - - 44%55%35%34%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1332.131.345.9%4.241.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%43%15%.26
NCST Offense1233.136.341.3%4.20.9214151262884.140%59%42%41%14%.24

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1329:4123.843%58%7.369.21.11.25.52.2028.7
NC State1231:1521.340%42%7.464.50.91.46.62.8430.2
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352%51%39.5212.75.430.373.4371%12%1.21
NCST Defense1244%35% - - - - .052.7950%11%1.02
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353%49% - - - - .193.2982%9%0.95
NCST Offense1240%42%31126.24.111.113.2881%8%0.94

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1348%41%18.229.4255.78.714269.221.630%38%.545%2.2
NCST Defense1255%34% - - - - - - 15.141.639%26%.218%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346%43% - - - - - - 11.361.730%29%.356%2.1
NCST Offense1259%41%2436.9288.47.812356.351.733%29%.346%2.3

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4  #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8  #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    NC State: 10.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 6.4   NC State: 16.1




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.55 NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
NC State's 2021 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1  #14
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #14

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 34
North Carolina 25

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 36
North Carolina 26

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
NC State 33
North Carolina 24

Total Points: 57
NC State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 19.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

NC State's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29NC State42North Carolina19NC State -7NC State48.5Over
202411/30North Carolina30NC State35North Carolina -2.5NC State54.5Over
202311/25NC State39North Carolina20North Carolina -2NC State55.0Over
202211/25North Carolina27NC State30North Carolina -6.5NC State56.0Over
202111/26NC State34North Carolina30NC State -6.5North Carolina62.0Over
202010/24North Carolina48NC State21North Carolina -15.0North Carolina62.0Over
201911/30NC State10North Carolina41North Carolina -11North Carolina57.0Under
201811/24North Carolina28NC State34NC State -7.5North Carolina61.5Over
201711/25NC State33North Carolina21NC State -14.5North Carolina57.0Under
201611/25North Carolina21NC State28North Carolina -10NC State63.0Under
201511/28NC State34North Carolina45North Carolina -6North Carolina65.0Over
201411/29North Carolina7NC State35North Carolina -6NC State0
201311/02NC State19North Carolina27North Carolina -3North Carolina0
201210/27North Carolina43NC State35
201111/05NC State13North Carolina0
201011/20North Carolina25NC State29
200911/28NC State28North Carolina27
200811/22North Carolina10NC State41
200711/10NC State31North Carolina27
200611/18North Carolina23NC State9
200509/24NC State24North Carolina31
200410/09North Carolina30NC State24
200309/27NC State47North Carolina34
200210/12North Carolina17NC State34
200109/29NC State9North Carolina17
200010/13North Carolina20NC State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State1768 Overs
North Carolina973 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 144 - 92 - 62 - 3
Road Teams14 - 129 - 43 - 26 - 2

(#) UNC at (#) NCST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCNCST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #59 #14
Perf GradeGrade #64 #29
OffenseOff #30 #41
DefenseDef #106 #27
Spec TeamsST #36 #55
TalentTal #17 #34
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffNCST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #30 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #14
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #2 #26
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #36
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #24 #39
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #78
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
NC State on Offense
CategoryCatNCST OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #106
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #101
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
NC State Run Game
CategoryCat
NCST OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #101 #85
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #63
NC State Pass Game
CategoryCatNCST OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #19 #102
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #48 #110
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 41° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 13
NC State -6.5 (62.0)
NC State won vs North Carolina this year (34-30)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2022 (30-27)

  
UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NCST's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD