Charlotte at North Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview

Charlotte 49ers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -21.5 (47.5) (-2000) Open: -22.5 | 46.5
North Carolina 38 - Charlotte: 20

49ers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Brewster (Int) (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (23 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: North Carolina -18.5 (SP+ UNC -20)
Projected Score: CHAR: 15 - UNC: 34 (49)
UNC Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
CHAR Travel: 104 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CHAR Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Charlotte's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Charlotte vs James Madison	+6.5	47.5	L 7 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/7	Charlotte at North Carolina	+21.5	47.5	L 20 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb	-14.0	46.5	W 27 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/21	Charlotte at Indiana	+28.5	50.0	L 14 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/28	Charlotte at Rice	+4.0	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Charlotte vs East Carolina	+9.5	47.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Charlotte at Navy	+16.5	57.5	L 17 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/26	Charlotte at Memphis	+17.0	56.5	L 28 - 33	O	Y
Thu 10/31	Charlotte vs Tulane	+14.5	55.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Charlotte vs South Florida	-1.5	53.5	L 24 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/23	Charlotte at Florida Atlantic	-3.0	49.5	W 39 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Charlotte vs UAB	-1.5	59.5	W 29 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR	#116 (.1)	37% (122)	23.7	39% (110)	2.75 (113)	119	35% (120)	224	3.9 (70)	#113 (.25)	45% (107)	35.1	48% (111)	42% (83)	3.87 (81)	65.3	1.8	1
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	30.9	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	28.1	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR	#116 (.1)	37% (122)		39% (110)	2.75 (113)	119	35% (120)	224	3.9 (70)	#113 (.25)	45% (107)		48% (111)	42% (83)	3.87 (81)	65.3	1.8	1
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Offense	12	23.7	23.2	37.1%	3.9	1.8	17	343	119	224	3.7	47%	52%	39%	35%	17%	.1
UNC Defense	13	28.1	33.4	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Defense	12	35.1	36.8	45.3%	3.87	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	48%	42%	15%	.25
UNC Offense	13	30.9	36	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Charlotte	12	28:37	17.3	30%	42%	7.8	65.3	1.8	1	4.9	1.2	1	26.1
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Offense	12	47% (88)	39% (110)	32.3	118.7	3.7	16 (90)	.09 (93)	2.75 (113)	68% (105)	11% (106)	1.1 (24)
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Defense	12	56% (118)	48% (111)	-	-	-	-	.19 (104)	3.27 (106)	68% (35)	8% (114)	0.96 (57)
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Offense	12	52% (46)	35% (120)	14.8	29.4	224.1	7.6	15.2	16 (87)	14 (115)	.12 (120)	1.9 (6)	35% (123)	29% (96)	.23 (103)	6% (57)	2.3 (3)
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Defense	12	44% (18)	42% (83)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.34 (112)	1.8 (122)	31% (92)	33% (107)	.57 (132)	6% (51)	2.4 (133)
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)

Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -13.07 #108
Charlotte's Offense Rating: 16.64 #99
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 15.25 #110
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Charlotte's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Charlotte's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.3 #118
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #102
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #124

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -13.07 North Carolina: 4.235

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -15.3 North Carolina: 5.0

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.235 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 35.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.8

Charlotte's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 34
Charlotte 15

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 26
Charlotte 15

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 35
Charlotte 27

Total Points: 62

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Charlotte	3	North Carolina	20	North Carolina -16.5	North Carolina	49.5	Under
2024	09/07	North Carolina	38	Charlotte	20	North Carolina -21.5	Charlotte	47.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	2	1	1 Overs
Charlotte	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#108) CHAR at (#68) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CHAR	UNC
Power RatePwr	#108	#68
SP+SP+	#118	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#119	#74
OffenseOff	#103	#67
DefenseDef	#125	#97
Spec TeamsST	#134	#9
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#22

Charlotte Notes(12/8) Hired HC Albin (Ohio HC, 33-19 in 4 yrs)
(11/18) 4 straight L's, R Def all 425 yds, 8.9 ypc in USF L
(11/18) Poggi fired after 4 str L's (USF)
(11/3) 3 straight L's vs tough sched, need 3-0 to bowl
(11/3) QBs near worst in CFB, Rgame bottom 30
(11/1) Off is terrible. Run game sucks, Pass worse
(10/20) 5 TOs, 8 flags in L while Outrushed Navy
(10/18) Top 10 in CFB in rushing explosiveness
(10/16) Two ML upsets into Bye. Navy/Mem/Tulane up
(10/8) Huge W (ECU), 311 rush yds (6 ypc). Improving?
(10/8) Significantly better with QB Purdie than others
(9/1) Kinda even vs JMU (L) but 3 TO's 7-19 3rd down
Charlotte Injury Report

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Charlotte on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	UNC Def
Perf GradePerf	#103	#97
SuccessSuc	#122	#53
ExplosiveExp	#2	#66
PPAPPA	#116	#70
PowerPwr	#99	#77
SP+SP+	#102	#64
Pts POPPO	#70	#90
HavocHav	#92	#90

Charlotte Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#76	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#82
Run ExplRExp	#24	#29
PPAExp	#93	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	#113	#121
Stuff RateStuff	#109	#126
TackleTak	-	#40

Charlotte Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#120	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#125
PPAExp	#120	#64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#32	#64
F7 HavocF7	#106	#83
DB HavocDB	#57	#103

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CHAR Def
Perf GradePerf	#67	#125
SuccessSuc	#80	#107
ExplosiveExp	#39	#85
PPAPPA	#65	#113
PowerPwr	#86	#110
SP+SP+	#38	#124
Pts POPPO	#52	#81
HavocHav	#49	#87

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CHAR Def
Run GameRun	#15	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#111
Run ExplRExp	#36	#57
PPAExp	#14	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#100
TackleTak	-	#55

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CHAR Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#83
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#122
PPAExp	#101	#112
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#115
F7 HavocF7	#54	#114
DB HavocDB	#60	#51

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

CHAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 2
North Carolina -21.5 (47.5)
North Carolina won vs Charlotte this year (38-20)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Charlotte last year (38-20)

CHAR's OC Mike Miller (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deshawn Purdie	100	200	50%	1802	10	6	9.0
Max Brown (Tr)	43	93	46%	561	3	6	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hahsaun Wilson	91	559	7	6.1	65
Cartevious Norton (Tr)	129	525	7	4.1	62
Terron Kellman	48	242	0	5.0	41
Max Brown (Tr)	33	85	0	2.6	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	32	795	9	24.8	75
Sean Brown	35	470	1	13.4	42
Jairus Mack	19	418	0	22.0	59
Isaiah Myers	13	237	3	18.2	37

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Ryan Osborn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reid Williford	74	6	2	2	2
Cam Burden	57	3	0	0	2
Dontae Balfour	48	3	0	0	9
Al-Ma'Hi Ali	45	1	0	3	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chantz Williams (Tr)	18	7	4	1	4
Reid Williford	74	6	2	2	2
Demon Clowney	23	5	2	1	0
Mordecai McDaniel	42	2	1	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dontae Balfour	48	3	0	0	9
Al-Ma'Hi Ali	45	1	0	3	7
Chantz Williams (Tr)	18	7	4	1	4

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4