North Carolina at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (50.5) (-142)  Open: -2.5
North Carolina 35 - Florida State: 11  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: North Carolina -3.5  (SP+ UNC -8)

Projected Score: UNC: 26 - FSU: 23 (49)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 485 miles
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 North Carolina at Minnesota-2.052.5W 19 - 17UN
Sat 9/7 North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.547.5W 38 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.557.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 North Carolina vs James Madison-10.048.0L 50 - 70ON
Sat 9/28 North Carolina at Duke-1.055.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 10/5 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.563.0L 24 - 34UN
Sat 10/12 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.560.5L 34 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 North Carolina at Virginia+3.558.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 North Carolina at Florida State-2.550.5W 35 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.564.5W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/23 North Carolina at Boston College-2.050.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 North Carolina vs NC State-2.554.5L 30 - 35ON
Sat 12/28 North Carolina vs UConn-2.053.5L 14 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
FSU Defense122822.740.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
FSU Offense1215.416.435.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53  #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90  #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65  #77
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26%  #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0  #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53   Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0   Florida State: -3.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545  #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77  #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02  #87
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43  #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1  #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 26
Florida State 23


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 30
Florida State 18

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 28
Florida State 20

Total Points: 48
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Florida State11North Carolina35North Carolina -2.5North Carolina50.5Under
202110/09North Carolina25Florida State35North Carolina -17.5Florida State64.5Under
202010/17Florida State31North Carolina28North Carolina -13.5Florida State65.0Under
201610/01Florida State35North Carolina37Florida State -12North Carolina72.5Under
201011/06Florida State35North Carolina37
200910/22North Carolina27Florida State30
200410/02Florida State38North Carolina16
200308/30North Carolina0Florida State37
200109/22North Carolina41Florida State9
200009/15Florida State63North Carolina14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State620 Overs
North Carolina424 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 61 - 30 - 21 - 1
Road Teams6 - 43 - 11 - 12 - 0

(#68) UNC at (#83) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCFSU
Power RatePwr #68 #83
SP+SP+ #49 #83
Perf GradeGrade #74 #120
OffenseOff #67 #124
DefenseDef #97 #111
Spec TeamsST #9 #19
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #22 #13
North Carolina Notes
(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report
Florida State Notes
(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNC OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #111
SuccessSuc #80 #56
ExplosiveExp #39 #114
PPAPPA #65 #112
PowerPwr #86 #87
SP+SP+ #38 #58
Pts POPPO #52 #46
HavocHav #49 #98
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNC OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #15 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #62
Run ExplRExp #36 #114
PPAExp #14 #109
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #81
Stuff RateStuff #19 #88
TackleTak -  #47
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNC OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #102 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #114 #52
Pass ExplPExl #29 #120
PPAExp #101 #110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #47 #93
F7 HavocF7 #54 #77
DB HavocDB #60 #116
Florida State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatFSU OffUNC Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #97
SuccessSuc #128 #53
ExplosiveExp #58 #66
PPAPPA #125 #70
PowerPwr #120 #77
SP+SP+ #114 #64
Pts POPPO #131 #90
HavocHav #129 #90
Florida State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #124 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #82
Run ExplRExp #118 #29
PPAExp #101 #88
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #121
Stuff RateStuff #85 #126
TackleTak -  #40
Florida State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatFSU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #111 #103
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #26
Pass ExplPExl #20 #125
PPAExp #130 #64
Pass Block/RushP Blk #76 #64
F7 HavocF7 #130 #83
DB HavocDB #62 #103
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 10
North Carolina 2.5 (50.5)
North Carolina won at Florida State this year (35-11)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Florida State last year (35-11)

  
UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)18632058%24591567.7
Conner Harrell213757%282217.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2811660155.975
Davion Gause6732644.921
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)7110331.520
Charleston French108418.445
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones36582616.253
John Copenhaver40414410.435
Omarion Hampton3837329.849
Kobe Paysour21365017.436

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Lane744102
Power Echols732126
Amare Campbell699632
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson3512840
Kaimon Rucker308631
Amare Campbell699632
Desmond Evans3410591
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alijah Huzzie364218
Power Echols732126
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lawrance Toafili10945634.228
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Khi Douglas32519416.271
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Lawrance Toafili2521508.632
Hykeem Williams16187111.733

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Azareye'h Thomas512024
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick Payton3210440
Joshua Farmer288460
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fentrell Cypress II241015
Azareye'h Thomas512024
Kevin Knowles II311114