North Carolina at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (50.5) (-142) Open: -2.5
North Carolina 35 - Florida State: 11 (ACC)

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: North Carolina -3.5 (SP+ UNC -8)
Projected Score: UNC: 27 - FSU: 23 (50)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 485 miles

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	19.3	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	24.5	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	33	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	22	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3
FSU Defense	14	22	16.1	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21
FSU Offense	14	33	43.3	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 460.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53 Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Florida State: -3.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 529.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 27
Florida State 23

Projected Total Points: 50

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Florida State	11	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	50.5	Under
2021	10/09	North Carolina	25	Florida State	35	North Carolina -17.5	Florida State	64.5	Under
2020	10/17	Florida State	31	North Carolina	28	North Carolina -13.5	Florida State	65.0	Under
2016	10/01	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37	Florida State -12	North Carolina	72.5	Under
2010	11/06	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37
2009	10/22	North Carolina	27	Florida State	30
2004	10/02	Florida State	38	North Carolina	16
2003	08/30	North Carolina	0	Florida State	37
2001	09/22	North Carolina	41	Florida State	9
2000	09/15	Florida State	63	North Carolina	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	6	2	0 Overs
North Carolina	4	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	1 - 3	0 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 4	3 - 1	1 - 1	2 - 0

(#68) UNC at (#83) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#68	#83
SP+SP+	#49	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#74	#120
OffenseOff	#67	#124
DefenseDef	#97	#111
Spec TeamsST	#9	#19
TalentTal	#21	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	#22	#13

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#111
SuccessSuc	#19	#9
ExplosiveExp	#59	#79
PPAPPA	#17	#13
PowerPwr	#86	#87
SP+SP+	#38	#58
Pts POPPO	#45	#47
HavocHav	#17	#7

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#38
Run ExplRExp	#48	#102
PPAExp	#9	#51
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#19
TackleTak	-	#47

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#65
PPAExp	#47	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#93
F7 HavocF7	#31	#20
DB HavocDB	#24	#2

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#97
SuccessSuc	#79	#70
ExplosiveExp	#16	#71
PPAPPA	#60	#86
PowerPwr	#120	#77
SP+SP+	#114	#64
Pts POPPO	#25	#35
HavocHav	#57	#92

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#124	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#68
Run ExplRExp	#35	#81
PPAExp	#111	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#111	#124
TackleTak	-	#40

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#64
PPAExp	#46	#82
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#64
F7 HavocF7	#52	#85
DB HavocDB	#67	#92

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
North Carolina 2.5 (50.5)
North Carolina won at Florida State this year (35-11)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Florida State in 2024 (35-11)

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4