North Carolina at Pittsburgh - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PITT is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Pittsburgh -11.5  (SP+ PITT -15)
Projected Score: UNC: 20 - PITT: 31 (51)
PITT Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
UNC Travel: 318 miles
Panthers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (80 - 61)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Pittsburgh vs Miami (OH)-14.5
Sat 9/12 Pittsburgh vs UCF-13
Thu 9/17 Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-18
Sat 9/26 Pittsburgh vs Bucknell-31.5
Fri 10/2 Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-7.5
Sat 10/10 Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-11.5
Sat 10/17 Pittsburgh at Boston College-10
Sat 10/24 Pittsburgh at Miami+17.5
Sat 10/31 Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech-4
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/13 Pittsburgh vs Florida State-3
Sat 11/21 Pittsburgh at Louisville+5
Sat 11/28 Pittsburgh at California-5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
PITT#57 (.19)41% (94)33.741% (96)2.63 (122)11841% (75)2743.65 (74)#24 (.08)35% (11)24.834% (7)37% (23)3.81 (82)67.41.81.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
PITT Defense1324.825.135.1%3.811.6 - - - - - 46%52%34%37%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
PITT Offense1333.736.640.6%3.651.8213911182743.643%55%41%41%18%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Pittsburgh1328:5520.833%61%7.367.41.81.67.72.4633.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
PITT Defense1346% (26)34% (7) - - - - -.06 (7)2.34 (6)69% (53)13% (8)0.96 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
PITT Offense1343% (115)41% (96)33.1117.73.618 (70).06 (97)2.63 (122)67% (97)11% (107)1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)
PITT Defense1352% (109)37% (23) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (53)1.6 (110)37% (8)26% (19).17 (20)6% (47)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
PITT Offense1355% (23)41% (75)22.235.7273.57.712.329 (8)15 (127).34 (40)1.7 (29)33% (103)31% (63).35 (53)8% (123)2 (66)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.57  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.57   Pittsburgh: 10.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6   Pittsburgh: 8.4




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 10.65  #34
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 12.38  #58
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 9.48  #23
2026 Talent Rating: 782.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Pittsburgh's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #47

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 31
North Carolina 20

Projected Total Points: 51
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05North Carolina24Pittsburgh34Pittsburgh -2.5Pittsburgh63.0Under
202309/23Pittsburgh24North Carolina41North Carolina -7North Carolina49.5Over
202210/29North Carolina42Pittsburgh24North Carolina -2.5North Carolina65.5Over
202111/11Pittsburgh30North Carolina23Pittsburgh -6.5Pittsburgh72.0Under
201911/14Pittsburgh34North Carolina27Pittsburgh -4Pittsburgh49.0Over
201809/22North Carolina38Pittsburgh35Pittsburgh -3North Carolina48.0Over
201711/09Pittsburgh31North Carolina34Pittsburgh -10North Carolina50.5Over
201609/24North Carolina37Pittsburgh36North Carolina -7Pittsburgh67.0Over
201510/29Pittsburgh19North Carolina26North Carolina -2.5North Carolina59.0Under
201411/15North Carolina40Pittsburgh35North Carolina -1.5North Carolina0
201311/16Pittsburgh27North Carolina34North Carolina -1North Carolina53.0Over
200912/26North Carolina17Pittsburgh19
200011/03Pittsburgh17North Carolina20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh447 Overs
North Carolina973 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 75 - 64 - 21 - 4
Road Teams7 - 66 - 54 - 12 - 4

(#45) UNC at (#34) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCPITT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #34
SP+SP+ #91 #36
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #13 #60
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #56
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #11
ExplosiveExp #121 #119
PPAPPA #119 #24
PowerPwr #67 #23
SP+SP+ #123 #47
Pts POPPO #108 #82
HavocHav #94 #13
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #7
Run ExplRExp #127 #69
PPAExp #130 #7
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #6
Stuff RateStuff #67 #7
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #23
Pass ExplPExl #103 #110
PPAExp #92 #53
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #8
DB HavocDB #55 #47
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #94 #60
ExplosiveExp #10 #62
PPAPPA #57 #78
PowerPwr #58 #32
SP+SP+ #39 #58
Pts POPPO #74 #61
HavocHav #120 #91
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #96 #64
Run ExplRExp #51 #88
PPAExp #97 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #122 #37
Stuff RateStuff #129 #99
TackleTak - NR
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #50
Pass ExplPExl #29 #17
PPAExp #40 #51
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #107 #70
DB HavocDB #123 #90
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina in 2024 (34-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (41-24)

  
UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002

PITT's OC Kade Bell (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Holden Geriner (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
Mason Heintschel868821.036
Justin Cook93103.413
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cataurus Hicks24422417.684
Bryce Yates11202118.468
Elijah Lagg (Tr)2016408.217
Ja'Kyrian Turner2515006.028

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Lovelace796162
Cruce Brookins531002
Demarco Ward (Tr)503010
Alex Sanford474001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Cameron Lindsey326201
Zach Crothers153210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shadarian Harrison290003
Josh Guerrier80003
Braylan Lovelace796162