Louisville at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (28 - 12)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LOU 2nd straight Road Game
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -9  (SP+ LOU -19)
Projected Score: LOU: 29 - UNC: 20 (48)
LOU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
LOU Travel: 403 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Louisville at Ole Miss+12.5
Fri 9/11 Louisville vs Villanova-34
Sat 9/19 Louisville vs SMU-1.5
Sat 9/26 Louisville vs Wake Forest-7
Sat 10/3 Louisville at NC State-1
Fri 10/9 Louisville vs Florida State-5.5
Sat 10/17 Louisville at Syracuse-15.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Louisville vs Stanford-18
Fri 11/6 Louisville at Georgia Tech-1
Sat 11/14 Louisville at North Carolina-9
Sat 11/21 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-5
Sat 11/28 Louisville at Kentucky-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#84 (.15)45% (44)29.950% (8)2.75 (105)16441% (74)2213.62 (77)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (15)37% (19)3.38 (43)63.21.31.5
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1329.92344.7%3.621.3203851642215.144%53%50%41%17%.15
UNC Defense1224.52640.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1321.225.536.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
UNC Offense1219.32138.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1330:1219.635%64%6.963.21.31.55.92.4232.4
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1344% (111)50% (8)32.31645.125 (70).21 (21)2.75 (105)65% (108)10% (98)1.08 (28)
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (15) - - - - .07 (51)2.74 (41)75% (97)11% (38)0.95 (63)
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1353% (35)41% (74)20.632.2220.66.910.718 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (131)28% (21)27% (104).14 (124)6% (90)1.9 (107)
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (19) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (7)34% (24)24% (8).11 (9)7% (38)1.9 (23)
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 8.63  #30
Louisville's Offense Rating: 14.86  #36
Louisville's Defense Rating: 11.23  #31
2026 Talent Rating: 750.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 8.63   North Carolina: 1.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.4   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.485  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 29
North Carolina 20

Projected Total Points: 48
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201709/09North Carolina35Louisville47Louisville -11.5Louisville65.5Over
201209/15Louisville39North Carolina34
201110/08North Carolina14Louisville7
200510/08Louisville69North Carolina14
200409/25North Carolina0Louisville34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina101 Overs
Louisville410 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams2 - 31 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#30) LOU at (#45) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #30 #45
SP+SP+ #25 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #64 #13
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #29
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #44 #60
ExplosiveExp #90 #62
PPAPPA #84 #78
PowerPwr #36 #32
SP+SP+ #39 #58
Pts POPPO #77 #61
HavocHav #93 #91
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #64
Run ExplRExp #28 #88
PPAExp #21 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #105 #37
Stuff RateStuff #122 #99
TackleTak - NR
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #50
Pass ExplPExl #131 #17
PPAExp #119 #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #70
DB HavocDB #90 #90
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffLOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #16
ExplosiveExp #121 #26
PPAPPA #119 #15
PowerPwr #67 #31
SP+SP+ #123 #29
Pts POPPO #108 #43
HavocHav #94 #33
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffLOU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #15
Run ExplRExp #127 #63
PPAExp #130 #51
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #41
Stuff RateStuff #67 #52
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffLOU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #19
Pass ExplPExl #103 #7
PPAExp #92 #6
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #38
DB HavocDB #55 #38
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lincoln Kienholz (Tr)111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Marquise Davis (Tr)3420025.923
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Jackson Voth (Tr)48536411.235
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Lawayne McCoy (Tr)27403314.934

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Koen Entringer (Tr)734013
Clev Lubin5913873
Corey Gordon533002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin5913873
Tyler Thompson (Tr)268711
Adonijah Green316440
Antonio Watts427323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Tayon Holloway424104
Clev Lubin5913873

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002