Louisville at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC (ACC)

Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (28 - 12)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#24)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

LOU 2nd straight Road Game
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -10.5 (SP+ LOU -19)
Projected Score: LOU: 29 - UNC: 19 (48)
LOU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
LOU Travel: 403 miles

Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Louisville vs Ole Miss	+12.5
Fri 9/11	Louisville vs Villanova	-36.5
Sat 9/19	Louisville vs SMU	-1
Sat 9/26	Louisville vs Wake Forest	-7.5
Sat 10/3	Louisville at NC State	-2
Fri 10/9	Louisville vs Florida State	-7
Sat 10/17	Louisville at Syracuse	-15
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Louisville vs Stanford	-20
Fri 11/6	Louisville at Georgia Tech	-1.5
Sat 11/14	Louisville at North Carolina	-10.5
Sat 11/21	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-5.5
Sat 11/28	Louisville at Kentucky	-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	North Carolina vs TCU	+12.5
Sat 9/12	North Carolina vs East Tennessee State	-23
Sat 9/19	North Carolina at Clemson	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	+25
Sat 10/10	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+12.5
Sat 10/17	North Carolina at Duke	+10
Sat 10/24	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-7
Sat 10/31	North Carolina vs Miami	+22.5
Sat 11/7	North Carolina at UConn	+1
Sat 11/14	North Carolina vs Louisville	+10.5
Sat 11/21	North Carolina at Virginia	+14
Sat 11/28	North Carolina vs NC State	+6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#84 (.15)	45% (44)	29.9	50% (8)	2.75 (105)	164	41% (74)	221	3.62 (77)	#15 (.05)	37% (16)	21.2	38% (15)	37% (19)	3.38 (43)	63.2	1.3	1.5
UNC	#119 (.07)	38% (115)	19.3	38% (121)	2.72 (110)	105	39% (98)	184	3.33 (108)	#78 (.18)	41% (60)	24.5	42% (64)	40% (50)	3.58 (61)	62.6	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	29.9	23	44.7%	3.62	1.3	20	385	164	221	5.1	44%	53%	50%	41%	17%	.15
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	40.9%	3.58	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	42%	40%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	21.2	25.5	36.7%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	38%	37%	17%	.05
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	38.2%	3.33	1.3	17	289	105	184	3.7	48%	50%	38%	39%	17%	.07

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	30:12	19.6	35%	64%	6.9	63.2	1.3	1.5	5.9	2.4	2	32.4
North Carolina	12	28:24	16.6	37%	73%	6.6	62.6	1.3	1	5.1	2.6	0	29.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	44% (111)	50% (8)	32.3	164	5.1	25 (70)	.21 (21)	2.75 (105)	65% (108)	10% (98)	1.08 (28)
UNC Defense	12	47% (36)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.14 (91)	2.72 (37)	89% (134)	10% (70)	0.99 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	46% (17)	38% (15)	-	-	-	-	.07 (51)	2.74 (41)	75% (97)	11% (38)	0.95 (63)
UNC Offense	12	48% (83)	38% (121)	28.8	105.2	3.7	11 (107)	-.03 (130)	2.72 (110)	64% (114)	11% (111)	0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	53% (35)	41% (74)	20.6	32.2	220.6	6.9	10.7	18 (75)	9 (60)	.13 (119)	1.4 (131)	28% (21)	27% (104)	.14 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (107)
UNC Defense	12	51% (103)	40% (50)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.2 (51)	1.4 (17)	31% (76)	29% (61)	.32 (78)	5% (90)	2 (51)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	53% (120)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (6)	.06 (6)	1.4 (7)	34% (24)	24% (8)	.11 (9)	7% (38)	1.9 (23)
UNC Offense	12	50% (58)	39% (98)	18.9	29.6	183.9	6.2	9.7	13 (121)	6 (34)	.21 (92)	1.5 (103)	31% (56)	28% (92)	.26 (85)	6% (55)	1.8 (130)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.10 #28
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.05 #28
Louisville's Defense Rating: 10.95 #35
2026 Talent Rating: 806.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Louisville's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Louisville's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4 #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.10 North Carolina: 2.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.4 North Carolina: -6.6

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 2.02 #55
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 12.46 #74
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.82 #41
2026 Talent Rating: 1066.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 29
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 48

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	09/09	North Carolina	35	Louisville	47	Louisville -11.5	Louisville	65.5	Over
2012	09/15	Louisville	39	North Carolina	34
2011	10/08	North Carolina	14	Louisville	7
2005	10/08	Louisville	69	North Carolina	14
2004	09/25	North Carolina	0	Louisville	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	1	0	1 Overs
Louisville	4	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#28) LOU at (#55) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#28	#55
SP+SP+	#25	#91
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#60	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#39	#34

Louisville Notes(3/3) Vibes: High, love Brohm, big portals, 9 W's a year
(2/7) RB I Brown back + K Brown. Have depth here
(2/2) DC English out, 30 portals in/37 out. Big changes
(2/2) OL looks good w 5 portal adds. Must find Center
(2/2) QB1 Kienholz (OSU portal), Wydner (FCS) exp'd
(2/2) WR rebuild, 4 portal adds incl Richardson & McCoy
(2/2) TE Brody Foley was a big get, big target + blocker
(2/2) DEs really good, but portal DTs must hit. Depth?
(2/2) LBs strongest unit, A Watts is an All American
(2/2) DBs added 6 portals, Entriger (Iowa) big add
(2/2) DT, CB & WR have big ?? OL portals must gel
Louisville Injury Report

North Carolina Notes(2/17) Vibes: Low, '25 was a disaster. Can they improve?
(2/7) GM Lombardi has been a disaster. Will sink ship
(2/7) New OC Petrino is great, can he work miracles?
(2/6) LBs counting on portals, esp two from Richmond
(2/6) CBs Cost & Patterson decent duo, S has lots of ?
(2/6) Don't believe in this staff nor this roster
(2/6) QB a big ? Edwards (Wisc), O'Neil (TAMU)?
(2/6) RB is June ready to be RB1? Count on depth?
(2/6) WR Shipp good, can #2 & depth emerge?
(2/6) OL has a lot of ? There's some talent, but lack exp
(2/6) DL has a pair of decent DT's and one proven DE
North Carolina Injury Report

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#44	#60
ExplosiveExp	#90	#62
PPAPPA	#84	#78
PowerPwr	#28	#41
SP+SP+	#39	#58
Pts POPPO	#77	#61
HavocHav	#93	#91

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#64
Run ExplRExp	#28	#88
PPAExp	#21	#91
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#99
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#50
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#17
PPAExp	#119	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#98	#70
DB HavocDB	#90	#90

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#115	#16
ExplosiveExp	#121	#26
PPAPPA	#119	#15
PowerPwr	#74	#35
SP+SP+	#123	#29
Pts POPPO	#108	#43
HavocHav	#94	#33

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#15
Run ExplRExp	#127	#63
PPAExp	#130	#51
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#52
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#103	#7
PPAExp	#92	#6
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#111	#38
DB HavocDB	#55	#38

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Davin Wydner (Tr)	148	263	56%	1672	15	8	6.4
Lincoln Kienholz (Tr)	11	14	79%	139	1	0	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	101	884	7	8.8	78
Keyjuan Brown	96	704	6	7.3	67
Davin Wydner (Tr)	110	441	3	4.0	34
Braxton Jennings	37	200	1	5.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)	47	810	7	17.2	75
Jackson Voth (Tr)	48	536	4	11.2	35
Brody Foley (Tr)	36	521	7	14.5	72
Lawayne McCoy (Tr)	27	403	3	14.9	34

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Mark Ivey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Koen Entringer (Tr)	73	4	0	1	3
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3
T.J. Capers	46	3	0	0	1
Tayon Holloway	42	4	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3
Tyler Thompson (Tr)	26	8	7	1	1
Adonijah Green	31	6	4	4	0
Antonio Watts	42	7	3	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tayon Holloway	42	4	1	0	4
Koen Entringer (Tr)	73	4	0	1	3
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taron Dickens (Tr)	271	365	74%	3508	38	2	9.6
Billy Edwards	7	16	44%	113	0	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demon June	84	464	2	5.5	50
Taron Dickens (Tr)	97	321	1	3.3	28
Benjamin Hall	71	274	2	3.9	18
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)	14	129	1	9.2	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Shipp	60	671	6	11.2	55
Mason Humphrey (Tr)	35	651	4	18.6	77
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)	26	211	0	8.1	45
Demon June	17	159	1	9.4	72

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude	47	12	11	5	0
Kaleb Cost	45	2	0	0	5
Isaiah Johnson	37	3	2	1	0
Leroy Jackson	34	0	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Melkart Abou-Jaoude	47	12	11	5
Isaiah Johnson	37	3	2	1
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)	9	2	1	1
Xavier Lewis	8	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaiden Patterson	33	2	5
Kaleb Cost	45	2	5
Coleman Bryson	16	0	2