North Carolina at Duke - 2022 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 15th 2022 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (70.0)
North Carolina 38 - Duke: 35  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 34 - 31 (38 - 35 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Road Game
DUKE is playing their 7th straight game
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -1  (SP+ UNC -3)
Projected Score: UNC: 27 - DUKE: 33 (60)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 9 miles
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.055.0W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/3 North Carolina at App State+3.056.0W 63 - 61OY
Sat 9/10 North Carolina at Georgia State-7.064.0W 35 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.555.0L 32 - 45ON
Sat 10/1 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.557.0W 41 - 10UY
Sat 10/8 North Carolina at Miami+4.067.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/15 North Carolina at Duke-7.070.0W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.565.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 11/5 North Carolina at Virginia-7.061.5W 31 - 28UN
Sat 11/12 North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.579.0W 36 - 34UY
Sat 11/19 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.563.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 11/25 North Carolina vs NC State-6.556.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 12/3 North Carolina vs Clemson+7.564.0L 10 - 39UN
Wed 12/28 North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Duke vs Temple-9.551.5W 30 - 0UY
Sat 9/10 Duke at Northwestern+10.056.5W 31 - 23UY
Sat 9/17 Duke vs North Carolina A&T-30.553.0W 49 - 20ON
Sat 9/24 Duke at Kansas+7.566.0L 27 - 35UN
Sat 10/1 Duke vs Virginia-2.055.0W 38 - 17UY
Sat 10/8 Duke at Georgia Tech-3.554.0L 20 - 23UN
Sat 10/15 Duke vs North Carolina+7.070.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/22 Duke at Miami+10.059.0W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/4 Duke at Boston College-11.547.0W 38 - 31ON
Sat 11/12 Duke vs Virginia Tech-10.050.0W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/19 Duke at Pittsburgh+6.549.0L 26 - 28OY
Sat 11/26 Duke vs Wake Forest+3.067.0W 34 - 31UY
Wed 12/28 Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.346%34.445%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%30.849%48%4.5155.311.1
DUKE.2444%32.847%3.4518442%2324.1.1844%22.144%45%3.9550.20.82.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1434.438.346.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3
DUKE Defense1322.118.844%3.952.2 - - - - - 43%56%44%45%20%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1430.83548.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
DUKE Offense1332.83544.1%4.10.822416184232551%48%47%42%14%.24

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Duke1333:0521.742%58%5.250.20.82.25.22.8231.8
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1
DUKE Defense1343%44% - - - - .073.1179%12%0.83
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
DUKE Offense1351%47%37.2184.2531.263.4580%7%1.06

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9
DUKE Defense1356%45% - - - - - - 10.31.531%38%.498%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
DUKE Offense1348%42%19.630.7231.57.511.8206.271.531%33%.487%2.3

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8  #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    Duke: 5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 7.8   Duke: 5.0




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 5 NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Duke's 2022 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0  #55
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #61
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7  #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.3
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 33
North Carolina 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 32
North Carolina 27

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Duke 34
North Carolina 28

Total Points: 62
Duke Scoring
Offense: 32.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Duke's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22North Carolina25Duke32Duke -6.5Duke50.5Over
202409/28Duke21North Carolina20North Carolina -1Duke55.5Under
202311/11North Carolina47Duke45North Carolina -9.5Duke52.5Over
202210/15Duke35North Carolina38North Carolina -7Duke70.0Over
202110/02North Carolina38Duke7North Carolina -19.5North Carolina74.0Under
202011/07Duke24North Carolina56North Carolina -11.5North Carolina63.0Over
201910/26North Carolina20Duke17North Carolina -2.5North Carolina52.5Under
201811/10Duke42North Carolina35Duke -7.5North Carolina58.5Over
201709/23North Carolina17Duke27North Carolina -1.5Duke61.0Under
201611/10Duke28North Carolina27North Carolina -10.5Duke66.5Under
201511/07North Carolina66Duke31North Carolina -8North Carolina59.5Over
201411/20Duke20North Carolina45Duke -6North Carolina0
201311/30North Carolina25Duke27North Carolina -5.5Duke0
201210/20Duke33North Carolina30
201111/26North Carolina37Duke21
201011/27Duke19North Carolina24
200911/07North Carolina19Duke6
200811/29Duke20North Carolina28
200711/24North Carolina20Duke14
200611/25Duke44North Carolina45
200511/19North Carolina24Duke21
200411/20Duke17North Carolina40
200311/22North Carolina22Duke30
200111/17North Carolina52Duke17
200011/17Duke21North Carolina59
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke876 Overs
North Carolina1765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 73 - 53 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 62 - 35 - 3

(#) UNC at (#) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCDUKE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #46 #55
Perf GradeGrade #65 #49
OffenseOff #43 #53
DefenseDef #102 #55
Spec TeamsST #25 #51
TalentTal #16 #62
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #55
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #50
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #62 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #117 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #76
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #2 #84
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Duke on Offense
CategoryCatDUKE OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #102
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #61 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Duke Run Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #50 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #20
Duke Pass Game
CategoryCatDUKE OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #69 #102
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #52 #62
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67°
Rematch from Week 7
North Carolina 7.0 (70.0)
North Carolina won at Duke this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2022 (38-35)

  
UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Robb Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD