North Carolina at Duke - 2022 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (70.0)
North Carolina 38 - Duke: 35 (ACC)

Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Road Game
DUKE is playing their 7th straight game
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -1 (SP+ UNC -3)
Projected Score: UNC: 24 - DUKE: 29 (53)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 9 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	North Carolina vs Florida A&M	-45.0	55.0	W 56 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/3	North Carolina at App State	+3.0	56.0	W 63 - 61	O	Y
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Georgia State	-7.0	64.0	W 35 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	-2.5	55.0	L 32 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	57.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina at Miami	+4.0	67.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Duke	-7.0	70.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-2.5	65.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	North Carolina at Virginia	-7.0	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/12	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+4.5	79.0	W 36 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-21.5	63.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-6.5	56.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 12/3	North Carolina vs Clemson	+7.5	64.0	L 10 - 39	U	N
Wed 12/28	North Carolina vs Oregon	+13.0	76.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Duke's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Duke vs Temple	-9.5	51.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Duke at Northwestern	+10.0	56.5	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Duke vs North Carolina A&T	-30.5	53.0	W 49 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/24	Duke at Kansas	+7.5	66.0	L 27 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/1	Duke vs Virginia	-2.0	55.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Duke at Georgia Tech	-3.5	54.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/15	Duke vs North Carolina	+7.0	70.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Duke at Miami	+10.0	59.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/4	Duke at Boston College	-11.5	47.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Duke vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Duke at Pittsburgh	+6.5	49.0	L 26 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Duke vs Wake Forest	+3.0	67.0	W 34 - 31	U	Y
Wed 12/28	Duke vs UCF	-3.5	63.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.28	46%	19.3	51%	3.43	213	41%	256	4.53	.26	46%	24.5	49%	43%	4.24	69.2	1.1	1.2
DUKE	.18	43%	34.6	43%	3.15	180	43%	238	3.07	.38	47%	29.4	48%	47%	4.77	61.7	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	46.3%	4.53	1.1	24	468	213	256	5.4	52%	48%	51%	41%	17%	.28
DUKE Defense	12	29.4	31.3	46.7%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	48%	47%	16%	.38

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	45.9%	4.24	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	49%	43%	15%	.26
DUKE Offense	12	34.6	32.2	42.8%	3.07	1.8	22	418	180	238	4.1	53%	46%	43%	43%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	29:41	23.8	43%	58%	7.3	69.2	1.1	1.2	5.5	2.2	0	28.7
Duke	12	29:18	21.8	42%	38%	6.5	61.7	1.8	1.2	5	1.8	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52%	51%	39.5	212.7	5.4	30	.37	3.43	71%	12%	1.21
DUKE Defense	12	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.28	78%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.29	82%	9%	0.95
DUKE Offense	12	53%	43%	43.7	180.3	4.1	22	.13	3.15	76%	11%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	48%	41%	18.2	29.4	255.7	8.7	14	26	9	.22	1.6	30%	38%	.54	5%	2.2
DUKE Defense	12	49%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.56	1.9	33%	40%	.64	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.36	1.7	30%	29%	.35	6%	2.1
DUKE Offense	12	46%	43%	22.1	34.2	237.9	7	10.8	9	9	.28	1.5	32%	29%	.25	5%	1.8

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Duke: 5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 7.8 Duke: 5.0

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 5 NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Duke's 2022 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #55
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #61
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
North Carolina 24

Projected Total Points: 53

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	North Carolina	25	Duke	32	Duke -6.5	Duke	50.5	Over
2024	09/28	Duke	21	North Carolina	20	North Carolina -1	Duke	55.5	Under
2023	11/11	North Carolina	47	Duke	45	North Carolina -9.5	Duke	52.5	Over
2022	10/15	Duke	35	North Carolina	38	North Carolina -7	Duke	70.0	Over
2021	10/02	North Carolina	38	Duke	7	North Carolina -19.5	North Carolina	74.0	Under
2020	11/07	Duke	24	North Carolina	56	North Carolina -11.5	North Carolina	63.0	Over
2019	10/26	North Carolina	20	Duke	17	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	52.5	Under
2018	11/10	Duke	42	North Carolina	35	Duke -7.5	North Carolina	58.5	Over
2017	09/23	North Carolina	17	Duke	27	North Carolina -1.5	Duke	61.0	Under
2016	11/10	Duke	28	North Carolina	27	North Carolina -10.5	Duke	66.5	Under
2015	11/07	North Carolina	66	Duke	31	North Carolina -8	North Carolina	59.5	Over
2014	11/20	Duke	20	North Carolina	45	Duke -6	North Carolina	0
2013	11/30	North Carolina	25	Duke	27	North Carolina -5.5	Duke	0
2012	10/20	Duke	33	North Carolina	30
2011	11/26	North Carolina	37	Duke	21
2010	11/27	Duke	19	North Carolina	24
2009	11/07	North Carolina	19	Duke	6
2008	11/29	Duke	20	North Carolina	28
2007	11/24	North Carolina	20	Duke	14
2006	11/25	Duke	44	North Carolina	45
2005	11/19	North Carolina	24	Duke	21
2004	11/20	Duke	17	North Carolina	40
2003	11/22	North Carolina	22	Duke	30
2001	11/17	North Carolina	52	Duke	17
2000	11/17	Duke	21	North Carolina	59

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	8	7	6 Overs
North Carolina	17	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	6 - 7	3 - 5	3 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 6	2 - 3	5 - 3

(#) UNC at (#) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#46	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#49
OffenseOff	#43	#53
DefenseDef	#102	#55
Spec TeamsST	#25	#51
TalentTal	#16	#62
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Duke Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#55
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#50
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#62	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#76

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#61	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#50	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#39	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#20

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#62
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
North Carolina 7.0 (70.0)
North Carolina won at Duke this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (32-25)
Duke beat North Carolina in 2024 (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Robb Smith (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD