North Carolina at UConn - 2026 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies

Saturday, November 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Rentschler Field - East Hartford, CT

Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

UNC is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UConn -1 (SP+ CONN -12)
Projected Score: UNC: 26 - CONN: 27 (52)
CONN Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNC Travel: 532 miles

Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 4.8 (#43)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	North Carolina vs TCU	+12.5
Sat 9/12	North Carolina vs East Tennessee State	-23
Sat 9/19	North Carolina at Clemson	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	+25
Sat 10/10	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+12.5
Sat 10/17	North Carolina at Duke	+10
Sat 10/24	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-7
Sat 10/31	North Carolina vs Miami	+22.5
Sat 11/7	North Carolina at UConn	+1
Sat 11/14	North Carolina vs Louisville	+10.5
Sat 11/21	North Carolina at Virginia	+14
Sat 11/28	North Carolina vs NC State	+6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

UConn's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	UConn vs Lafayette	-21.5
Sat 9/12	UConn vs Maryland	+2
Sat 9/19	UConn at Southern Miss	-1
Sat 9/26	UConn at Miami (OH)	+2
Sat 10/3	UConn vs Syracuse	-5
Sat 10/10	UConn at Temple	-0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	UConn vs Massachusetts	-30.5
Sat 10/31	UConn at Air Force	-3
Sat 11/7	UConn vs North Carolina	-1
Sat 11/14	UConn vs James Madison	+5.5
Sat 11/21	UConn vs Old Dominion	-1.5
Sat 11/28	UConn at Wyoming	-4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#119 (.07)	38% (115)	19.3	38% (121)	2.72 (110)	105	39% (98)	184	3.33 (108)	#78 (.18)	41% (60)	24.5	42% (64)	40% (50)	3.58 (61)	62.6	1.3	1
CONN	#9 (.31)	46% (29)	35.3	46% (44)	2.93 (69)	165	47% (22)	284	4.58 (14)	#113 (.22)	47% (126)	27	50% (133)	43% (89)	3.8 (81)	48.3	0.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CONN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	12	19.3	17.5	38.2%	3.33	1.3	17	289	105	184	3.7	48%	50%	38%	39%	17%	.07
CONN Defense	13	27	19.5	46.6%	3.8	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	50%	43%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	12	24.5	23	40.9%	3.58	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	42%	40%	15%	.18
CONN Offense	13	35.3	40.3	46%	4.58	0.2	21	449	165	284	5.3	45%	54%	46%	47%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	12	28:24	16.6	37%	73%	6.6	62.6	1.3	1	5.1	2.6	0	29.3
UConn	13	28:50	21.2	41%	71%	4.9	48.3	0.2	1.3	6.1	2.7	0	30.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	12	48% (83)	38% (121)	28.8	105.2	3.7	11 (107)	-.03 (130)	2.72 (110)	64% (114)	11% (111)	0.8 (127)
CONN Defense	13	55% (121)	50% (133)	-	-	-	-	.21 (123)	3.37 (132)	67% (32)	10% (70)	0.95 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	12	47% (36)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.14 (91)	2.72 (37)	89% (134)	10% (70)	0.99 (88)
CONN Offense	13	45% (110)	46% (44)	30.9	164.7	5.3	26 (36)	.21 (24)	2.93 (69)	82% (8)	6% (3)	1.04 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	12	50% (58)	39% (98)	18.9	29.6	183.9	6.2	9.7	13 (121)	6 (34)	.21 (92)	1.5 (103)	31% (56)	28% (92)	.26 (85)	6% (55)	1.8 (130)
CONN Defense	13	44% (18)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (55)	.28 (83)	1.6 (68)	26% (132)	33% (115)	.4 (113)	5% (95)	2 (81)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	12	51% (103)	40% (50)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.2 (51)	1.4 (17)	31% (76)	29% (61)	.32 (78)	5% (90)	2 (51)
CONN Offense	13	54% (25)	47% (22)	23.6	34.7	283.8	8.2	12	30 (14)	1 (1)	.44 (11)	1.6 (48)	32% (74)	29% (83)	.48 (14)	6% (55)	2.5 (1)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.64 #55
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 12.46 #74
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.82 #41
2026 Talent Rating: 1066.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.64 UConn: 0.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6 UConn: 5.1

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 0.415 #112
UConn's Offense Rating: 11.35 #83
UConn's Defense Rating: 25.62 #134
2026 Talent Rating: 678.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #57
UConn's 2026 Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8
UConn's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #53
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #38
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #76

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 934
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UConn 27
North Carolina 26

Projected Total Points: 52

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/28	North Carolina	14	UConn	27	North Carolina -2	UConn	53.5	Under
2009	09/12	UConn	10	North Carolina	12
2008	10/04	North Carolina	38	UConn	12

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	1	1	0 Overs
North Carolina	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#55) UNC at (#112) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	CONN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#55	#112
SP+SP+	#91	#53
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#7	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#57

North Carolina Notes(2/17) Vibes: Low, '25 was a disaster. Can they improve?
(2/7) GM Lombardi has been a disaster. Will sink ship
(2/7) New OC Petrino is great, can he work miracles?
(2/6) LBs counting on portals, esp two from Richmond
(2/6) CBs Cost & Patterson decent duo, S has lots of ?
(2/6) Don't believe in this staff nor this roster
(2/6) QB a big ? Edwards (Wisc), O'Neil (TAMU)?
(2/6) RB is June ready to be RB1? Count on depth?
(2/6) WR Shipp good, can #2 & depth emerge?
(2/6) OL has a lot of ? There's some talent, but lack exp
(2/6) DL has a pair of decent DT's and one proven DE
North Carolina Injury Report

UConn Notes(2/17) Vibes: Stable, Candle hire popular, 18 W's in 2 yrs
(2/17) My take: Candle underperformed badly at Toledo
(2/17) QB1? Osborne (Toledo) vs Merklinger (Tenn)
(2/17) 52 portal adds, 17 from Toledo, sneaky good
(2/17) RB 4 portals, none really stand out. Have depth
(2/17) WR 10 portal adds, 6 from Toledo. Should be good
(2/17) OL 10 portals, have 3 w starting exp, some depth
(2/17) DL 11 portals, only 4 have real exp, not sure
(2/17) DB 9 portals, one starting S and lots of PTers
UConn Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CONN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#115	#126
ExplosiveExp	#121	#42
PPAPPA	#119	#113
PowerPwr	#74	#134
SP+SP+	#123	#76
Pts POPPO	#108	#81
HavocHav	#94	#91

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#133
Run ExplRExp	#127	#65
PPAExp	#130	#123
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#132
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#135
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#103	#68
PPAExp	#92	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#111	#70
DB HavocDB	#55	#95

UConn on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#29	#60
ExplosiveExp	#26	#62
PPAPPA	#9	#78
PowerPwr	#83	#41
SP+SP+	#38	#58
Pts POPPO	#14	#61
HavocHav	#11	#91

UConn Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#64
Run ExplRExp	#38	#88
PPAExp	#24	#91
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#99
TackleTak	-	NR

UConn Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	CONN Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#22	#50
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#17
PPAExp	#11	#51
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#3	#70
DB HavocDB	#55	#90

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
UConn beat North Carolina in 2024 (27-14)

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taron Dickens (Tr)	271	365	74%	3508	38	2	9.6
Billy Edwards	7	16	44%	113	0	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demon June	84	464	2	5.5	50
Taron Dickens (Tr)	97	321	1	3.3	28
Benjamin Hall	71	274	2	3.9	18
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)	14	129	1	9.2	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Shipp	60	671	6	11.2	55
Mason Humphrey (Tr)	35	651	4	18.6	77
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)	26	211	0	8.1	45
Demon June	17	159	1	9.4	72

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude	47	12	11	5	0
Kaleb Cost	45	2	0	0	5
Isaiah Johnson	37	3	2	1	0
Leroy Jackson	34	0	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Melkart Abou-Jaoude	47	12	11	5
Isaiah Johnson	37	3	2	1
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)	9	2	1	1
Xavier Lewis	8	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaiden Patterson	33	2	5
Kaleb Cost	45	2	5
Coleman Bryson	16	0	2

CONN's OC Marquel Blackwell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kalieb Osborne (Tr)	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2
Jake Merklinger (Tr)	13	24	54%	173	2	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenji Christian	105	528	4	5.0	37
Trey Cornist (Tr)	104	469	1	4.5	29
Kalieb Osborne (Tr)	51	282	2	5.5	33
Cyncir Bowers (Tr)	63	249	2	4.0	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shamar Porter	17	219	1	12.9	56
Kenji Christian	17	193	1	11.4	42
Ryder Treadway (Tr)	13	176	3	13.5	24
Javon Brown (Tr)	8	156	1	19.5	46

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Ryan Manalac (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman (Tr)	93	15	5	6	1
Esean Carter	36	4	3	3	1
Luke Murphy (Tr)	36	4	0	0	1
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman (Tr)	93	15	5	6	1
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Esean Carter	36	4	3	3	1
Chamberlain Campbell (Tr)	6	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Zakaih Saez (Tr)	13	1	1	0	2
K'Von Sherman (Tr)	93	15	5	6	1