North Carolina at Wake Forest - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
BB&T Field - Winston-Salem, NC  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wake Forest -3   (SP+ UNC -2)

Projected Score: UNC: 18 - WAKE: 21 (38)
WAKE Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UNC Travel: 69 miles
Demon Deacons (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 18 (25 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+6.548.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+11.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+9
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+4.5
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+7
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-6
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+1
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+7.5
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech-4.5
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.5
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+20
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+9
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-13.5
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+5.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#98 (.11)38% (105)2536% (116)2.73 (94)13041% (86)1494.15 (62)#43 (.05)38% (63)1932% (20)44% (98)1.73 (10)43.31.32
WAKE#81 (.16)37% (112)25.338% (107)2.36 (118)15437% (107)2463 (116)#30 (.01)33% (20)17.733% (22)33% (34)2.94 (49)59.71.70.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense3252038.2%4.151.3142791301494.357%43%36%41%17%.11
WAKE Defense317.717.732.7%2.940.7 - - - - - 48%52%33%33%21%.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense319338.2%1.732 - - - - - 47%53%32%44%14%.05
WAKE Offense325.325.337.1%31.7184001542464.648%51%38%37%16%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina326:3013.733%67%443.31.3241.3034.1
Wake Forest326:5917.738%40%6.359.71.70.79.32.7129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense357% (29)36% (116)30.7130.34.34 (79).1 (84)2.73 (94)67% (86)13% (127)1.13 (38)
WAKE Defense348% (55)33% (22) - - - - -.06 (33)2.44 (39)62% (39)14% (21)1 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense347% (52)32% (20) - - - - -.13 (17)1.54 (4)86% (112)7% (106)0.82 (41)
WAKE Offense348% (85)38% (107)33.31544.67 (38).21 (44)2.36 (118)67% (86)11% (100)1.51 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense343% (104)41% (86)13.321.7148.76.911.24 (72)2 (60).13 (106)1.6 (46)28% (49)30% (84).38 (58)4% (39)2.2 (42)
WAKE Defense352% (83)33% (34) - - - - - - 1 (87).09 (36)1.6 (87)40% (6)28% (61).11 (34)7% (51)1.8 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense353% (88)44% (98) - - - - - - 4 (12).21 (67)1.4 (44)33% (73)30% (75).27 (67)6% (56)2 (74)
WAKE Offense351% (53)37% (107)1929.7246.38.3132 (102)3 (92).15 (100)1.6 (53)32% (82)15% (133)-.04 (127)5% (72)3.1 (2)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 3.75   Wake Forest: 4.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1   Wake Forest: -1.8




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 4.905 #65
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 2.25 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #86
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Wake Forest 21
North Carolina 18


Total Points: 38

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 17.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16North Carolina31Wake Forest24North CarolinaNorth Carolina -10.5Wake Forest64.5Under
202211/12Wake Forest34North Carolina36North CarolinaWake Forest -4.5North Carolina79.0Under
202111/06North Carolina58Wake Forest55North CarolinaNorth Carolina -2.5North Carolina78.0Over
202011/14North Carolina59Wake Forest53North CarolinaNorth Carolina -13Wake Forest70.5Over
201909/13Wake Forest24North Carolina18Wake ForestWake Forest -3Wake Forest65.0Under
201510/17North Carolina50Wake Forest14North CarolinaNorth Carolina -14North Carolina53.5Over
201209/08Wake Forest28North Carolina27Wake Forest
201110/29North Carolina49Wake Forest24North Carolina
200710/27Wake Forest37North Carolina10Wake Forest
200610/28North Carolina17Wake Forest24Wake Forest
200411/13Wake Forest24North Carolina31North Carolina
200311/08North Carolina42Wake Forest34North Carolina
200210/26Wake Forest31North Carolina0Wake Forest
200111/10North Carolina31Wake Forest32Wake Forest
200009/08Wake Forest14North Carolina35North Carolina
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest633 Overs
North Carolina933 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 53 - 33 - 30 - 0
Road Teams5 - 103 - 30 - 03 - 3

(#70) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina has lost 6 straight
North Carolina has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWAKEUNC
OverallOver#61#42
OffenseOff#91#71
DefenseDef#46#30
Special TeamsST#42#72
PassingPass#68#62
RushingRush#99#100
Run BlockRBLK#103#46
Pass BlockPBLK#40#10
Route RunningWR Rt#69#71
TacklingTkl#68#27
Run DefenseR Def#72#37
Pass Rush DefPRush#13#35
Coverage DefCov#43#39

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Wake Forest last year (31-24)
North Carolina beat Wake Forest in 2022 (36-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | WAKE
Depth Chart: UNC | WAKE
Rosters: UNC | WAKE
(#65) Wake Forest Info
Power Rating: 4.905 #65
Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Defense Rating: 2.25 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #68
Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Avg in Scoring Position 2.94 PPO
Great Run Def Success 33%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wake Forest has lost 7 straight
Wake Forest has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 1 (1 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Wake Forest Notes
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
(5/15) 50% of DL exp is from G5 portals.
(5/15) Can L Webb (UTSA) be a lockdown CB?

Wake Forest Highlights
Wake Forest offense is explosive (#9)
Wake Forest has a really good defense (#20)
Wake Forest has a good run defense (#22)
Wake Forest Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#7)
Wake Forest Front 7 is disruptive (#21)

Wake Forest Deficiencies
Wake Forest has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Wake Forest offense is really bad (#112)
Wake Forest Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#103)
Wake Forest offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#116)
Wake Forest run game is really bad (#107)
Wake Forest pass game is really bad (#107)


  
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez315359%343316.5
Max Johnson91182%103109.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June2320018.750
Giovanni Lopez277412.712
Caleb Hood154613.19
Davion Gause154312.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp10149214.939
Chris Culliver489122.351
Javarius Green688014.739
Jake Johnson43218.011

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Simpson (Tr)224100
Khmori House (Tr)182010
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)162100
Kaleb Cost130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)82220
Andrew Simpson (Tr)224100
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)162100
Joseph Mupoyi (Tr)20010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)80003
Marcus Allen80003
Jaiden Patterson60001

Wake Forest's OC Rob Ezell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)548564%697138.2
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)3475%421010.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne2524749.985
Robby Ashford (Tr)3412933.841
Ty Clark III185603.17
JaMario Clements (Tr)123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)12248020.770
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)8149118.651
Eni Falayi (Tr)594018.842
Micah Mays Jr.459014.826

View Wake Forest's Full Roster
Wake Forest's DC Scottie Hazelton
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen232002
Dylan Hazen194010
Aiden Hall172000
Davaughn Patterson161014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)155330
Jayden Loving (Tr)105210
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)52110
Mateen Ibirogba72110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson161014
Nick Andersen232002
Zach Lohavichan63012