North Carolina at Wake Forest - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons  Wake Forest logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
Wake Forest -3.5 (37.5) (-170)  Open: -6.5 | 38.5
Wake Forest 28 - North Carolina: 12  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Wake Forest -13.5  (SP+ WAKE -12)

Projected Score: UNC: 14 - WAKE: 27 (41)
WAKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 69 miles
Demon Deacons (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.052.5W 43 - 29OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)19.347% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)24.544% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)28.143% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)22.148% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WAKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1319.317.542%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
WAKE Defense1222.117.350.7%4.121.4 - - - - - 44%56%48%53%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1324.52340.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
WAKE Offense1228.128.341.9%3.21.8223721312403.648%52%43%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Wake Forest1228:5121.839%64%5.145.91.81.44.91.7229
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
WAKE Defense1244% (6)48% (110) - - - - .18 (101)3.13 (88)80% (112)8% (110)0.96 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
WAKE Offense1248% (86)43% (79)36.4131.43.618 (78).05 (106)3 (79)81% (18)10% (70)0.92 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
WAKE Defense1256% (129)53% (133) - - - - - - 11 (52).36 (116)1.3 (2)26% (130)40% (132).41 (106)4% (131)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
WAKE Offense1252% (50)41% (75)20.733.6240.17.211.617 (79)13 (103).23 (83)1.5 (115)31% (63)28% (102).15 (125)7% (93)1.9 (103)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.60  #72
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32  #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.60   Wake Forest: 9.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6   Wake Forest: 5.7




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 9.215  #48
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 11.98  #75
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 4.25  #18
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7  #52
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Wake Forest 27
North Carolina 14


Projected Total Points: 41
Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Wake Forest28North Carolina12Wake Forest -3.5Wake Forest37.5Over
202411/16North Carolina31Wake Forest24North Carolina -10.5Wake Forest64.5Under
202211/12Wake Forest34North Carolina36Wake Forest -4.5North Carolina79.0Under
202111/06North Carolina58Wake Forest55North Carolina -2.5North Carolina78.0Over
202011/14North Carolina59Wake Forest53North Carolina -13Wake Forest70.5Over
201909/13Wake Forest24North Carolina18Wake Forest -3Wake Forest65.0Under
201510/17North Carolina50Wake Forest14North Carolina -14North Carolina53.5Over
201209/08Wake Forest28North Carolina27
201110/29North Carolina49Wake Forest24
200710/27Wake Forest37North Carolina10
200610/28North Carolina17Wake Forest24
200411/13Wake Forest24North Carolina31
200311/08North Carolina42Wake Forest34
200210/26Wake Forest31North Carolina0
200111/10North Carolina31Wake Forest32
200009/08Wake Forest14North Carolina35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest744 Overs
North Carolina933 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 54 - 34 - 30 - 0
Road Teams5 - 113 - 40 - 03 - 4

(#72) UNC at (#48) WAKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCWAKE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #72 #48
SP+SP+ #91 #52
Perf GradeGrade #83 #63
OffenseOff #99 #103
DefenseDef #52 #28
Spec TeamsST #70 #11
TalentTal #17 #35
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #65
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffWAKE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #99 #28
SuccessSuc #80 #134
ExplosiveExp #39 #12
PPAPPA #65 #118
PowerPwr #78 #18
SP+SP+ #123 #34
Pts POPPO #52 #99
HavocHav #49 #130
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #108 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #110
Run ExplRExp #36 #58
PPAExp #14 #101
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #88
Stuff RateStuff #19 #98
TackleTak -  #91
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #91 #23
Pass SuccessPSuc #114 #133
Pass ExplPExl #29 #2
PPAExp #101 #116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #26
F7 HavocF7 #54 #110
DB HavocDB #60 #131
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #103 #52
SuccessSuc #81 #53
ExplosiveExp #111 #66
PPAPPA #104 #70
PowerPwr #75 #62
SP+SP+ #70 #58
Pts POPPO #121 #90
HavocHav #82 #90
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #99 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #82
Run ExplRExp #88 #29
PPAExp #106 #88
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #79 #121
Stuff RateStuff #55 #126
TackleTak -  #71
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #100 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #26
Pass ExplPExl #115 #125
PPAExp #83 #64
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #39
F7 HavocF7 #70 #83
DB HavocDB #93 #103
Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Wake Forest -3.5 (37.5)
Wake Forest won vs North Carolina this year (28-12)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat North Carolina last year (28-12)
North Carolina beat Wake Forest in 2024 (31-24)

  
UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005

WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)19132259%24721287.7
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)13055494.343
Ty Clark III7532334.315
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)40611315.393
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)30416213.951
Sawyer Racanelli (Tr)18315117.562

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen1077207
Davaughn Patterson804049
Dylan Hazen739053
Aiden Hall738023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515790
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)399680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)379540
Dallas Afalava (Tr)336481
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson804049
Karon Prunty (Tr)402118
Nick Andersen1077207