North Carolina Tar Heels at UCF Knights
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -6.5 (48.5) (-250) Open: -3.5
Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL
Tar Heels (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
UCF coming off BYE
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -7.5 (SP+ UCF -4)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - UCF: 27 (46)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 520 miles
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -7.5 (SP+ UCF -4)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - UCF: 27 (46)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 520 miles
Knights (2 - 0) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 43 - 9 (43 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 43 - 9 (43 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
| North Carolina's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Mon 9/1 | North Carolina vs TCU | +3.0 | 59.5 | L 14 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | North Carolina at Charlotte | -16.5 | 49.5 | W 20 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | North Carolina vs Richmond | -24.5 | 47.5 | W 41 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | North Carolina at UCF | +6.5 | 48.5 | ||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/4 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 10/17 | North Carolina at California | +9 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | North Carolina vs Virginia | +4.5 | |||||
| Fri 10/31 | North Carolina at Syracuse | +7 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | North Carolina vs Stanford | -6 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +3 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | North Carolina vs Duke | +1 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | North Carolina at NC State | +9.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| UCF's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/28 | UCF vs Jacksonville State | -16.5 | 53.5 | W 17 - 10 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | UCF vs North Carolina A&T | -38.0 | 51.0 | W 68 - 7 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/20 | UCF vs North Carolina | -6.5 | 48.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | UCF at Kansas State | +2.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | UCF vs Kansas | +1 | |||||
| Sat 10/11 | UCF at Cincinnati | +9.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/18 | UCF vs West Virginia | -2 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/1 | UCF at Baylor | +8 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | UCF vs Houston | -4 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | UCF at Texas Tech | +19.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | UCF vs Oklahoma State | -14.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | UCF at BYU | +9 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #98 (.11) | 38% (105) | 25 | 36% (116) | 2.73 (94) | 130 | 41% (86) | 149 | 4.15 (62) | #43 (.05) | 38% (63) | 19 | 32% (20) | 44% (98) | 1.73 (10) | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 |
| UCF | #37 (.32) | 41% (90) | 42.5 | 38% (107) | 2.52 (111) | 233 | 44% (68) | 259 | 4.25 (53) | #25 (-) | 36% (40) | 8.5 | 39% (70) | 31% (21) | 2.13 (18) | 67.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||
| UCF | #58 (.21) | 46% (28) | 52% (8) | 3.62 (2) | 248 | 38% (103) | 200 | 3.75 (86) | #63 (.16) | 40% (45) | 37% (12) | 42% (84) | 4.37 (118) | 54.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 25 | 20 | 38.2% | 4.15 | 1.3 | 14 | 279 | 130 | 149 | 4.3 | 57% | 43% | 36% | 41% | 17% | .11 |
| UCF Defense | 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 35.6% | 2.13 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 60% | 39% | 39% | 31% | 24% | - |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 19 | 3 | 38.2% | 1.73 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 53% | 32% | 44% | 14% | .05 |
| UCF Offense | 2 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 41% | 4.25 | 0.5 | 22 | 492 | 233 | 259 | 6.9 | 46% | 54% | 38% | 44% | 12% | .32 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3 | 26:30 | 13.7 | 33% | 67% | 4 | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 34.1 |
| UCF | 2 | 27:58 | 21.5 | 46% | 100% | 7.5 | 67.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 2 | 1 | 32.5 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 57% (29) | 36% (116) | 30.7 | 130.3 | 4.3 | 4 (79) | .1 (84) | 2.73 (94) | 67% (86) | 13% (127) | 1.13 (38) |
| UCF Defense | 2 | 60% (125) | 39% (70) | - | - | - | - | .08 (72) | 2.69 (59) | 71% (72) | 16% (12) | 1.22 (114) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 47% (52) | 32% (20) | - | - | - | - | -.13 (17) | 1.54 (4) | 86% (112) | 7% (106) | 0.82 (41) |
| UCF Offense | 2 | 46% (95) | 38% (107) | 34 | 233 | 6.9 | 7 (38) | .17 (56) | 2.52 (111) | 75% (52) | 9% (71) | 1.62 (2) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 43% (104) | 41% (86) | 13.3 | 21.7 | 148.7 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 4 (72) | 2 (60) | .13 (106) | 1.6 (46) | 28% (49) | 30% (84) | .38 (58) | 4% (39) | 2.2 (42) |
| UCF Defense | 2 | 39% (12) | 31% (21) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 (56) | -.12 (13) | 1 (4) | 36% (40) | 28% (62) | .17 (48) | 9% (19) | 1.4 (9) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 53% (88) | 44% (98) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (12) | .21 (67) | 1.4 (44) | 33% (73) | 30% (75) | .27 (67) | 6% (56) | 2 (74) |
| UCF Offense | 2 | 54% (39) | 44% (68) | 18 | 28.5 | 259 | 9.1 | 14.4 | 2 (102) | 0 (1) | .44 (37) | 1.9 (11) | 34% (106) | 33% (54) | .63 (26) | 3% (30) | 2.5 (12) |
North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 3.75 UCF: 9.51
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1 UCF: 4.5
North Carolina: 3.75 UCF: 9.51
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1 UCF: 4.5
UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 9.51 #54
UCF's Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
UCF's Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
UCF's Power Rating: 9.51 #54
UCF's Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
UCF's Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 27
North Carolina 19
Total Points: 46
UCF 27
North Carolina 19
Total Points: 46
UCF Scoring
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.5
Defense: 8.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5
UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 42.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.5
Defense: 8.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5
UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 0 | 0 | 0 Overs |
| North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 |
(#70) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has won 2 straight
North Carolina has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has won 2 straight
North Carolina has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | UCF | UNC |
| OverallOver | #28 | #42 |
| OffenseOff | #52 | #71 |
| DefenseDef | #29 | #30 |
| Special TeamsST | #3 | #72 |
| PassingPass | #71 | #62 |
| RushingRush | #16 | #100 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #57 | #46 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #57 | #10 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #67 | #71 |
| TacklingTkl | #53 | #27 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #31 | #37 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #6 | #35 |
| Coverage DefCov | #66 | #39 |
(#54) UCF Info
Power Rating: 9.51 #54
Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.25 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
UCF has won 2 straight
UCF has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
UCF Notes
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds
UCF Highlights
UCF in Undefeated
UCF is Undefeated at Home
UCF offense is explosive (#3)
UCF offense is good on 3rd downs
UCF defense is really good in red zone (#18)
UCF has a good pass defense (#21)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)
UCF Secondary is very good (#19)
UCF has a great TO Margin (#11)
UCF Deficiencies
UCF Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#108)
UCF run game is really bad (#107)
Power Rating: 9.51 #54
Offense Rating: 12.94 #68
Defense Rating: 3.42 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #59
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.25 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
UCF has won 2 straight
UCF has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
UCF Notes
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds
UCF Highlights
UCF in Undefeated
UCF is Undefeated at Home
UCF offense is explosive (#3)
UCF offense is good on 3rd downs
UCF defense is really good in red zone (#18)
UCF has a good pass defense (#21)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)
UCF Secondary is very good (#19)
UCF has a great TO Margin (#11)
UCF Deficiencies
UCF Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#108)
UCF run game is really bad (#107)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Lopez | 31 | 53 | 59% | 343 | 3 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Max Johnson | 9 | 11 | 82% | 103 | 1 | 0 | 9.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demon June | 23 | 200 | 1 | 8.7 | 50 |
| Giovanni Lopez | 27 | 74 | 1 | 2.7 | 12 |
| Caleb Hood | 15 | 46 | 1 | 3.1 | 9 |
| Davion Gause | 15 | 43 | 1 | 2.9 | 12 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipp | 10 | 149 | 2 | 14.9 | 39 |
| Chris Culliver | 4 | 89 | 1 | 22.3 | 51 |
| Javarius Green | 6 | 88 | 0 | 14.7 | 39 |
| Jake Johnson | 4 | 32 | 1 | 8.0 | 11 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khmori House (Tr) | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Cost | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Mupoyi (Tr) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaddeus Dixon (Tr) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Allen | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaiden Patterson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven Jackson (Tr) | 29 | 45 | 64% | 471 | 2 | 0 | 10.5 |
| Cam Fancher (Tr) | 5 | 9 | 56% | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Nixon (Tr) | 6 | 150 | 2 | 25.0 | 87 |
| Myles Montgomery | 29 | 114 | 0 | 3.9 | 15 |
| Jacurri Brown | 5 | 106 | 2 | 21.2 | 60 |
| Cam Fancher (Tr) | 4 | 39 | 0 | 9.8 | 25 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr) | 7 | 117 | 0 | 16.7 | 41 |
| Myles Montgomery | 4 | 103 | 0 | 25.8 | 64 |
| DJ Black | 6 | 86 | 1 | 14.3 | 33 |
| Dylan Wade (Tr) | 4 | 54 | 1 | 13.5 | 39 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kozlowski (Tr) | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Jackson | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lewis Carter (Tr) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dunnam (Tr) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Lora (Tr) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Horace Lockett (Tr) | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nyjalik Kelly | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Malachi Lawrence | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Bell (Tr) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Malachi Lawrence | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Cole Kozlowski (Tr) | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |