North Carolina at UCF Game Matchup

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL

Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)

UCF coming off BYE
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -0.5 (SP+ UNC -1.5)
Projected Score: UNC: 28 - UCF: 27 (58)
UNC Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
UNC Travel: 520 miles

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#88)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	-1.5	57.5
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-19.5
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-25.5
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	-0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+21
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	-1.5
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	-4.5
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+6
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-10
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	-6.5
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+1.5
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Wed 8/27	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-22
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	+0.5
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+19
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+2.5
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+8
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+13
Sat 11/8	UCF vs Houston	-0.5
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+16.5
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-2
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+14.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	30.9	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	28.1	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	30.9	27.2	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
UCF Defense	12	26.9	23	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	28.1	20.8	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
UCF Offense	12	30.4	32.9	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.77 #62
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 1.77 UCF: 1.185

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.0 UCF: 0.4

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 1.185 #75
UCF's Offense Rating: 11.99 #82
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.02 #69
2025 Talent Rating: 700.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #27
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 774.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 28
UCF 27

Projected Total Points: 58

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	0	0	0 Overs
North Carolina	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#62) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.77 #62
Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74
Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina Notes
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9

North Carolina Ratings Matchup UCF

Power #62

#75

Off #61

#82

Def #62

#69

Talent #35

#72

SP+ #54

#61

SP+ Off #39

#57

SP+ Def #74

#61

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | UCF
Depth Chart: UNC | UCF
Rosters: UNC | UCF

(#75) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.185 #75
Offense Rating: 11.99 #82
Defense Rating: 15.02 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61
Talent Rating: 700.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #27
Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF Notes
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.
(4/5) Def bad LY, replacing most. 15 portal adds
(4/5) New staff, over 50% new roster. We'll see
(4/5) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds
(3/21) RB Monty back (#2 LY), Nixon (WMU) added
(3/21) New DC Grinch fired from USC
(3/21) HC Frost is back. UCF in new conf/reality

North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Max Johnson	12	19	63%	71	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45
Caleb Hood	18	81	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36
Aziah Johnson (Tr)	16	276	2	17.3	52
Chris Culliver	6	135	1	22.5	50
Jordan Shipp	9	114	1	12.7	22

View North Carolina's Full Roster

North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Gavin Gibson (Tr)	52	7	0	1	3
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)	49	6	1	3	3
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	45	11	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Pryce Yates (Tr)	21	7	4	5	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	45	11	3	0	0
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)	8	3	2	1	0
C.J. Mims (Tr)	21	4	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)	43	2	0	0	10
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Khmori House (Tr)	33	1	0	1	4

UCF's OC Steve Cooper

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Jacurri Brown	34	66	52%	387	1	4	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jacurri Brown	53	401	4	7.6	67
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Myles Montgomery	51	293	3	5.7	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Wade (Tr)	29	374	2	12.9	44
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	9	74	0	8.2	16
Marcus Burke (Tr)	8	69	2	8.6	20
Myles Montgomery	3	66	1	22.0	49

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4
Keli Lawson (Tr)	40	2	0	0	4
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Sincere Edwards (Tr)	17	6	3	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	34	1	6
DJ Bell (Tr)	16	0	5
Keli Lawson (Tr)	40	2	4