North Carolina at UCF - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -7 (46.5) (-245) Open: -3.5
UCF 34 - North Carolina: 9

Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

UCF coming off BYE
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -3.5 (SP+ UCF -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 21 - UCF: 25 (46)
UCF Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 520 miles

Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	+3.0	59.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-16.5	49.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-24.5	47.5	W 41 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	+7.0	46.5	L 9 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+15.5	47.5	L 10 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	+7.5	45.5	L 18 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	+12.5	51.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-8.5	41.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+3.5	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+6.5	50.5	L 25 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+7.0	48.5	L 19 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State	-16.5	53.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T	-38.0	51.0	W 68 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina	-7.0	46.5	W 34 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State	+5.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas	+4.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati	+10.0	55.5	L 11 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	46.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	L 3 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/7	UCF vs Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State	-13.5	47.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	19.3	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	24.5	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	24.3	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	23.6	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
UCF Defense	12	23.6	15.7	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
UCF Offense	12	24.3	32.6	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.60 #72
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32 #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.60 UCF: -0.475

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6 UCF: -1.2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -0.475 #79
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79 #94
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 25
North Carolina 21

Projected Total Points: 46

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	UCF	34	North Carolina	9	UCF -7	UCF	46.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	0 Overs
North Carolina	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#72) UNC at (#79) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#72	#79
SP+SP+	#91	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#83	#81
OffenseOff	#99	#123
DefenseDef	#52	#21
Spec TeamsST	#70	#32
TalentTal	#17	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#29	#32

North Carolina Notes(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report

UCF Notes(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#21
SuccessSuc	#80	#45
ExplosiveExp	#39	#95
PPAPPA	#65	#63
PowerPwr	#78	#66
SP+SP+	#123	#51
Pts POPPO	#52	#118
HavocHav	#49	#64

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#108	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#12
Run ExplRExp	#36	#90
PPAExp	#14	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#17
TackleTak	-	#31

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#30
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#64
PPAExp	#101	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#49	#33
F7 HavocF7	#54	#28
DB HavocDB	#60	#118

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#52
SuccessSuc	#28	#53
ExplosiveExp	#73	#66
PPAPPA	#58	#70
PowerPwr	#94	#62
SP+SP+	#98	#58
Pts POPPO	#86	#90
HavocHav	#51	#90

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#68	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#82
Run ExplRExp	#11	#29
PPAExp	#7	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#121
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#126
TackleTak	-	#71

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#125
PPAExp	#123	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#44	#39
F7 HavocF7	#66	#83
DB HavocDB	#48	#103

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
UCF -7.0 (46.5)
UCF won vs North Carolina this year (34-9)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat North Carolina last year (34-9)

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	170	261	65%	1747	10	5	6.7
Max Johnson	54	87	62%	437	2	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demon June	84	464	2	5.5	50
Benjamin Hall (Tr)	71	274	2	3.9	18
Davion Gause	61	258	3	4.2	25
Giovanni Lopez	86	133	3	1.5	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Shipp	60	671	6	11.2	55
Kobe Paysour	35	438	1	12.5	44
Demon June	17	159	1	9.4	72
Javarius Green	13	150	0	11.5	39

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khmori House (Tr)	73	3	1	6	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	59	9	5	6	1
Will Hardy	51	2	0	0	0
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5	0
Tyler Thompson	26	8	7	1	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	59	9	5	6	1
C.J. Mims (Tr)	41	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Marcus Allen	35	2	1	8
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)	20	2	0	6
Jaiden Patterson	33	2	0	5

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	200	315	64%	2151	10	8	6.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)	41	72	57%	333	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Myles Montgomery	143	705	4	4.9	45
Jaden Nixon (Tr)	71	554	7	7.8	87
Cam Fancher (Tr)	31	170	1	5.5	25
Jacurri Brown	16	142	2	8.9	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade (Tr)	43	523	5	12.2	83
Waden Charles	26	290	0	11.2	30
DJ Black	22	273	2	12.4	82

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	60	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Lawrence	28	11	7	3	2
Lewis Carter (Tr)	95	4	2	1	1
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)	81	8	2	1	3
Nyjalik Kelly	45	8	2	8	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)	27	0	8
DJ Bell (Tr)	17	0	4
Antoine Jackson	39	1	4