North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Virginia -3.5 (58.5) (-210) Open: -5.5 | 59.5
North Carolina 41 - Virginia: 14 (ACC)
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
UNC coming off BYE
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -3 (SP+ UNC -10)
Projected Score: UNC: 29 - UVA: 26 (54)
UVA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 150 miles
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -3 (SP+ UNC -10)
Projected Score: UNC: 29 - UVA: 26 (54)
UVA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 150 miles
Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
| North Carolina's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | North Carolina at Minnesota | -2.0 | 52.5 | W 19 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | North Carolina vs Charlotte | -21.5 | 47.5 | W 38 - 20 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -37.5 | 57.5 | W 45 - 10 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | North Carolina vs James Madison | -10.0 | 48.0 | L 50 - 70 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | North Carolina at Duke | -1.0 | 55.5 | L 20 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +2.5 | 63.0 | L 24 - 34 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | +3.5 | 60.5 | L 34 - 41 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/26 | North Carolina at Virginia | +3.5 | 58.5 | W 41 - 14 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | North Carolina at Florida State | -2.5 | 50.5 | W 35 - 11 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -10.5 | 64.5 | W 31 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | North Carolina at Boston College | -2.0 | 50.5 | L 21 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | North Carolina vs NC State | -2.5 | 54.5 | L 30 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 12/28 | North Carolina vs UConn | -2.0 | 53.5 | L 14 - 27 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Virginia's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Virginia vs Richmond | -21 | |||||
| Sat 9/7 | Virginia at Wake Forest | -1.5 | 55.5 | W 31 - 30 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Virginia vs Maryland | -2.5 | 55.5 | L 13 - 27 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Virginia at Coastal Carolina | -3.5 | 52.0 | W 43 - 24 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Virginia vs Boston College | -2.0 | 52.5 | W 24 - 14 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Virginia vs Louisville | +7.0 | 54.0 | L 20 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Virginia at Clemson | +20.0 | 57.5 | L 31 - 48 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Virginia vs North Carolina | -3.5 | 58.5 | L 14 - 41 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +7.5 | 56.5 | W 24 - 19 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Virginia at Notre Dame | +20.5 | 51.0 | L 14 - 35 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | Virginia vs SMU | +11.5 | 54.5 | L 7 - 33 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +4.5 | 44.5 | L 17 - 37 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 30.9 | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 28.1 | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| UVA | #102 (.13) | 40% (103) | 22.7 | 43% (77) | 3.29 (25) | 133 | 37% (113) | 229 | 3.47 (106) | #116 (.27) | 43% (80) | 28.8 | 44% (77) | 42% (77) | 4.04 (94) | 45.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||
| UVA | #102 (.13) | 40% (103) | 43% (77) | 3.29 (25) | 133 | 37% (113) | 229 | 3.47 (106) | #116 (.27) | 43% (80) | 44% (77) | 42% (77) | 4.04 (94) | 45.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 13 | 30.9 | 27.2 | 42% | 4.08 | 1.2 | 20 | 391 | 175 | 216 | 4.9 | 52% | 47% | 47% | 37% | 15% | .2 |
| UVA Defense | 12 | 28.8 | 25.3 | 42.6% | 4.04 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 49% | 50% | 44% | 42% | 15% | .27 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 13 | 28.1 | 20.8 | 40.5% | 4.01 | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | - | 53% | 46% | 44% | 37% | 15% | .17 |
| UVA Offense | 12 | 22.7 | 18.7 | 40% | 3.47 | 1.6 | 19 | 362 | 133 | 229 | 3.7 | 48% | 52% | 43% | 37% | 18% | .13 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 13 | 27:42 | 20.2 | 40% | 50% | 6.8 | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 6 | 29.1 |
| Virginia | 12 | 29:53 | 19.3 | 34% | 52% | 5.2 | 45.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 29.5 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 13 | 52% (53) | 47% (34) | 35.9 | 175.2 | 4.9 | 26 (36) | .26 (14) | 3.32 (22) | 70% (89) | 9% (54) | 1.06 (36) |
| UVA Defense | 12 | 49% (53) | 44% (77) | - | - | - | - | .17 (91) | 3.29 (112) | 77% (89) | 9% (104) | 0.99 (69) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 13 | 53% (92) | 44% (82) | - | - | - | - | .16 (88) | 3.39 (121) | 86% (130) | 9% (83) | 0.89 (29) |
| UVA Offense | 12 | 48% (84) | 43% (77) | 35.9 | 132.8 | 3.7 | 14 (98) | .16 (50) | 3.29 (25) | 73% (77) | 11% (96) | 0.91 (92) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 13 | 47% (82) | 37% (114) | 16.8 | 29 | 215.9 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 17 (79) | 8 (40) | .17 (101) | 1.7 (29) | 32% (74) | 29% (94) | .32 (78) | 6% (60) | 2.1 (33) |
| UVA Defense | 12 | 50% (83) | 42% (77) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 (76) | .37 (121) | 1.6 (84) | 32% (67) | 32% (84) | .43 (110) | 6% (67) | 2.1 (82) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 13 | 46% (38) | 37% (26) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 (76) | .22 (64) | 1.8 (125) | 32% (66) | 26% (12) | .23 (35) | 5% (103) | 2.2 (99) |
| UVA Offense | 12 | 52% (52) | 37% (113) | 20.5 | 33.4 | 229 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 16 (87) | 14 (115) | .11 (122) | 1.5 (86) | 33% (101) | 26% (115) | .17 (120) | 7% (100) | 1.7 (129) |
North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53 Virginia: -1.05
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Virginia: -5.1
North Carolina: -1.53 Virginia: -1.05
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Virginia: -5.1
Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Virginia's Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8
North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8
North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 29
Virginia 26
Total Points: 54
North Carolina 29
Virginia 26
Total Points: 54
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3
Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3
Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/26 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | 41 | North Carolina | Virginia -3.5 | North Carolina | 58.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 10/21 | North Carolina | 27 | Virginia | 31 | Virginia | North Carolina -24 | Virginia | 58.0 | Push |
| 2022 | 11/05 | Virginia | 28 | North Carolina | 31 | North Carolina | North Carolina -7 | Virginia | 61.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 09/18 | North Carolina | 59 | Virginia | 39 | North Carolina | North Carolina -7.5 | North Carolina | 67.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/31 | Virginia | 44 | North Carolina | 41 | Virginia | North Carolina -7.0 | Virginia | 0 | |
| 2019 | 11/02 | North Carolina | 31 | Virginia | 38 | Virginia | Virginia -1 | Virginia | 48.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 10/27 | Virginia | 31 | North Carolina | 21 | Virginia | Virginia -7.5 | Virginia | 51.0 | Over |
| 2017 | 10/14 | North Carolina | 14 | Virginia | 20 | Virginia | Virginia -3 | Virginia | 54.5 | Under |
| 2016 | 10/22 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | 35 | North Carolina | North Carolina -9 | North Carolina | 68.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 10/24 | North Carolina | 26 | Virginia | 13 | North Carolina | North Carolina -12 | North Carolina | 58.0 | Under |
| 2014 | 10/25 | Virginia | 27 | North Carolina | 28 | North Carolina | Virginia -7.5 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/09 | North Carolina | 45 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | North Carolina -14 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/15 | Virginia | 13 | North Carolina | 37 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2011 | 09/17 | North Carolina | 28 | Virginia | 17 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2010 | 10/16 | Virginia | 10 | North Carolina | 44 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2009 | 10/03 | North Carolina | 3 | Virginia | 16 | Virginia | ||||
| 2008 | 10/18 | Virginia | 16 | North Carolina | 13 | Virginia | ||||
| 2007 | 09/15 | North Carolina | 20 | Virginia | 22 | Virginia | ||||
| 2006 | 10/19 | Virginia | 23 | North Carolina | 0 | Virginia | ||||
| 2005 | 10/22 | North Carolina | 7 | Virginia | 5 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2004 | 09/11 | Virginia | 56 | North Carolina | 24 | Virginia | ||||
| 2003 | 10/04 | North Carolina | 13 | Virginia | 38 | Virginia | ||||
| 2002 | 10/19 | Virginia | 37 | North Carolina | 27 | Virginia | ||||
| 2001 | 10/13 | North Carolina | 30 | Virginia | 24 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2000 | 10/27 | Virginia | 17 | North Carolina | 6 | Virginia |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 13 | 6 | 3 Overs |
| North Carolina | 12 | 6 | 5 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 13 - 12 | 6 - 6 | 4 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 12 - 13 | 6 - 6 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 4 |
(#68) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: -1.53 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 4 straight
North Carolina has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)
North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot
North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)
Power Rating: -1.53 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 4 straight
North Carolina has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)
North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot
North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | UVA | UNC |
| OverallOver | #82 | #51 |
| OffenseOff | #87 | #56 |
| DefenseDef | #89 | #77 |
| Special TeamsST | #38 | #9 |
| PassingPass | #97 | #82 |
| RushingRush | #62 | #13 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #46 | #29 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #104 | #47 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #81 | #67 |
| TacklingTkl | #97 | #36 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #81 | #65 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #63 | #56 |
| Coverage DefCov | #91 | #83 |
Rematch from Week 9
Virginia -3.5 (58.5)
North Carolina won at Virginia this year (41-14)
Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: UNC | UVA
Depth Chart: UNC | UVA
Rosters: UNC | UVA
(#69) Virginia Info
Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has lost 2 straight
Virginia has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Virginia Notes
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia commits very few Penalties (#49)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a really bad Offense at Home
Virginia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Virginia offense is really bad (#26)
Virginia offense is not Explosive (#22)
Virginia offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#54)
Virginia pass game is really bad (#45)
Virginia offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Virginia Does Not Stuff Runs (#32)
Virginia has a bad defensive line (#63)
Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has lost 2 straight
Virginia has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Virginia Notes
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia commits very few Penalties (#49)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a really bad Offense at Home
Virginia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Virginia offense is really bad (#26)
Virginia offense is not Explosive (#22)
Virginia offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#54)
Virginia pass game is really bad (#45)
Virginia offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Virginia Does Not Stuff Runs (#32)
Virginia has a bad defensive line (#63)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacolby Criswell (Tr) | 186 | 320 | 58% | 2459 | 15 | 6 | 7.7 |
| Conner Harrell | 21 | 37 | 57% | 282 | 2 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 281 | 1660 | 15 | 5.9 | 75 |
| Davion Gause | 67 | 326 | 4 | 4.9 | 21 |
| Jacolby Criswell (Tr) | 71 | 103 | 3 | 1.5 | 20 |
| Charleston French | 10 | 84 | 1 | 8.4 | 45 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Jones | 36 | 582 | 6 | 16.2 | 53 |
| John Copenhaver | 40 | 414 | 4 | 10.4 | 35 |
| Omarion Hampton | 38 | 373 | 2 | 9.8 | 49 |
| Kobe Paysour | 21 | 365 | 0 | 17.4 | 36 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antavious Lane | 74 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Power Echols | 73 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Amare Campbell | 69 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Jakeen Harris (Tr) | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Atkinson | 35 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Kaimon Rucker | 30 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Amare Campbell | 69 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Desmond Evans | 34 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alijah Huzzie | 36 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Power Echols | 73 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Jakeen Harris (Tr) | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Colandrea | 198 | 320 | 62% | 2125 | 13 | 11 | 6.6 |
| Tony Muskett | 45 | 76 | 59% | 545 | 3 | 3 | 7.2 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Pace | 114 | 499 | 3 | 4.4 | 43 |
| Xavier Brown | 80 | 488 | 1 | 6.1 | 75 |
| Anthony Colandrea | 128 | 277 | 2 | 2.2 | 35 |
| Noah Vaughn | 36 | 120 | 0 | 3.3 | 13 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Fields | 55 | 808 | 5 | 14.7 | 45 |
| Tyler Neville (Tr) | 37 | 394 | 2 | 10.6 | 39 |
| Trell Harris (Tr) | 15 | 221 | 2 | 14.7 | 45 |
| Kobe Pace | 21 | 189 | 0 | 9.0 | 52 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Sanker | 98 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Kamren Robinson | 64 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Trey McDonald | 57 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jermarian Jackson | 55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Robinson | 64 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Kameron Butler | 43 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Jonas Sanker | 98 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| James Jackson | 45 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton Shine (Tr) | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Jermarian Jackson | 55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Jonas Sanker | 98 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 |