North Carolina at Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers(#16)

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Virginia -3.5 (58.5) (-210) Open: -5.5 | 59.5
North Carolina 41 - Virginia: 14 (ACC)

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC coming off BYE
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -3 (SP+ UNC -10)
Projected Score: UNC: 29 - UVA: 26 (55)
UVA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 150 miles

Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia vs Richmond	-21
Sat 9/7	Virginia at Wake Forest	-1.5	55.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia vs Maryland	-2.5	55.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Virginia at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	52.0	W 43 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Virginia vs Boston College	-2.0	52.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Virginia vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Virginia at Clemson	+20.0	57.5	L 31 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia vs North Carolina	-3.5	58.5	L 14 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+7.5	56.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Virginia at Notre Dame	+20.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/23	Virginia vs SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+4.5	44.5	L 17 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	30.9	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	28.1	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)	22.7	43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)	28.8	44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	30.9	27.2	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
UVA Defense	12	28.8	25.3	42.6%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	42%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	28.1	20.8	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
UVA Offense	12	22.7	18.7	40%	3.47	1.6	19	362	133	229	3.7	48%	52%	43%	37%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
Virginia	12	29:53	19.3	34%	52%	5.2	45.3	1.6	1.3	4.8	1.8	0	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
UVA Defense	12	49% (53)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.29 (112)	77% (89)	9% (104)	0.99 (69)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)
UVA Offense	12	48% (84)	43% (77)	35.9	132.8	3.7	14 (98)	.16 (50)	3.29 (25)	73% (77)	11% (96)	0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
UVA Defense	12	50% (83)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (121)	1.6 (84)	32% (67)	32% (84)	.43 (110)	6% (67)	2.1 (82)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
UVA Offense	12	52% (52)	37% (113)	20.5	33.4	229	6.9	11.2	16 (87)	14 (115)	.11 (122)	1.5 (86)	33% (101)	26% (115)	.17 (120)	7% (100)	1.7 (129)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53 Virginia: -1.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Virginia: -5.1

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -1.05 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 29
Virginia 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 29
North Carolina 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 28
Virginia 22

Total Points: 50

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	North Carolina	16	Virginia	17	Virginia -12.5	North Carolina	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	Virginia	14	North Carolina	41	Virginia -3.5	North Carolina	58.5	Under
2023	10/21	North Carolina	27	Virginia	31	North Carolina -24	Virginia	58.0	Push
2022	11/05	Virginia	28	North Carolina	31	North Carolina -7	Virginia	61.5	Under
2021	09/18	North Carolina	59	Virginia	39	North Carolina -7.5	North Carolina	67.0	Over
2020	10/31	Virginia	44	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7.0	Virginia	0
2019	11/02	North Carolina	31	Virginia	38	Virginia -1	Virginia	48.0	Over
2018	10/27	Virginia	31	North Carolina	21	Virginia -7.5	Virginia	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	North Carolina	14	Virginia	20	Virginia -3	Virginia	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Virginia	14	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -9	North Carolina	68.5	Under
2015	10/24	North Carolina	26	Virginia	13	North Carolina -12	North Carolina	58.0	Under
2014	10/25	Virginia	27	North Carolina	28	Virginia -7.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/09	North Carolina	45	Virginia	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	0
2012	11/15	Virginia	13	North Carolina	37
2011	09/17	North Carolina	28	Virginia	17
2010	10/16	Virginia	10	North Carolina	44
2009	10/03	North Carolina	3	Virginia	16
2008	10/18	Virginia	16	North Carolina	13
2007	09/15	North Carolina	20	Virginia	22
2006	10/19	Virginia	23	North Carolina	0
2005	10/22	North Carolina	7	Virginia	5
2004	09/11	Virginia	56	North Carolina	24
2003	10/04	North Carolina	13	Virginia	38
2002	10/19	Virginia	37	North Carolina	27
2001	10/13	North Carolina	30	Virginia	24
2000	10/27	Virginia	17	North Carolina	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	14	6	3 Overs
North Carolina	12	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#68) UNC at (#69) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	UVA
Power RatePwr	#68	#69
SP+SP+	#49	#91
Perf GradeGrade	#74	#115
OffenseOff	#67	#109
DefenseDef	#97	#109
Spec TeamsST	#9	#44
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#22	#82

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Virginia Notes(12/17) Signed QB C Morris (N Tex/OU/TCU)
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
(8/19) QB Colandrea good find LY, portal WRs decent
Virginia Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Perf GradePerf	#67	#109
SuccessSuc	#80	#80
ExplosiveExp	#39	#87
PPAPPA	#65	#116
PowerPwr	#86	#96
SP+SP+	#38	#86
Pts POPPO	#52	#94
HavocHav	#49	#91

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#15	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#77
Run ExplRExp	#36	#69
PPAExp	#14	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#121
TackleTak	-	#112

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#84
PPAExp	#101	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#72
F7 HavocF7	#54	#104
DB HavocDB	#60	#67

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Perf GradePerf	#109	#97
SuccessSuc	#103	#53
ExplosiveExp	#105	#66
PPAPPA	#102	#70
PowerPwr	#84	#77
SP+SP+	#95	#64
Pts POPPO	#106	#90
HavocHav	#109	#90

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#84	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#82
Run ExplRExp	#92	#29
PPAExp	#50	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#25	#121
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#126
TackleTak	-	#40

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#125
PPAExp	#122	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#120	#64
F7 HavocF7	#96	#83
DB HavocDB	#100	#103

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Virginia -3.5 (58.5)
North Carolina won at Virginia this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	198	320	62%	2125	13	11	6.6
Tony Muskett	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace	114	499	3	4.4	43
Xavier Brown	80	488	1	6.1	75
Anthony Colandrea	128	277	2	2.2	35
Noah Vaughn	36	120	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Fields	55	808	5	14.7	45
Tyler Neville (Tr)	37	394	2	10.6	39
Trell Harris (Tr)	15	221	2	14.7	45
Kobe Pace	21	189	0	9.0	52

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Trey McDonald	57	3	1	1	1
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
James Jackson	45	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kempton Shine (Tr)	37	2	0	0	7
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4