Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC (ACC)
Cavaliers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 45 - 19 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 45 - 19 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Our Line: Virginia -4.5 (SP+ UVA -3.5)
Projected Score: UVA: 31 - UNC: 27 (58)
UVA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 150 miles
Projected Score: UVA: 31 - UNC: 27 (58)
UVA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 150 miles
Tar Heels (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
| Virginia's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -12.5 | 57.5 | W 48 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Virginia at NC State | +3.0 | 53.0 | L 31 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/13 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -30.5 | 54.5 | W 55 - 16 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Virginia vs Stanford | -15.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| Fri 9/26 | Virginia vs Florida State | +8.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Virginia at Louisville | +10.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Virginia vs Washington State | -19 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Virginia at North Carolina | -4.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Virginia at California | +2.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Virginia vs Wake Forest | -9 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Virginia at Duke | -1 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -16 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| North Carolina's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Mon 9/1 | North Carolina vs TCU | +3.0 | 59.5 | L 14 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | North Carolina at Charlotte | -16.5 | 49.5 | W 20 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | North Carolina vs Richmond | -24.5 | 47.5 | W 41 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | North Carolina at UCF | +6.5 | 48.5 | ||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/4 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 10/17 | North Carolina at California | +9 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | North Carolina vs Virginia | +4.5 | |||||
| Fri 10/31 | North Carolina at Syracuse | +7 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | North Carolina vs Stanford | -6 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +3 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | North Carolina vs Duke | +1 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | North Carolina at NC State | +9.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | #10 (.47) | 51% (26) | 44.7 | 56% (17) | 3.69 (17) | 271 | 47% (45) | 289 | 4.24 (54) | #75 (.14) | 37% (51) | 19.3 | 37% (52) | 37% (48) | 4.45 (104) | 35 | 0.7 | 1 |
| UNC | #98 (.11) | 38% (105) | 25 | 36% (116) | 2.73 (94) | 130 | 41% (86) | 149 | 4.15 (62) | #43 (.05) | 38% (63) | 19 | 32% (20) | 44% (98) | 1.73 (10) | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | #102 (.13) | 40% (103) | 43% (77) | 3.29 (25) | 133 | 37% (113) | 229 | 3.47 (106) | #116 (.27) | 43% (80) | 44% (77) | 42% (77) | 4.04 (94) | 45.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | ||
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 44.7 | 31 | 51.1% | 4.24 | 0.7 | 26 | 560 | 271 | 289 | 6.5 | 49% | 50% | 56% | 47% | 11% | .47 |
| UNC Defense | 3 | 19 | 27 | 38.2% | 1.73 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 53% | 32% | 44% | 14% | .05 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 19.3 | 35 | 36.7% | 4.45 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 55% | 45% | 37% | 37% | 17% | .14 |
| UNC Offense | 3 | 25 | 27.5 | 38.2% | 4.15 | 1.3 | 14 | 279 | 130 | 149 | 4.3 | 57% | 43% | 36% | 41% | 17% | .11 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 3 | 34:31 | 25.7 | 58% | 44% | 5 | 35 | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 | 33.4 |
| North Carolina | 3 | 26:30 | 13.7 | 33% | 67% | 4 | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 34.1 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 49% (77) | 56% (17) | 42 | 271 | 6.5 | 12 (3) | .55 (2) | 3.69 (17) | 86% (22) | 6% (21) | 1.31 (17) |
| UNC Defense | 3 | 47% (52) | 32% (20) | - | - | - | - | -.13 (17) | 1.54 (4) | 86% (112) | 7% (106) | 0.82 (41) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 55% (106) | 37% (52) | - | - | - | - | .1 (91) | 2.71 (63) | 50% (19) | 8% (99) | 1.16 (108) |
| UNC Offense | 3 | 57% (29) | 36% (116) | 30.7 | 130.3 | 4.3 | 4 (79) | .1 (84) | 2.73 (94) | 67% (86) | 13% (127) | 1.13 (38) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Offense | 3 | 50% (62) | 47% (45) | 25 | 38 | 289.3 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 4 (72) | 2 (60) | .45 (34) | 1.5 (68) | 30% (62) | 46% (11) | .63 (25) | 6% (79) | 1.6 (117) |
| UNC Defense | 3 | 53% (88) | 44% (98) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (12) | .21 (67) | 1.4 (44) | 33% (73) | 30% (75) | .27 (67) | 6% (56) | 2 (74) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA Defense | 3 | 45% (34) | 37% (48) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 (87) | .19 (62) | 1.5 (51) | 33% (68) | 19% (24) | .08 (30) | 9% (18) | 1.6 (24) |
| UNC Offense | 3 | 43% (104) | 41% (86) | 13.3 | 21.7 | 148.7 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 4 (72) | 2 (60) | .13 (106) | 1.6 (46) | 28% (49) | 30% (84) | .38 (58) | 4% (39) | 2.2 (42) |
Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Virginia's Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 13.69 North Carolina: 4.425
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 3.8 North Carolina: 0.1
Virginia: 13.69 North Carolina: 4.425
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 3.8 North Carolina: 0.1
North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.425 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.425 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35
Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35
Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 31
North Carolina 27
Total Points: 58
Virginia 31
North Carolina 27
Total Points: 58
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 27
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 27
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/26 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | 41 | North Carolina | Virginia -3.5 | North Carolina | 58.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 10/21 | North Carolina | 27 | Virginia | 31 | Virginia | North Carolina -24 | Virginia | 58.0 | Push |
| 2022 | 11/05 | Virginia | 28 | North Carolina | 31 | North Carolina | North Carolina -7 | Virginia | 61.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 09/18 | North Carolina | 59 | Virginia | 39 | North Carolina | North Carolina -7.5 | North Carolina | 67.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/31 | Virginia | 44 | North Carolina | 41 | Virginia | North Carolina -7.0 | Virginia | 0 | |
| 2019 | 11/02 | North Carolina | 31 | Virginia | 38 | Virginia | Virginia -1 | Virginia | 48.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 10/27 | Virginia | 31 | North Carolina | 21 | Virginia | Virginia -7.5 | Virginia | 51.0 | Over |
| 2017 | 10/14 | North Carolina | 14 | Virginia | 20 | Virginia | Virginia -3 | Virginia | 54.5 | Under |
| 2016 | 10/22 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | 35 | North Carolina | North Carolina -9 | North Carolina | 68.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 10/24 | North Carolina | 26 | Virginia | 13 | North Carolina | North Carolina -12 | North Carolina | 58.0 | Under |
| 2014 | 10/25 | Virginia | 27 | North Carolina | 28 | North Carolina | Virginia -7.5 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/09 | North Carolina | 45 | Virginia | 14 | North Carolina | North Carolina -14 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/15 | Virginia | 13 | North Carolina | 37 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2011 | 09/17 | North Carolina | 28 | Virginia | 17 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2010 | 10/16 | Virginia | 10 | North Carolina | 44 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2009 | 10/03 | North Carolina | 3 | Virginia | 16 | Virginia | ||||
| 2008 | 10/18 | Virginia | 16 | North Carolina | 13 | Virginia | ||||
| 2007 | 09/15 | North Carolina | 20 | Virginia | 22 | Virginia | ||||
| 2006 | 10/19 | Virginia | 23 | North Carolina | 0 | Virginia | ||||
| 2005 | 10/22 | North Carolina | 7 | Virginia | 5 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2004 | 09/11 | Virginia | 56 | North Carolina | 24 | Virginia | ||||
| 2003 | 10/04 | North Carolina | 13 | Virginia | 38 | Virginia | ||||
| 2002 | 10/19 | Virginia | 37 | North Carolina | 27 | Virginia | ||||
| 2001 | 10/13 | North Carolina | 30 | Virginia | 24 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2000 | 10/27 | Virginia | 17 | North Carolina | 6 | Virginia |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 12 | 6 | 3 Overs |
| Virginia | 13 | 6 | 5 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 13 - 12 | 6 - 6 | 4 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 12 - 13 | 6 - 6 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 4 |
(#42) Virginia Info
Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.24 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has lost 4 straight
Virginia has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Virginia Notes
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
(5/29) OL 4/5 back, took 7 portals. Lots of depth.
(5/29) Def pretty bad LY. Took 16 portals, 9 DBs
(5/21) Talent #'s impressive, 5th in ACC, big jump.
(5/17) Lowest SOS in P4 should lead to bowl
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has Really Good Running Game (#4)
Virginia offense is efficent (#26)
Virginia offense is explosive (#22)
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia offense is good on 3rd downs
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia Secondary is very good (#18)
Virginia has a great TO Margin (#28)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)
Power Rating: 13.69 #42
Offense Rating: 20.45 #31
Defense Rating: 6.76 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #56
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #60
Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.24 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Virginia has lost 4 straight
Virginia has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Virginia Notes
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
(5/29) OL 4/5 back, took 7 portals. Lots of depth.
(5/29) Def pretty bad LY. Took 16 portals, 9 DBs
(5/21) Talent #'s impressive, 5th in ACC, big jump.
(5/17) Lowest SOS in P4 should lead to bowl
Virginia Highlights
Virginia has Really Good Running Game (#4)
Virginia offense is efficent (#26)
Virginia offense is explosive (#22)
Virginia has a top Offensive Line (#17)
Virginia offense is good on 3rd downs
Virginia does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#11)
Virginia Secondary is very good (#18)
Virginia has a great TO Margin (#28)
Virginia Deficiencies
Virginia has a bad red zone defense (#104)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | UNC | UVA |
| OverallOver | #42 | #22 |
| OffenseOff | #71 | #24 |
| DefenseDef | #30 | #37 |
| Special TeamsST | #72 | #6 |
| PassingPass | #62 | #25 |
| RushingRush | #100 | #21 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #46 | #40 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #10 | #56 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #71 | #29 |
| TacklingTkl | #27 | #82 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #37 | #56 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #35 | #28 |
| Coverage DefCov | #39 | #34 |
(#70) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 4.425 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 3 straight
North Carolina has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: 4.425 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 3 straight
North Carolina has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Morris (Tr) | 62 | 89 | 70% | 670 | 4 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Daniel Kaelin (Tr) | 11 | 23 | 48% | 190 | 0 | 1 | 8.3 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J'mari Taylor (Tr) | 33 | 213 | 6 | 6.5 | 66 |
| Noah Vaughn | 22 | 170 | 0 | 7.7 | 54 |
| Harrison Waylee (Tr) | 17 | 169 | 4 | 9.9 | 97 |
| Chandler Morris (Tr) | 9 | 113 | 0 | 12.6 | 42 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trell Harris | 14 | 176 | 0 | 12.6 | 48 |
| Cameron Ross | 12 | 164 | 1 | 13.7 | 46 |
| Jahmal Edrine (Tr) | 11 | 123 | 1 | 11.2 | 18 |
| Kameron Courtney | 7 | 94 | 0 | 13.4 | 30 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Danley | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Neal (Tr) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Melton (Tr) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Koudelka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Maddox Marcellus (Tr) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Neal (Tr) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mitchell Melton (Tr) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavon Platt (Tr) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| McKale Boley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Karnley (Tr) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Lopez | 31 | 53 | 59% | 343 | 3 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Max Johnson | 9 | 11 | 82% | 103 | 1 | 0 | 9.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demon June | 23 | 200 | 1 | 8.7 | 50 |
| Giovanni Lopez | 27 | 74 | 1 | 2.7 | 12 |
| Caleb Hood | 15 | 46 | 1 | 3.1 | 9 |
| Davion Gause | 15 | 43 | 1 | 2.9 | 12 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipp | 10 | 149 | 2 | 14.9 | 39 |
| Chris Culliver | 4 | 89 | 1 | 22.3 | 51 |
| Javarius Green | 6 | 88 | 0 | 14.7 | 39 |
| Jake Johnson | 4 | 32 | 1 | 8.0 | 11 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khmori House (Tr) | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Cost | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Mupoyi (Tr) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaddeus Dixon (Tr) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Allen | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaiden Patterson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |