Duke at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Duke logo   Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels  North Carolina logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
North Carolina -9.5 (52.5) (-455)  Open: -9.5
North Carolina 47 - Duke: 45  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 6th straight game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -5.5  (SP+ UNC -1)
Projected Score: DUKE: 24 - UNC: 30 (54)
UNC Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
DUKE Travel: 9 miles
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Duke's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4 Duke vs Clemson+12.554.0W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Duke vs Lafayette-42.549.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Duke vs Northwestern-17.048.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 Duke at UConn-22.045.0W 41 - 7OY
Sat 9/30 Duke vs Notre Dame+5.552.5L 14 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Duke vs NC State-3.544.0W 24 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Duke at Florida State+14.049.0L 20 - 38ON
Sat 10/28 Duke at Louisville+5.047.0L 0 - 23UN
Thu 11/2 Duke vs Wake Forest-6.541.0W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Duke at North Carolina+9.552.5L 45 - 47OY
Sat 11/18 Duke at Virginia-4.048.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Duke vs Pittsburgh-4.540.5W 30 - 19OY
Sat 12/23 Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE.2444%34.647%3.4518442%2324.1.1844%29.444%45%3.9550.20.82.2
UNC.346%19.345%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%24.549%48%4.5155.311.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1334.63744.1%4.10.822416184232551%48%47%42%14%.24
UNC Defense1424.52648.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1329.427.544%3.952.2 - - - - - 43%56%44%45%20%.18
UNC Offense1419.32146.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1333:0521.742%58%5.250.20.82.25.22.8231.8
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1351%47%37.2184.2531.263.4580%7%1.06
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1343%44% - - - - .073.1179%12%0.83
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1348%42%19.630.7231.57.511.8206.271.531%33%.487%2.3
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1356%45% - - - - - - 10.31.531%38%.498%1.9
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.24  #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55  #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88  #59
2023 Talent Rating: 620.90  #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.24   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.5   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335  #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89  #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64  #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44  #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2  #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 30
Duke 24

Projected Total Points: 54
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22North Carolina25Duke32Duke -6.5Duke50.5Over
202409/28Duke21North Carolina20North Carolina -1Duke55.5Under
202311/11North Carolina47Duke45North Carolina -9.5Duke52.5Over
202210/15Duke35North Carolina38North Carolina -7Duke70.0Over
202110/02North Carolina38Duke7North Carolina -19.5North Carolina74.0Under
202011/07Duke24North Carolina56North Carolina -11.5North Carolina63.0Over
201910/26North Carolina20Duke17North Carolina -2.5North Carolina52.5Under
201811/10Duke42North Carolina35Duke -7.5North Carolina58.5Over
201709/23North Carolina17Duke27North Carolina -1.5Duke61.0Under
201611/10Duke28North Carolina27North Carolina -10.5Duke66.5Under
201511/07North Carolina66Duke31North Carolina -8North Carolina59.5Over
201411/20Duke20North Carolina45Duke -6North Carolina0
201311/30North Carolina25Duke27North Carolina -5.5Duke0
201210/20Duke33North Carolina30
201111/26North Carolina37Duke21
201011/27Duke19North Carolina24
200911/07North Carolina19Duke6
200811/29Duke20North Carolina28
200711/24North Carolina20Duke14
200611/25Duke44North Carolina45
200511/19North Carolina24Duke21
200411/20Duke17North Carolina40
200311/22North Carolina22Duke30
200111/17North Carolina52Duke17
200011/17Duke21North Carolina59
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1766 Overs
Duke875 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 73 - 53 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 62 - 35 - 3

(#40) DUKE at (#25) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKEUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #40 #25
SP+SP+ #29 #27
Perf GradeGrade #61 #35
OffenseOff #81 #34
DefenseDef #43 #47
Spec TeamsST #49 #119
TalentTal #67 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #69 #18
Duke on Offense
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #47
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #48 #81
SP+SP+ #53 #71
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Duke Run Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #61 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #54
Duke Pass Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #64 #37
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #62 #41
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatUNC OffDUKE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #43
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #20 #59
SP+SP+ #13 #25
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #26 #71
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #89
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatUNC OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #8 #26
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #51
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
North Carolina -9.5 (52.5)
North Carolina won vs Duke this year (47-45)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (32-25)
Duke beat North Carolina in 2024 (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)

  
DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard9516558%1102336.7
Grayson Loftis9116356%1006846.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Waters153819125.483
Jaquez Moore11667465.858
Riley Leonard5835246.144
Jaylen Coleman4616513.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore62835813.549
Jalon Calhoun50666413.369
Sahmir Hagans3026008.723
Nicky Dalmolin1514709.821

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Freeman955263
Jaylen Stinson793106
Nick Morris Jr.572100
Dorian Mausi564112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aeneas Peebles429542
R.J. Oben156551
Terry Moore424322
Brandon Johnson498234
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)431019
Chandler Rivers473017
Jaylen Stinson793106

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375