Duke at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
North Carolina -9.5 (52.5) (-455) Open: -9.5
North Carolina 47 - Duke: 45 (ACC)

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 6th straight game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -5.5 (SP+ UNC -1)
Projected Score: DUKE: 25 - UNC: 31 (55)
UNC Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
DUKE Travel: 9 miles

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.24	44%	26.3	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	24.5	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2
UNC	.3	46%	30.9	45%	3.18	153	47%	309	4.47	.29	48%	28.1	49%	48%	4.51	55.3	1	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	28.4	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24
UNC Defense	14	28.1	33.4	48.3%	4.51	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	48%	12%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	26	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18
UNC Offense	14	30.9	36	46.2%	4.47	1	25	463	153	309	4.2	45%	55%	45%	47%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8
North Carolina	14	29:55	24.6	46%	71%	6.1	55.3	1	1.1	3.4	1.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06
UNC Defense	14	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.25	79%	6%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83
UNC Offense	14	45%	45%	36.4	153.4	4.2	24	.18	3.18	72%	10%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3
UNC Defense	14	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.41	1.6	28%	31%	.4	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9
UNC Offense	14	55%	47%	24.6	37.5	309.3	8.3	12.6	38	7	.41	1.6	32%	40%	.5	4%	1.9

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.24 North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.5 North Carolina: 10.2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 31
Duke 25

Projected Total Points: 55

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Duke	21	North Carolina	20	Duke	North Carolina -1	Duke	55.5	Under
2023	11/11	North Carolina	47	Duke	45	North Carolina	North Carolina -9.5	Duke	52.5	Over
2022	10/15	Duke	35	North Carolina	38	North Carolina	North Carolina -7	Duke	70.0	Over
2021	10/02	North Carolina	38	Duke	7	North Carolina	North Carolina -19.5	North Carolina	74.0	Under
2020	11/07	Duke	24	North Carolina	56	North Carolina	North Carolina -11.5	North Carolina	63.0	Over
2019	10/26	North Carolina	20	Duke	17	North Carolina	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	52.5	Under
2018	11/10	Duke	42	North Carolina	35	Duke	Duke -7.5	North Carolina	58.5	Over
2017	09/23	North Carolina	17	Duke	27	Duke	North Carolina -1.5	Duke	61.0	Under
2016	11/10	Duke	28	North Carolina	27	Duke	North Carolina -10.5	Duke	66.5	Under
2015	11/07	North Carolina	66	Duke	31	North Carolina	North Carolina -8	North Carolina	59.5	Over
2014	11/20	Duke	20	North Carolina	45	North Carolina	Duke -6	North Carolina	0
2013	11/30	North Carolina	25	Duke	27	Duke	North Carolina -5.5	Duke	0
2012	10/20	Duke	33	North Carolina	30	Duke
2011	11/26	North Carolina	37	Duke	21	North Carolina
2010	11/27	Duke	19	North Carolina	24	North Carolina
2009	11/07	North Carolina	19	Duke	6	North Carolina
2008	11/29	Duke	20	North Carolina	28	North Carolina
2007	11/24	North Carolina	20	Duke	14	North Carolina
2006	11/25	Duke	44	North Carolina	45	North Carolina
2005	11/19	North Carolina	24	Duke	21	North Carolina
2004	11/20	Duke	17	North Carolina	40	North Carolina
2003	11/22	North Carolina	22	Duke	30	Duke
2001	11/17	North Carolina	52	Duke	17	North Carolina
2000	11/17	Duke	21	North Carolina	59	North Carolina

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	17	6	5 Overs
Duke	7	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	6 - 6	3 - 5	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 13	6 - 6	1 - 3	5 - 3

(#40) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25
Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00

Team Profile

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,

Duke Ratings Matchup North Carolina

Power #40

#25

Off #48

#20

Def #59

#81

Talent #48

#16

SP+ #29

#27

SP+ Off #53

#13

SP+ Def #25

#71

Rematch from Week 11
North Carolina -9.5 (52.5)
North Carolina won vs Duke this year (47-45)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2022 (38-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 54°

Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | UNC
Depth Chart: DUKE | UNC
Rosters: DUKE | UNC

(#25) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.335 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile

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Duke's OC Kevin Johns

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Riley Leonard	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jordan Waters	95	470	4	4.9	94

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Malik Bowen-Sims	20	203	0	10.2	42
Jordan Waters	15	167	1	11.1	24

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Tyler Santucci

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Ryan Smith	22	8	4	2	2
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Aeneas Peebles	29	6	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tad Hudson	17	26	65%	173	2	0	6.7
Jefferson Boaz	2	5	40%	24	0	0	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
George Pettaway	163	976	5	6.0	31
Elijah Green	29	201	5	6.9	51
D.J. Jones	57	162	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kamari Morales	28	325	6	11.6	54

View North Carolina's Full Roster

North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane (Tr)	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jahvaree Ritzie	38	5	5	5	1
Kevin Hester Jr.	37	4	4	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1
Jahvaree Ritzie	38	5	5	5	1
Kevin Hester Jr.	37	4	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Tayon Holloway	16	2	1	0	5