Wake Forest at North Carolina - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
North Carolina -10.5 (64.5) (-410) Open: -10.0
North Carolina 31 - Wake Forest: 24 (ACC)

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 6 - 1)
Coach Dave Clawson (63 - 61)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -12.5 (SP+ UNC -11)
Projected Score: WAKE: 22 - UNC: 35 (57)
UNC Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
WAKE Travel: 69 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WAKE Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T	-20.5
Sat 9/7	Wake Forest vs Virginia	+1.5	55.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Wake Forest vs Ole Miss	+20.5	65.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wake Forest vs Louisiana	-3.0	59.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wake Forest at NC State	+4.0	52.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wake Forest vs Clemson	+21.0	63.0	L 14 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/19	Wake Forest at UConn	-2.5	55.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wake Forest at Stanford	-3.0	53.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	Wake Forest vs California	+7.5	54.5	L 36 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/16	Wake Forest at North Carolina	+10.5	64.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wake Forest at Miami	+23.5	67.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/30	Wake Forest vs Duke	+3.5	53.5	L 17 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#122 (.07)	41% (76)	28.1	42% (85)	2.97 (97)	130	42% (65)	196	3.03 (124)	#89 (.21)	41% (49)	22.1	40% (40)	42% (74)	4.25 (110)	38.8	1.8	1.3
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	19.3	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	24.5	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Offense	12	28.1	24.8	41.4%	3.03	1.8	20	326	130	196	3.3	54%	45%	42%	42%	24%	.07
UNC Defense	13	24.5	26	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Defense	12	22.1	27.4	40.5%	4.25	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	17%	.21
UNC Offense	13	19.3	21	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wake Forest	12	29:05	19.9	34%	42%	4.1	38.8	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	1	30.7
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense	12	54% (35)	42% (85)	39	130.4	3.3	13 (108)	.02 (124)	2.97 (97)	63% (122)	15% (132)	0.79 (132)
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense	12	51% (79)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.06 (25)	3.11 (71)	64% (20)	11% (31)	0.89 (24)
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense	12	45% (101)	42% (65)	16	26.8	196	7.3	12.3	14 (106)	12 (85)	.19 (98)	1.6 (81)	31% (53)	29% (77)	.24 (96)	9% (131)	1.9 (110)
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense	12	48% (54)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.4 (120)	1.7 (113)	33% (53)	29% (46)	.4 (105)	5% (102)	2.3 (127)
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -10.36 #102
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 311.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Wake Forest's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wake Forest's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -10.36 North Carolina: 4.235

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -5.7 North Carolina: 5.0

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.235 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 460.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 35
Wake Forest 22

Projected Total Points: 57

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	12	Wake Forest -3.5	Wake Forest	37.5	Over
2024	11/16	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina -10.5	Wake Forest	64.5	Under
2022	11/12	Wake Forest	34	North Carolina	36	Wake Forest -4.5	North Carolina	79.0	Under
2021	11/06	North Carolina	58	Wake Forest	55	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	78.0	Over
2020	11/14	North Carolina	59	Wake Forest	53	North Carolina -13	Wake Forest	70.5	Over
2019	09/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	18	Wake Forest -3	Wake Forest	65.0	Under
2015	10/17	North Carolina	50	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	53.5	Over
2012	09/08	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	27
2011	10/29	North Carolina	49	Wake Forest	24
2007	10/27	Wake Forest	37	North Carolina	10
2006	10/28	North Carolina	17	Wake Forest	24
2004	11/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	31
2003	11/08	North Carolina	42	Wake Forest	34
2002	10/26	Wake Forest	31	North Carolina	0
2001	11/10	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	32
2000	09/08	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	9	3	4 Overs
Wake Forest	7	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 11	3 - 4	0 - 0	3 - 4

(#102) WAKE at (#68) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WAKE	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#102	#68
SP+SP+	#93	#49
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#74
OffenseOff	#67	#67
DefenseDef	#66	#97
Spec TeamsST	#53	#9
TalentTal	#70	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#22

Wake Forest Notes(12/18) Hired HC Dickert (Wazzu)
(12/16) HC Clawson stepping down after 11 years
(11/25) Off abysmal vs Miami. Def all 40+ pts per in Nov
(11/18) Run D torched by NC. 2 QBs meh, Rgame bad
(11/13) Def (pass) torched by Cal, Rgame is awful, QB OK
(10/12) Have no answers other than pray for TOs
(10/6) Def #'s are near worst in CFB. Big W @ NC St
(9/28) Even game w/ Louisiana, Bach good, Rgame good
(9/8) Bach 403 yds but bad L (UVA), Pass D awful.
(8/19) New QB Bachmeier, WR ? w/ leader gone (Neb)
(8/19) 3 OL return off great unit LY, RB mid at best
(8/19) Def avg LY, bad in red zone, DL good, DBs big ?
Wake Forest Injury Report

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Wake Forest on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#97
SuccessSuc	#76	#70
ExplosiveExp	#123	#71
PPAPPA	#122	#86
PowerPwr	#98	#77
SP+SP+	#77	#64
Pts POPPO	#124	#35
HavocHav	#133	#92

Wake Forest Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#120	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#85	#68
Run ExplRExp	#132	#81
PPAExp	#124	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#97	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#124
TackleTak	-	#40

Wake Forest Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#64
PPAExp	#98	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#37	#64
F7 HavocF7	#132	#85
DB HavocDB	#131	#92

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#66
SuccessSuc	#19	#49
ExplosiveExp	#59	#82
PPAPPA	#17	#89
PowerPwr	#86	#115
SP+SP+	#38	#103
Pts POPPO	#45	#110
HavocHav	#17	#61

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#15	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#40
Run ExplRExp	#48	#24
PPAExp	#9	#25
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#71
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#94
TackleTak	-	#24

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#113
PPAExp	#47	#120
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#110
F7 HavocF7	#31	#31
DB HavocDB	#24	#102

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
North Carolina -10.5 (64.5)
North Carolina won vs Wake Forest this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat North Carolina last year (28-12)
North Carolina beat Wake Forest in 2024 (31-24)

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	224	357	63%	2593	16	10	7.3
Michael Kern	24	45	53%	288	1	3	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	228	1048	11	4.6	60
Tate Carney	82	335	6	4.1	18
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	96	141	1	1.5	20
Ty Clark III	13	57	0	4.4	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taylor Morin	64	756	2	11.8	51
Horatio Fields	39	463	4	11.9	42
Deuce Alexander	36	400	2	11.1	38
Donavon Greene	23	380	3	16.5	45

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Andersen	122	1	0	1	1
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1
Dylan Hazen	78	6	1	3	0
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	31	11	6	5	0
Kevin Pointer	33	7	4	8	1
Bryce Ganious	26	5	3	7	0
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
C'Darius Kelley	20	0	4
Jamare Glasker	37	3	4
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	3

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4