Minnesota at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (51.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
North Carolina 31 - Minnesota: 13

 
Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -15   (SP+ UNC -12)

Projected Score: MINN: 20 - UNC: 35 (54)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MINN Travel: 971 miles, 1 hrs behind
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (41 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Minnesota vs Nebraska-7.543.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 9/9 Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan-19.548.0W 25 - 6UN
Sat 9/16 Minnesota at North Carolina+7.051.0L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/23 Minnesota at Northwestern-11.539.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Minnesota vs Louisiana-9.549.0W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/7 Minnesota vs Michigan+18.546.0L 10 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Minnesota at Iowa+3.030.5W 12 - 10UY
Sat 10/28 Minnesota vs Michigan State-6.541.5W 27 - 12UY
Sat 11/4 Minnesota vs Illinois-1.543.0L 26 - 27ON
Sat 11/11 Minnesota at Purdue-1.548.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Minnesota at Ohio State+27.551.5L 3 - 37UN
Sat 11/25 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+1.542.0L 14 - 28UN
Tue 12/26 Minnesota vs Bowling Green-2.545.0W 30 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#118 (.09)41% (87)20.944% (53)3.15 (61)15836% (116)1433.85 (73)#93 (.22)43% (75)26.745% (90)41% (63)4.67 (129)27.11.31.5
UNC#17 (.3)47% (19)34.550% (16)3.41 (11)19344% (44)2994.13 (45)#86 (.21)42% (70)27.343% (68)42% (76)3.41 (35)66.31.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense1320.918.440.5%3.851.3183011581434.159%40%44%36%13%.09
UNC Defense1327.32442.2%3.411.7 - - - - - 50%49%43%42%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1326.732.842.6%4.671.5 - - - - - 47%51%45%41%11%.22
UNC Offense1334.540.746.8%4.131.3254921932995.146%53%50%44%13%.3

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1331:4918.235%82%327.11.31.53.21.6029
North Carolina1328:3424.549%45%7.266.31.31.75.42.1131.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1359% (12)44% (53)38.8157.54.113 (108).11 (92)3.15 (61)75% (52)7% (13)0.83 (127)
UNC Defense1350% (70)43% (68) - - - - .2 (100)3.33 (112)73% (68)10% (85)1.02 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1347% (34)45% (90) - - - - .2 (102)3.15 (79)80% (109)7% (132)0.99 (63)
UNC Offense1346% (97)50% (16)38.2193.25.128 (25).28 (9)3.41 (11)75% (52)8% (31)1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1340% (121)36% (116)12.624143.4611.416 (92)11 (68).1 (123)1.6 (53)29% (26)27% (99).16 (117)6% (52)1.9 (106)
UNC Defense1349% (63)42% (76) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (82)1.6 (64)34% (43)34% (117).38 (100)6% (92)1.9 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1351% (94)41% (63) - - - - - - 12 (37).29 (83)1.6 (73)30% (106)30% (71).42 (112)5% (116)2.2 (105)
UNC Offense1353% (36)44% (44)22.535.4298.58.413.326 (31)11 (68).34 (47)1.6 (73)30% (33)32% (56).38 (55)5% (24)2.2 (21)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -4.18 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -4.18   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -1.3   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 35
Minnesota 20


Total Points: 54

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.7
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/29Minnesota17North Carolina19North CarolinaNorth Carolina -2.0NA52.5Under
202309/16North Carolina31Minnesota13North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7North Carolina51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina210 Overs
Minnesota002 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#88) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: -4.18 #88
Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20


Minnesota has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (1 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota has a really bad Offense
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)
Minnesota pass game is really bad (#31)
Minnesota has a bad red zone defense (#77)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUNCMINN
OverallOver#29#56
OffenseOff#31#57
DefenseDef#39#69
Special TeamsST#96#75
PassingPass#7#91
RushingRush#18#30
Run BlockRBLK#76#30
Pass BlockPBLK#37#59
Route RunningWR Rt#48#93
TacklingTkl#47#96
Run DefenseR Def#51#94
Pass Rush DefPRush#35#27
Coverage DefCov#31#69

Rematch from Week 3
North Carolina -7.0 (51.0)
North Carolina won vs Minnesota this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Minnesota last year (19-17)
North Carolina beat Minnesota in 2023 (31-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MINN | UNC
Depth Chart: MINN | UNC
Rosters: MINN | UNC
(#25) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 12.335 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80


North Carolina has won 2 straight
North Carolina has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has Really Good Running Game (#93)
North Carolina offense is efficent (#105)
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina offense is good on 3rd downs
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)


North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)


  
Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Athan Kaliakmanis15629453%18381496.3
Cole Kramer81747%26221.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor13879955.843
Jordan Nubin12755934.421
Sean Tyler (Tr)6124204.019
Zach Evans5223014.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson59831814.139
Corey Crooms (Tr)28376013.432
Brevyn Spann-Ford2523929.631
Darius Taylor119208.425

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Nick Monroe
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Henderson (Tr)524001
Tre'Von Jones514106
Tyler Nubin501103
Maverick Baranowski484111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jah Joyner188820
Danny Striggow426620
Kyler Baugh395333
Jalen Logan-Redding293211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley382008
Tre'Von Jones514106
Tyler Nubin501103

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375