Notre Dame at North Carolina - 2022 Matchup Preview

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 24th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (55.0)
Notre Dame 45 - North Carolina: 32

Fighting Irish (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC coming off BYE
ND is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ ND -2.5)
Projected Score: ND: 33 - UNC: 19 (52)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 556 miles

Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ND Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Notre Dame's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Notre Dame at Ohio State	+17.0	58.5	L 10 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Notre Dame vs Marshall	-20.5	48.0	L 21 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/17	Notre Dame vs California	-13.5	41.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/24	Notre Dame at North Carolina	+2.5	55.0	W 45 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Notre Dame vs BYU	-4.0	51.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Notre Dame vs Stanford	-16.5	53.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 10/22	Notre Dame vs UNLV	-26.0	46.5	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 10/29	Notre Dame at Syracuse	+1.0	48.0	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Notre Dame vs Clemson	+3.5	43.5	W 35 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Notre Dame vs Navy	-17.0	40.5	W 35 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/19	Notre Dame vs Boston College	-20.0	42.0	W 44 - 0	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Notre Dame at USC	+4.0	63.5	L 27 - 38	O	N
Fri 12/30	Notre Dame vs South Carolina	-5.0	50.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	North Carolina vs Florida A&M	-45.0	55.0	W 56 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/3	North Carolina at App State	+3.0	56.0	W 63 - 61	O	Y
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Georgia State	-7.0	64.0	W 35 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	-2.5	55.0	L 32 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	57.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina at Miami	+4.0	67.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Duke	-7.0	70.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-2.5	65.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	North Carolina at Virginia	-7.0	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/12	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+4.5	79.0	W 36 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-21.5	63.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-6.5	56.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 12/3	North Carolina vs Clemson	+7.5	64.0	L 10 - 39	U	N
Wed 12/28	North Carolina vs Oregon	+13.0	76.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	.26	43%	42	41%	2.86	144	46%	282	4.33	.1	39%	17.6	38%	40%	2.9	49.4	1.2	2.1
UNC	.28	46%	19.3	51%	3.43	213	41%	256	4.53	.26	46%	24.5	49%	43%	4.24	69.2	1.1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Offense	13	42	38.2	43.4%	4.33	1.2	22	426	144	282	4.1	45%	55%	41%	46%	17%	.26
UNC Defense	13	24.5	26	45.9%	4.24	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	49%	43%	15%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Defense	13	17.6	17	39%	2.9	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	40%	17%	.1
UNC Offense	13	19.3	21	46.3%	4.53	1.1	24	468	213	256	5.4	52%	48%	51%	41%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Notre Dame	13	29:53	22.2	42%	53%	5.6	49.4	1.2	2.1	6.5	3.2	4	28.5
North Carolina	13	29:41	23.8	43%	58%	7.3	69.2	1.1	1.2	5.5	2.2	0	28.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Offense	13	45%	41%	34.7	143.7	4.1	23	.13	2.86	67%	11%	0.97
UNC Defense	13	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.29	82%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Defense	13	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	12%	1.02
UNC Offense	13	52%	51%	39.5	212.7	5.4	30	.37	3.43	71%	12%	1.21

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Offense	13	55%	46%	22.2	34.6	282.5	8.2	12.7	30	10	.37	1.7	32%	34%	.43	6%	2.1
UNC Defense	13	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.36	1.7	30%	29%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Defense	13	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.11	1.4	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.1
UNC Offense	13	48%	41%	18.2	29.4	255.7	8.7	14	26	9	.22	1.6	30%	38%	.54	5%	2.2

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Notre Dame's 2022 Expected Record: -
Notre Dame's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #56
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #36

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: North Carolina: 6.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 10.3 North Carolina: 7.8

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 6.4 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 33
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 52

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/24	North Carolina	32	Notre Dame	45	North Carolina -2.5	Notre Dame	55.0	Over
2021	10/30	Notre Dame	44	North Carolina	34	Notre Dame -3.5	Notre Dame	63.0	Over
2020	11/27	North Carolina	17	Notre Dame	31	Notre Dame -4.5	Notre Dame	69.5	Under
2017	10/07	North Carolina	10	Notre Dame	33	Notre Dame -13	Notre Dame	63.5	Under
2014	10/11	Notre Dame	50	North Carolina	43	Notre Dame -16	North Carolina	0
2008	10/11	North Carolina	29	Notre Dame	24
2006	11/04	Notre Dame	45	North Carolina	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	1	1	2 Overs
Notre Dame	6	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1

(#) ND at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ND	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#46
Perf GradeGrade	#18	#65
OffenseOff	#16	#43
DefenseDef	#44	#102
Spec TeamsST	#6	#25
TalentTal	#10	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Notre Dame Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Notre Dame on Offense


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Notre Dame Run Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#58	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#20

Notre Dame Pass Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#62
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#36
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#62	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#7

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Declining Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
North Carolina -2.5 (55.0)
Notre Dame won at North Carolina this year (45-32)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ND's OC Tommy Rees (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD