Duke at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -19.5 (74.0)
North Carolina 38 - Duke: 7 (ACC)

Blue Devils (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Cutcliffe (76 - 89)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC is playing their 5th straight game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -12.5 (SP+ UNC -20)
Projected Score: DUKE: 31 - UNC: 24 (55)
UNC Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
DUKE Travel: 9 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Duke at Charlotte	-6.0	60.0	L 28 - 31	U	N
Fri 9/10	Duke vs North Carolina A&T	-22.5	55.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	50.0	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Duke vs Kansas	-16.5	57.5	W 52 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Duke at North Carolina	+19.5	74.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/9	Duke vs Georgia Tech	+4.5	60.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Duke at Virginia	+10.5	69.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Duke at Wake Forest	+16.5	71.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Duke vs Pittsburgh	+21.0	64.5	L 29 - 54	O	N
Sat 11/13	Duke at Virginia Tech	+13.5	50.5	L 17 - 48	O	N
Thu 11/18	Duke vs Louisville	+20.0	60.0	L 22 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/27	Duke vs Miami	+20.5	67.0	L 10 - 47	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.06	39%	34.6	39%	2.33	157	40%	222	2.68	.28	43%	29.4	45%	40%	4.55	50.4	3.5	1.8
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	11	34.6	37	39.1%	2.68	3.5	22	379	157	222	3.9	47%	53%	39%	40%	20%	.06
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	11	29.4	27.5	42.8%	4.55	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	45%	40%	16%	.28
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	11	28:29	21.5	39%	48%	5.6	50.4	3.5	1.8	6.1	2.8	1	29.3
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	11	47%	39%	39.8	156.7	3.9	19	.03	2.33	68%	13%	1.05
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	11	53%	45%	-	-	-	-	.26	3.15	78%	11%	1.24
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	11	53%	40%	19.9	35.5	221.9	6.3	11.2	11	19	.12	1.5	31%	33%	.28	7%	1.9
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	11	47%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.3	1.8	32%	35%	.51	5%	2.1
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Duke's 2021 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #114
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #97
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #119

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: -13.5 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 31
North Carolina 24

Projected Total Points: 55

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	North Carolina	25	Duke	32	Duke -6.5	Duke	50.5	Over
2024	09/28	Duke	21	North Carolina	20	North Carolina -1	Duke	55.5	Under
2023	11/11	North Carolina	47	Duke	45	North Carolina -9.5	Duke	52.5	Over
2022	10/15	Duke	35	North Carolina	38	North Carolina -7	Duke	70.0	Over
2021	10/02	North Carolina	38	Duke	7	North Carolina -19.5	North Carolina	74.0	Under
2020	11/07	Duke	24	North Carolina	56	North Carolina -11.5	North Carolina	63.0	Over
2019	10/26	North Carolina	20	Duke	17	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	52.5	Under
2018	11/10	Duke	42	North Carolina	35	Duke -7.5	North Carolina	58.5	Over
2017	09/23	North Carolina	17	Duke	27	North Carolina -1.5	Duke	61.0	Under
2016	11/10	Duke	28	North Carolina	27	North Carolina -10.5	Duke	66.5	Under
2015	11/07	North Carolina	66	Duke	31	North Carolina -8	North Carolina	59.5	Over
2014	11/20	Duke	20	North Carolina	45	Duke -6	North Carolina	0
2013	11/30	North Carolina	25	Duke	27	North Carolina -5.5	Duke	0
2012	10/20	Duke	33	North Carolina	30
2011	11/26	North Carolina	37	Duke	21
2010	11/27	Duke	19	North Carolina	24
2009	11/07	North Carolina	19	Duke	6
2008	11/29	Duke	20	North Carolina	28
2007	11/24	North Carolina	20	Duke	14
2006	11/25	Duke	44	North Carolina	45
2005	11/19	North Carolina	24	Duke	21
2004	11/20	Duke	17	North Carolina	40
2003	11/22	North Carolina	22	Duke	30
2001	11/17	North Carolina	52	Duke	17
2000	11/17	Duke	21	North Carolina	59

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	17	6	6 Overs
Duke	8	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	6 - 7	3 - 5	3 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 6	2 - 3	5 - 3

(#) DUKE at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#114	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#64
OffenseOff	#96	#30
DefenseDef	#124	#106
Spec TeamsST	#24	#36
TalentTal	#60	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Duke Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#97	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#115	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#69	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#74	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#124
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#119
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#2	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#113
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
North Carolina -19.5 (74.0)
North Carolina won vs Duke this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (32-25)
Duke beat North Carolina in 2024 (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)

DUKE's OC Re'Quan Boyette (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Ben Albert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD