Wake Forest at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 6th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (78.0)
North Carolina 58 - Wake Forest: 55 (ACC)

Demon Deacons (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (43 - 45)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ WAKE -3.5)
Projected Score: WAKE: 26 - UNC: 23 (49)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
WAKE Travel: 69 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WAKE Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wake Forest's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Wake Forest vs Old Dominion	-32.5	61.5	W 42 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/11	Wake Forest vs Norfolk State	-43.0	58.0	W 41 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/18	Wake Forest vs Florida State	-4.5	63.0	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Fri 9/24	Wake Forest at Virginia	+3.5	71.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Wake Forest vs Louisville	-7.0	64.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/9	Wake Forest at Syracuse	-5.5	59.0	W 40 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Wake Forest at Army	-3.0	53.5	W 70 - 56	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Wake Forest vs Duke	-16.5	71.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Wake Forest at North Carolina	+2.5	78.0	L 55 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/13	Wake Forest vs NC State	-1.0	65.0	W 45 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Wake Forest at Clemson	+3.5	57.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/27	Wake Forest at Boston College	-5.5	64.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/4	Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh	+3.5	72.5	L 21 - 45	U	N
Fri 12/31	Wake Forest vs Rutgers	-17.0	63.0	W 38 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	.23	42%	28.1	41%	2.76	166	42%	281	4.24	.22	47%	22.1	48%	45%	4.23	44.6	0.8	1.9
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Offense	9	28.1	24.8	41.5%	4.24	0.8	24	447	166	281	3.9	50%	50%	41%	42%	16%	.23
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Defense	9	22.1	27.4	46.7%	4.23	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	48%	45%	18%	.22
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wake Forest	9	27:23	23.6	40%	48%	5.3	44.6	0.8	1.9	7.6	1.8	4	29.1
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense	9	50%	41%	42	165.7	3.9	22	.06	2.76	80%	11%	0.87
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense	9	54%	48%	-	-	-	-	.19	2.65	82%	12%	1.06
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense	9	50%	42%	19.4	34.4	281.4	8.2	14.5	14	5	.39	1.8	34%	30%	.42	6%	2.3
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense	9	46%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.24	1.5	30%	33%	.2	6%	1.9
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: NR
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: NR
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Wake Forest's 2021 Expected Record: -
Wake Forest's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #39
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.0 #10
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #92

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 10.1 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Wake Forest 26
North Carolina 23

Projected Total Points: 49

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	12	Wake Forest -3.5	Wake Forest	37.5	Over
2024	11/16	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina -10.5	Wake Forest	64.5	Under
2022	11/12	Wake Forest	34	North Carolina	36	Wake Forest -4.5	North Carolina	79.0	Under
2021	11/06	North Carolina	58	Wake Forest	55	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	78.0	Over
2020	11/14	North Carolina	59	Wake Forest	53	North Carolina -13	Wake Forest	70.5	Over
2019	09/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	18	Wake Forest -3	Wake Forest	65.0	Under
2015	10/17	North Carolina	50	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	53.5	Over
2012	09/08	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	27
2011	10/29	North Carolina	49	Wake Forest	24
2007	10/27	Wake Forest	37	North Carolina	10
2006	10/28	North Carolina	17	Wake Forest	24
2004	11/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	31
2003	11/08	North Carolina	42	Wake Forest	34
2002	10/26	Wake Forest	31	North Carolina	0
2001	11/10	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	32
2000	09/08	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	9	3	4 Overs
Wake Forest	7	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 11	3 - 4	0 - 0	3 - 4

(#) WAKE at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WAKE	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#64
OffenseOff	#10	#30
DefenseDef	#54	#106
Spec TeamsST	#80	#36
TalentTal	#62	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Wake Forest Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Wake Forest on Offense


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#10	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wake Forest Run Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#61	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#45	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Wake Forest Pass Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#54
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#92
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#2	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#68

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
North Carolina -2.5 (78.0)
North Carolina won vs Wake Forest this year (58-55)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat North Carolina last year (28-12)
North Carolina beat Wake Forest in 2024 (31-24)

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD