Florida State at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -17.5 (64.5)
Florida State 35 - North Carolina: 25 (ACC)

Seminoles (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 6th straight game
FSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ FSU -1)
Projected Score: FSU: 26 - UNC: 23 (49)
UNC Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
FSU Travel: 485 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/5	Florida State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	53.5	L 38 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Florida State vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/18	Florida State at Wake Forest	+4.5	63.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/25	Florida State vs Louisville	-1.5	61.0	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/2	Florida State vs Syracuse	-5.5	50.0	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/9	Florida State at North Carolina	+17.5	64.5	W 35 - 25	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Florida State vs Massachusetts	-35.0	59.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Florida State at Clemson	+9.5	47.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/6	Florida State vs NC State	+3.0	55.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	Florida State vs Miami	+2.5	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Florida State at Boston College	+3.0	55.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Florida State at Florida	+4.0	58.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	.19	41%	33	50%	3.27	199	32%	197	3.19	.26	48%	22	48%	48%	4.01	79.2	1.9	1.6
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	9	33	18.6	41.4%	3.19	1.9	21	395	199	197	5.1	52%	48%	50%	32%	19%	.19
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	9	22	30.2	47.6%	4.01	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	48%	14%	.26
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	9	30:29	20.6	36%	54%	8.9	79.2	1.9	1.6	5.4	1.1	1	28.3
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	9	52%	50%	39	198.8	5.1	19	.35	3.27	82%	12%	1.19
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	9	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.2	2.92	66%	10%	1.1
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	9	48%	32%	17.8	32.6	196.7	6	11.1	10	13	.01	1.6	34%	29%	.33	8%	2.1
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	9	47%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.34	1.6	28%	38%	.58	5%	2.2
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Florida State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6 #53
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #37

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.6 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 26
North Carolina 23

Projected Total Points: 49

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Florida State	11	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	50.5	Under
2021	10/09	North Carolina	25	Florida State	35	North Carolina -17.5	Florida State	64.5	Under
2020	10/17	Florida State	31	North Carolina	28	North Carolina -13.5	Florida State	65.0	Under
2016	10/01	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37	Florida State -12	North Carolina	72.5	Under
2010	11/06	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37
2009	10/22	North Carolina	27	Florida State	30
2004	10/02	Florida State	38	North Carolina	16
2003	08/30	North Carolina	0	Florida State	37
2001	09/22	North Carolina	41	Florida State	9
2000	09/15	Florida State	63	North Carolina	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	4	2	0 Overs
Florida State	6	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	1 - 3	0 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 4	3 - 1	1 - 1	2 - 0

(#) FSU at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#53	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#82	#64
OffenseOff	#99	#30
DefenseDef	#25	#106
Spec TeamsST	#110	#36
TalentTal	#20	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Florida State Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#80	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#25
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#2	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
North Carolina -17.5 (64.5)
Florida State won at North Carolina this year (35-25)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Florida State in 2024 (35-11)

FSU's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD