East Tennessee State at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
East Tennessee State logo East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC

 
Buccaneers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 17 - 72 (17 - 72 on Road)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: North Carolina -1.5  (SP+ UNC -7)
UNC Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
East Tennessee State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12 East Tennessee State at North Carolina+1.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Tennessee State's Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ETSU0%170%000%000%720%0%0000
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ETSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ETSU Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UNC Defense1224.52640.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ETSU Defense172720%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UNC Offense1219.32138.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
East Tennessee State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ETSU Offense10%0%000000%0%0
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ETSU Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ETSU Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ETSU Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)

East Tennessee State's Power Ratings
East Tennessee State's Power Rating: NR
East Tennessee State's Offense Rating: NR
East Tennessee State's Defense Rating: NR
2026 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
East Tennessee State's 2026 Expected Record: -
East Tennessee State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
East Tennessee State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
East Tennessee State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southern Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
East Tennessee State:    North Carolina: 1.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Tennessee State:    North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.485  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


East Tennessee State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 72 PPG
Defense on Road: 72

East Tennessee State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 34
East Tennessee State 33

Projected Total Points: 67
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina000 Overs
East Tennessee State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#NR) ETSU at (#45) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatETSUUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #45
SP+SP+NR #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTalNR #13
Blue ChipsBC%NR #29
East Tennessee State on Offense
CategoryCat
ETSU OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #60
ExplosiveExpNR #62
PPAPPANR #78
PowerPwrNR #32
SP+SP+NR #58
Pts POPPONR #61
HavocHavNR #91
East Tennessee State Run Game
CategoryCat
ETSU OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #64
Run ExplRExpNR #88
PPAExpNR #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #37
Stuff RateStuffNR #99
TackleTak - NR
East Tennessee State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ETSU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #50
Pass ExplPExlNR #17
PPAExpNR #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #70
DB HavocDBNR #90
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffETSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115NR
ExplosiveExp #121NR
PPAPPA #119NR
PowerPwr #67NR
SP+SP+ #123NR
Pts POPPO #108NR
HavocHav #94NR
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffETSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121NR
Run ExplRExp #127NR
PPAExp #130NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110NR
Stuff RateStuff #67NR
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffETSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98NR
Pass ExplPExl #103NR
PPAExp #92NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111NR
DB HavocDB #55NR
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

ETSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ETSU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jadyn Davis (Tr)020%0010.0
Jason Albritton11100%-900-9.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jason Albritton10451885.060
D'Marius Rucker156714.515
TJ Peyton (Tr)126505.449
Jadyn Davis (Tr)1-60-6.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Charlie Browder15222214.828
Suderian Harrison (Tr)262031.056
Jackson Crosby53106.215
Tommy Winton III (Tr)32608.712

View East Tennessee State's Full Roster

ETSU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Davis Jr50010
Tyreek'e Robinson (Tr)10000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Davis Jr50010
Tyreek'e Robinson (Tr)10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Davis Jr50010
Tyreek'e Robinson (Tr)10000

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002