North Carolina at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Thursday, August 29th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.0 (52.5) (115) Open: -2.5 | 51.0
North Carolina 19 - Minnesota: 17

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Minnesota -11 (SP+ MINN -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 18 - MINN: 29 (48)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UNC Travel: 971 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Minnesota vs North Carolina	+2.0	52.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Minnesota vs Rhode Island	-27.5	47.5	W 48 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Minnesota vs Nevada	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Minnesota vs Iowa	+3.0	34.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Minnesota at Michigan	+10.5	34.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Minnesota vs USC	+8.5	45.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Minnesota at UCLA	-3.5	39.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Minnesota vs Maryland	-6.0	45.0	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Minnesota at Illinois	-2.5	47.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Minnesota at Rutgers	-6.5	44.5	L 19 - 26	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Minnesota vs Penn State	+11.0	45.0	L 25 - 26	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Minnesota at Wisconsin	-1.5	40.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/3	Minnesota vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	19.3	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	24.5	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	23	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	22.9	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3
MINN Defense	13	22.9	13	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21
MINN Offense	13	23	30.1	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 460.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53 Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0 Minnesota: 10.4

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 417.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 29
North Carolina 18

Projected Total Points: 48

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/29	Minnesota	17	North Carolina	19	North Carolina -2.0	NA	52.5	Under
2023	09/16	North Carolina	31	Minnesota	13	North Carolina -7	North Carolina	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	0	0	0 Overs
North Carolina	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#68) UNC at (#32) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#68	#32
SP+SP+	#49	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#74	#24
OffenseOff	#67	#43
DefenseDef	#97	#25
Spec TeamsST	#9	#1
TalentTal	#21	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	#22	#48

North Carolina Notes(12/11) Hired HC Bill Belichick (Pats/NFL)
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
(7/30) New QB Max Johnson (A&M), WR look mid
North Carolina Injury Report

Minnesota Notes(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent
(7/30) OL returns 3/5, RB v good, Run game good LY
Minnesota Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#25
SuccessSuc	#19	#75
ExplosiveExp	#59	#75
PPAPPA	#17	#93
PowerPwr	#86	#14
SP+SP+	#38	#11
Pts POPPO	#45	#129
HavocHav	#17	#131

North Carolina Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#15	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#90
Run ExplRExp	#48	#63
PPAExp	#9	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#91
TackleTak	-	#89

North Carolina Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNC Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#73
PPAExp	#47	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#68
F7 HavocF7	#31	#132
DB HavocDB	#24	#116

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#97
SuccessSuc	#87	#70
ExplosiveExp	#128	#71
PPAPPA	#118	#86
PowerPwr	#37	#77
SP+SP+	#79	#64
Pts POPPO	#73	#35
HavocHav	#14	#92

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#74	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#68
Run ExplRExp	#127	#81
PPAExp	#92	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#124
TackleTak	-	#40

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#64
PPAExp	#123	#82
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#64
F7 HavocF7	#13	#85
DB HavocDB	#52	#92

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
North Carolina 2.0 (52.5)
North Carolina won at Minnesota this year (19-17)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Minnesota in 2024 (19-17)
North Carolina beat Minnesota in 2023 (31-13)

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	186	320	58%	2459	15	6	7.7
Conner Harrell	21	37	57%	282	2	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)	71	103	3	1.5	20
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Geoff Collins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Amare Campbell	69	9	6	3	2
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jakeen Harris (Tr)	67	1	0	0	4

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)	268	403	67%	2829	18	6	7.0
Drake Lindsey	4	5	80%	50	1	0	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	205	986	10	4.8	80
Marcus Major (Tr)	78	352	3	4.5	40
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	19	123	0	6.5	18
Jordan Nubin	11	19	0	1.7	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	75	863	4	11.5	39
Elijah Spencer	52	685	6	13.2	29
Darius Taylor	54	350	2	6.5	22
Jameson Geers	27	286	4	10.6	23

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6
Maverick Baranowski	65	5	1	1	2
Kerry Brown	63	3	0	0	4
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	27	12	6	10	1
Jack Henderson	44	9	6	1	1
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10
Ethan Robinson (Tr)	42	3	0	0	9
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7