North Carolina at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota logo
Thursday, August 29th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.0 (52.5) (115)  Open: -2.5 | 51.0
North Carolina 19 - Minnesota: 17

 
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Minnesota -11   (SP+ MINN -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 20 - MINN: 31 (51)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UNC Travel: 971 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 North Carolina at Minnesota-2.052.5W 19 - 17UN
Sat 9/7 North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.547.5W 38 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.557.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 North Carolina vs James Madison-10.048.0L 50 - 70ON
Sat 9/28 North Carolina at Duke-1.055.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 10/5 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.563.0L 24 - 34UN
Sat 10/12 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.560.5L 34 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 North Carolina at Virginia+3.558.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 North Carolina at Florida State-2.550.5W 35 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.564.5W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/23 North Carolina at Boston College-2.050.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 North Carolina vs NC State-2.554.5L 30 - 35ON
Sat 12/28 North Carolina vs UConn-2.053.5L 14 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.052.5L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/7 Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.547.5W 48 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Minnesota vs Nevada-17.544.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Minnesota vs Iowa+3.034.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Minnesota at Michigan+10.534.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Minnesota vs USC+8.545.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Minnesota at UCLA-3.539.0W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Minnesota vs Maryland-6.045.0W 48 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Minnesota at Illinois-2.547.0W 25 - 17UY
Sat 11/9 Minnesota at Rutgers-6.544.5L 19 - 26ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Minnesota vs Penn State+11.045.0L 25 - 26OY
Fri 11/29 Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.540.5W 24 - 7UY
Fri 1/3 Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
MINN Defense1316.916.638.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
MINN Offense1326.22944.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53   Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0   Minnesota: 10.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 31
North Carolina 20


Total Points: 51

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.6

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/29Minnesota17North Carolina19North CarolinaNorth Carolina -2.0NA52.5Under
202309/16North Carolina31Minnesota13North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7North Carolina51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota000 Overs
North Carolina212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#68) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: -1.53 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 3 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)

North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot

North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)

North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMINNUNC
OverallOver#18#51
OffenseOff#37#56
DefenseDef#19#77
Special TeamsST#1#9
PassingPass#11#82
RushingRush#53#13
Run BlockRBLK#29#29
Pass BlockPBLK#68#47
Route RunningWR Rt#53#67
TacklingTkl#77#36
Run DefenseR Def#18#65
Pass Rush DefPRush#60#56
Coverage DefCov#33#83

Rematch from Week 1
North Carolina 2.0 (52.5)
North Carolina won at Minnesota this year (19-17)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Minnesota last year (19-17)
North Carolina beat Minnesota in 2023 (31-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | MINN
Depth Chart: UNC | MINN
Rosters: UNC | MINN
(#32) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 4 - 3 (5 - 1 - 1 vs Spread)

Minnesota Notes
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota offense is good in red zone (#93)
Minnesota offense is good on 3rd downs
Minnesota defense does not give up big plays (#83)
Minnesota defense is really good in red zone (#77)
Minnesota has a good run defense (#6)
Minnesota Defensive Line is very good (#9)
Minnesota Secondary is very good (#76)
Minnesota has a great TO Margin (#82)
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)
Minnesota defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota Can Not Run the Ball (#49)
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)


  
North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)18632058%24591567.7
Conner Harrell213757%282217.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2811660155.975
Davion Gause6732644.921
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)7110331.520
Charleston French108418.445
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones36582616.253
John Copenhaver40414410.435
Omarion Hampton3837329.849
Kobe Paysour21365017.436

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Geoff Collins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Lane744102
Power Echols732126
Amare Campbell699632
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson3512840
Kaimon Rucker308631
Amare Campbell699632
Desmond Evans3410591
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alijah Huzzie364218
Power Echols732126
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004

Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597