Duke at North Carolina Game Matchup
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 4)
UNC is playing their 6th straight game
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Duke -1.5   (SP+ DUKE -3)
Projected Score: DUKE: 30 - UNC: 29 (55)
DUKE Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
DUKE Travel: 9 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Duke vs Elon-29.5
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+5.5
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+0
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-2.5
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse+2
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+22
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.5
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-8.5
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-1.5
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-15.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU-1.557.5
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-19.5
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-25.5
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+21
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California-1.5
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia-4.5
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+6
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-10
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest-6.5
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+1.5
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1326.328.438.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12
UNC Defense1328.133.440.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1324.52637.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
UNC Offense1330.93642%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.91 #47
Duke's Offense Rating: 12.74 #77
Duke's Defense Rating: 5.83 #21
2025 Talent Rating: 820.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #41
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.91   North Carolina: 4.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.9   North Carolina: 2.0




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.385 #62
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #30
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 30
North Carolina 29

Projected Total Points: 55
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Duke21North Carolina20DukeNorth Carolina -1Duke55.5Under
202311/11North Carolina47Duke45North CarolinaNorth Carolina -9.5Duke52.5Over
202210/15Duke35North Carolina38North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7Duke70.0Over
202110/02North Carolina38Duke7North CarolinaNorth Carolina -19.5North Carolina74.0Under
202011/07Duke24North Carolina56North CarolinaNorth Carolina -11.5North Carolina63.0Over
201910/26North Carolina20Duke17North CarolinaNorth Carolina -2.5North Carolina52.5Under
201811/10Duke42North Carolina35DukeDuke -7.5North Carolina58.5Over
201709/23North Carolina17Duke27DukeNorth Carolina -1.5Duke61.0Under
201611/10Duke28North Carolina27DukeNorth Carolina -10.5Duke66.5Under
201511/07North Carolina66Duke31North CarolinaNorth Carolina -8North Carolina59.5Over
201411/20Duke20North Carolina45North CarolinaDuke -6North Carolina0
201311/30North Carolina25Duke27DukeNorth Carolina -5.5Duke0
201210/20Duke33North Carolina30Duke
201111/26North Carolina37Duke21North Carolina
201011/27Duke19North Carolina24North Carolina
200911/07North Carolina19Duke6North Carolina
200811/29Duke20North Carolina28North Carolina
200711/24North Carolina20Duke14North Carolina
200611/25Duke44North Carolina45North Carolina
200511/19North Carolina24Duke21North Carolina
200411/20Duke17North Carolina40North Carolina
200311/22North Carolina22Duke30Duke
200111/17North Carolina52Duke17North Carolina
200011/17Duke21North Carolina59North Carolina
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1765 Overs
Duke765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 116 - 63 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 136 - 61 - 35 - 3

(#47) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.91 #47
Offense Rating: 12.74 #77
Defense Rating: 5.83 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #41
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33
Talent Rating: 820.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Duke Notes
(5/10) Pushed out LY QB Murphy (Oreg St) for Mensah
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
(3/21) WR rebuild, #3/4 back were productive
(3/21) OL 4/5 back, need to improve. Have size
(3/21) Def really good LY. New faces, look good TY
(3/21) DEs Williams/Anthony 12 sacks & 23 TFL.
(3/21) Diaz a good coach, great job LY w/ 9 Ws
Duke     Ratings Matchup     North Carolina
Power #47
#62
Off #77
#61
Def #21
#62
Talent #44
#35
SP+ #41
#54
SP+ Off #65
#39
SP+ Def #33
#74

Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2022 (38-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | UNC
Depth Chart: DUKE | UNC
Rosters: DUKE | UNC
(#62) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.385 #62
Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74
Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #30
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


North Carolina Notes
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9


  
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)17226266%25142059.6
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Anderson Castle (Tr)5024614.921
Darian Mensah (Tr)509111.822
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865
Peyton Jones894111.840
Anderson Castle (Tr)138806.820

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)863016
Terry Moore717105
Tre Freeman674132
Chandler Rivers548138
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Vincent Anthony25105133
Aaron Hall439462
David Anderson132110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Caleb Weaver (Tr)863016
Terry Moore717105

North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez20531166%25571858.2
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Giovanni Lopez8246575.750
Davion Gause6732644.921
Charleston French108418.445
Caleb Hood188104.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Paysour21365017.436
Aziah Johnson (Tr)16276217.352
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson (Tr)527013
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)496133
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pryce Yates (Tr)217451
Andrew Simpson (Tr)4511300
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)83210
C.J. Mims (Tr)214100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House (Tr)331014