Miami at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina logo
Saturday, October 31st 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (35 - 19)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#4)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
UNC 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -22.5  (SP+ MIAMI -27.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 34 - UNC: 11 (45)
MIAMI Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
MIAMI Travel: 691 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Miami's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/4 Miami at Stanford-26.5
Thu 9/10 Miami vs Florida A&M-48
Fri 9/18 Miami at Wake Forest-14.5
Sat 9/26 Miami vs Central Michigan-35
Sat 10/3 Miami at Clemson-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Miami vs Florida State-19
Sat 10/24 Miami vs Pittsburgh-17.5
Sat 10/31 Miami at North Carolina-22.5
Sat 11/7 Miami at Notre Dame+5
Sat 11/14 Miami vs Duke-20
Fri 11/20 Miami vs Virginia Tech-27.5
Sat 11/28 Miami vs Boston College-30

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina vs TCU+12.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-23
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+12.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+10
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-7
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22.5
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn+1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+10.5
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+14
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#35 (.22)46% (23)30.945% (58)3.13 (35)14549% (10)2394.36 (24)#14 (.05)37% (15)14.836% (10)38% (28)2.51 (5)53.50.91.6
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1630.92646.4%4.360.9213841452394.350%48%45%49%12%.22
UNC Defense1224.52640.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1614.81536.6%2.511.6 - - - - - 43%55%36%38%19%.05
UNC Offense1219.32138.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1631:3520.948%67%6.653.50.91.662.9330.2
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1650% (62)45% (58)33.9144.94.326 (40).09 (76)3.13 (35)83% (4)6% (4)0.8 (128)
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1643% (4)36% (10) - - - - .01 (16)2.58 (14)73% (80)12% (15)1.01 (94)
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1648% (79)49% (10)2129238.78.211.431 (61)11 (108).43 (13)1.5 (88)26% (8)32% (44).37 (42)6% (65)2.1 (59)
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1655% (131)38% (28) - - - - - - 16 (55).13 (21)1.5 (29)36% (13)28% (50).21 (29)7% (15)1.9 (29)
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 28.22  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 26.12  #7
Miami's Defense Rating: 0.15  #5
2026 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 60%  #6
Miami's 2026 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 28.22   North Carolina: 2.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.7   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 2.02  #55
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 12.46  #74
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.82  #41
2026 Talent Rating: 1066.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 12  #34
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 34
North Carolina 11

Projected Total Points: 45
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14North Carolina41Miami31North Carolina -2.5North Carolina57.5Over
202210/08Miami24North Carolina27Miami -4North Carolina67.5Under
202110/16North Carolina45Miami42North Carolina -7.5Miami63.5Over
202012/12Miami26North Carolina62Miami -3.0North Carolina72.5Over
201909/07North Carolina28Miami25Miami -5North Carolina46.0Over
201809/27Miami47North Carolina10Miami -17.5Miami56.0Over
201710/28North Carolina19Miami24Miami -21North Carolina56.0Under
201610/15Miami13North Carolina20Miami -7North Carolina67.0Under
201511/14North Carolina59Miami21North Carolina -12.5North Carolina68.5Over
201411/01Miami47North Carolina20Miami -11Miami0
201310/17North Carolina23Miami27Miami -7.5North Carolina0
201210/13Miami14North Carolina18
201110/15North Carolina24Miami30
201010/23Miami33North Carolina10
200911/14North Carolina33Miami24
200809/27Miami24North Carolina28
200710/06North Carolina33Miami27
200610/07Miami27North Carolina7
200510/29Miami34North Carolina16
200410/30North Carolina31Miami28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1286 Overs
Miami833 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 87 - 44 - 43 - 0
Road Teams8 - 124 - 70 - 34 - 4

(#5) MIAMI at (#55) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #5 #55
SP+SP+ #9 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #10 #7
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #34
Miami Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Highest, CFP run, QB Mensah + talent
(2/7) Has never won ACC since joining in 2004
(1/29) OL experience is #120 in CFB, near last in P4
(1/28) QB Mensah, WR Toney, Barkate w great depth
(1/28) RB Fletcher a beast, depth w Pringle + Brown
(1/28) OL biggest ? esp at OT. Have talent but unproven
(1/28) DL front line dominant again, depth will develop
(1/28) CBs are both back, LB has ? beyond Toure
Miami Injury Report
North Carolina Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Low, '25 was a disaster. Can they improve?
(2/7) GM Lombardi has been a disaster. Will sink ship
(2/7) New OC Petrino is great, can he work miracles?
(2/6) LBs counting on portals, esp two from Richmond
(2/6) CBs Cost & Patterson decent duo, S has lots of ?
(2/6) Don't believe in this staff nor this roster
(2/6) QB a big ? Edwards (Wisc), O'Neil (TAMU)?
(2/6) RB is June ready to be RB1? Count on depth?
(2/6) WR Shipp good, can #2 & depth emerge?
(2/6) OL has a lot of ? There's some talent, but lack exp
(2/6) DL has a pair of decent DT's and one proven DE
North Carolina Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #23 #60
ExplosiveExp #126 #62
PPAPPA #35 #78
PowerPwr #7 #41
SP+SP+ #22 #58
Pts POPPO #24 #61
HavocHav #13 #91
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #64
Run ExplRExp #128 #88
PPAExp #76 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #35 #37
Stuff RateStuff #16 #99
TackleTak - NR
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #50
Pass ExplPExl #88 #17
PPAExp #13 #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #4 #70
DB HavocDB #65 #90
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffMIAMI Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #15
ExplosiveExp #121 #81
PPAPPA #119 #14
PowerPwr #74 #5
SP+SP+ #123 #7
Pts POPPO #108 #5
HavocHav #94 #13
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #10
Run ExplRExp #127 #94
PPAExp #130 #16
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #14
Stuff RateStuff #67 #49
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #28
Pass ExplPExl #103 #29
PPAExp #92 #21
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #15
DB HavocDB #55 #15
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Miami in 2023 (41-31)

  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)33450067%39733467.9
Malachi Toney4757%822011.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Cooper Barkate (Tr)721106715.477
Vandrevious Jacobs32548417.174
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure843216
Omar Thornton (Tr)828211
Zechariah Poyser683115
Xavier Lucas452118
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.2299132
Ahmad Moten319540
Marquise Lightfoot256361
Armondo Blount173361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure843216

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taron Dickens (Tr)27136574%35083829.6
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Taron Dickens (Tr)9732113.328
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Mason Humphrey (Tr)35651418.677
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaiden Patterson332005
Kaleb Cost452005
Coleman Bryson160002